PRB Workshop, Ghent, 4-5 October 2004 PRB Workshop, Ghent, 4-5 October 2004 Harmonised Techniques and Representative River Basin Data for Assessment and Use of Uncertainty Information in Integrated Water Management (HarmoniRiB) Jens Christian Refsgaard Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) The problem why do we need uncertainty assessments ? different needs at different steps in the modelling process (links to HarmoniQuA) Uncertainty assessment methodologies - HarmoniRiB Links to WFD implementation Example of elements in PRB case study PRB Workshop, Ghent, 4-5 October 2004

PRB Workshop, Ghent, 4-5 October 2004 Problem statement #1 Uncertainty should affect the selection of appropriate modelling tool “We do not need complex hydrological models which we do not understand and where the output is known to be uncertain” “Instead we want simple models that are reliable” Statement from water manager responsible for implementation of Water Framework Directive (Harmoni-CA conference, Brussels February 2004)  Uncertainty assessments of model predictions both for simple and complex models essential for bridging the perception gap between scientists and practitioners PRB Workshop, Ghent, 4-5 October 2004

Consultant # 1 Consultant # 2 Problem statement #2 Uncertainty should affect water management decisions Copenhagen County project on identification of suitable methods for assessing groundwater vulnerability (2000) Assessments from five consultants on areas vulnerable to nitrate pollution from diffuse sources Consultant # 3 Consultant # 4 Different concpts of dominant processes that governed whether an area was vulnerable or not some based on DRASTIC some focussed on comprehensive flow and transport modelling others focussed a lot on geochemicl processes in order to evaluate the nitrate reduction potential in the catchment Consultant # 5 Vulnerable areas Very vulnerable Vulnerable Less vulnerable Well protected

State of knowledge about ‘reality’ (uncertainty concepts) Ignorance: unaware of imperfect knowledge State of knowledge about ‘reality’ (uncertainty concepts) Certainty (outcome known) ‘Bounded uncertainty’ (all possible outcomes known) ‘Unbounded uncertainty’ (not all outcomes known) No outcomes, “Do not know” Some outcomes and probabilities Some outcomes, No probabilities Ignorance No outcomes do not know = recognised ignorance All probabilities known Some probabilities known (rare) No probabilities known Quantitative Qualitative Scenarios Cannot formalise

Where and how does uncertainty come into the modelling process Harmonising Quality Assurance in model based catchment and river basin management (HarmoniQuA) HarmoniQuA - another CATCHMOD project dealing with quality assurance in the modelling process Modelling protocol with five main steps Uncertainty is handled differently at different steps in the modelling process

Problem framing, identification of uncertainty sources, water manager and stakeholder perceptions and priorities Dialogue between modeller and water manager/stakeholders Modeller reconsiders accuracy requirements (Comprehensive) uncertainty analyses

PRB Workshop, Ghent, 4-5 October 2004 Project objectives To establish a practical methodology and a set of tools for assessing and describing uncertainty originating from data and models To provide a conceptual model for data management and data base software that can handle uncertain data To establish well documented datasets (including uncertainty estimates) for eight river basins and make these data available for future research projects (’virtual laboratory’) To test the developed methodologies through a number of case studies focusing on integration of uncertainty and socio-economic aspects To disseminate the results among researchers and end users across Europe PRB Workshop, Ghent, 4-5 October 2004

HarmoniRiB - River basin network PRB Workshop, Ghent, 4-5 October 2004

Data being collected from river basins All data necessary to conduct research projects of relevance for implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive Time series meteorological data rivers (quantity, quality and ecology) lakes (quantity, quality and ecology) groundwater (quantity, quality and ecology) transitional and coastal waters (quantity, quality and ecology) Spatial data (GIS themes) land use pressures socio-economic data (water users) system characteristics PRB Workshop, Ghent, 4-5 October 2004

PRB Workshop, Ghent, 4-5 October 2004 Data uncertainty Time x y Temporal data Spatial data “Guidelines for assessing data uncertainty” First draft version, September 2004 Final version, available on www.harmonirib.com, February 2005 PRB Workshop, Ghent, 4-5 October 2004

PRB Workshop, Ghent, 4-5 October 2004 Uncertainty tools Data uncertainty Uncertainty propagation through models PRB Workshop, Ghent, 4-5 October 2004

Links to WFD implementation Mainly contribution to “Programme of measures” Database software for handling WFD type data, including information on data uncertainty Datasets from eight river basins - for use in future research projects on WFD related issues Methodologies and tools on uncertainty assessments tested on case studies example from Odense PRB PRB Workshop, Ghent, 4-5 October 2004

Fyns Amt Measure “WFD-scenario” Scenario on agricultural measures in 2000 Odense Fjord loading today (flow normalized): 63.000 59 Dkr/kgN 1060 1600 Total reduction and total costs Cost efficiency – average 19 38 3200 (4,6%) Catch-crops: Optimised use of existing catch-crops 7.175 287 25 50 2500 (3,6%) Organic farming - increased area - 29 57 1470 (2%) Reduction in cultivated area (urbanisation) 16.200 300 54 108 17% reduced livestock production (10000 LU pigs) 2.960 40 74 148 10% higher utilisation of N in all manure 1.302 14 93 185 5000 (7,1%) Catch-crops: Increased use on areas with manure 14.000 125 112 214 New forests on cultivated areas 11.600 400 4000 (5,7%) Wetlands in River-valleys 10.160 254 508 20% reduction on national N-fertilizer quota Cost + Cost eff. 1000 Dkr Dkr./kg N removed Reduced loading Odense Fjord Tonnes N Reduced Leaching Tonnes Nitrogen Area - ha (percent of agricultural area) Measure Fyns Amt “WFD-scenario” Scenario on agricultural measures in the catchment of Odense Fjord to meet environmental objectives Source: Danish Ministry for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries and Danish Forest and Nature Agency December 2003

Uncertanties on effects and uncertainties of costs PoM 1 Uncertain data Effects of… + = models effects 2 3 Difficult decision: 2 or 3? + = Costs of alternative programmes of measures Uncertain data models costs PRB Workshop, Ghent, 4-5 October 2004

PRB Workshop, Ghent, 4-5 October 2004 More information www.HarmoniRiB.com www.HarmoniQuA.org JCR@GEUS.DK PRB Workshop, Ghent, 4-5 October 2004