Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist Ag Market Outlook Mar. 21, 2019 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Meal Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Ethanol Exports Source: EIA

Global Shares Source: USDA

Arable land

Beef Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Pork Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

Corn Grind for Ethanol

Ethanol Stocks Source: EIA

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Area Planted (mil. acres) 88.0 94.0 90.2 89.1 92.0 Yield (bu./acre) 168.4 174.6 176.6 176.4 176.0 Production (mil. bu.) 13,602 15,148 14,609 14,420 14,890 Beg. Stocks 1,731 1,737 2,293 2,140 1,835 Imports 67 57 36 40 Total Supply 15,401 16,942 16,939 16,600 16,765 Feed & Residual 5,120 5,470 5,304 5,375 5,500 Ethanol 5,224 5,432 5,605 5,550 5,575 Food, Seed, & Other 1,422 1,453 1,451 1,465 Exports 1,898 2,294 2,438 2,375 2,475 Total Use 13,664 14,649 14,799 14,765 15,015 Ending Stocks 1,750 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.61 3.36 3.55 3.65 Source: USDA-WAOB, adjustments for March report 15 15

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Area Planted (mil. acres) 82.7 83.4 90.2 89.2 85.0 Yield (bu./acre) 48.0 52.0 49.3 51.6 49.5 Production (mil. bu.) 3,926 4,296 4,412 4,544 4,175 Beg. Stocks 191 197 302 438 900 Imports 24 22 20 Total Supply 4,140 4,515 4,735 5,002 5,095 Crush 1,886 1,901 2,055 2,100 2,105 Seed & Residual 122 146 113 127 130 Exports 1,936 2,166 2,129 1,875 2,025 Total Use 3,944 4,214 4,297 4,102 4,260 Ending Stocks 835 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 8.95 9.47 9.33 8.60 8.80 Source: USDA-WAOB, adjustments for March report 16 16

Weather Outlook Source: NOAA-CPC 17 17

Projected Corn Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels per acre Source: USDA-NASS 18 18

Projected Soybean Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels per acre Source: USDA-NASS 19 19

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 20 20

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 21 21

Current Corn Futures 3.93 3.53 Source: CME Group, 3/20/2019

Current Soybean Futures 9.28 8.65 Source: CME Group, 3/20/2019

2018/19 Crop Margins Based on futures prices

2019/20 Crop Margins Based on futures prices

Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs Based on USDA prices and ISU costs

Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs Based on USDA prices and ISU costs

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Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/