The Bull Romps Again! Can the Good Times Last?

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Presentation transcript:

The Bull Romps Again! Can the Good Times Last?

What’s Behind the Rebound Avoided: “Black hole for black gold” Dramatic revival for junk bonds Dollar off about 3% YTD Green shoots for U.S. economy (PMIs) But Europe, Japan, China still weak

Potential Upside SPX 2017 operating earnings estimate of $135.51 (FactSet) Year-end 2016 forward P/E unchanged at 16.3X Result: S&P 500 trades at 2209

Bullish Indicators Chartist 90% rule CBOE equity put-call ratio Fund managers’ cash

Breadth Stampede

Options Traders Gloomy

Fund Managers Scared

Stock Picker’s Advantages Market indexes showing their FANG Earnings overreactions (AAPL!) Sector anomalies (Big Pharma)

Take Your Meds AbbVie (NYSE: ABBV) Roche Holding (OTC: RHHBY) Sanofi (NYSE: SNY) Teva Pharmaceutical (NYSE: TEVA)

“Old” Tech on the Rebound Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT)

Bond Investor’s Dilemma Interest rates rise: downward pressure on prices for Treasuries, munis Interest rates fall: defaults on lower-grade paper multiply Conclusion: If you can accept the risks, go with stocks that pay growing dividends

Gold: Insiders Dumping

Oil: The Same Story (Almost)

Your Turn to Ask