Long-term sustainability of public finances in Slovakia Ľudovít Ódor

Main lessons Move beyond ageing – complex fiscal risk assessment Move beyond simple indicators - look at public sector balance sheets Discuss policy implications

Extending our understanding of long-term sustainability

Four dimensions of sustainability Solvency Growth Sustainability Stability Fairness 2005, Schick A.

Public sector balance sheet (intertemporal net worth)

Fiscal space review

Current focus of the CBR

Population ageing Population in year 2017 Population in year 2067

Transition to a totally different country

Sustainability „GAP“ indicator (vintages 2011 to 2016)

Net worth of the public sector

Feedback effects on economic growth

Generational accounts (age profiles)

Other issues Public-private partnerships (PPPs) Costs of nuclear decommissioning Costs of delay Scenario and sensitivity analysis Definition of NPC scenarios

Policy implications

Major challenges Immigration policy Structural reforms (labour and product markets, pensions, healthcare) Measurement and management of fiscal risks More focus on distributional consequences and growth implications Link between deficits and changes in net worth New topics: monetary-fiscal interactions, natural resources, global warming, cyber-security etc.

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