Ongoing and Planned Activities in Sub-seasonal Forecasting at the NCEP

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Presentation transcript:

Ongoing and Planned Activities in Sub-seasonal Forecasting at the NCEP Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 02 December 2011

Real-time Forecast Configuration Coupled model T126/L64 MOM4 16 runs/day; 45 day forecast Initial conditions for the ocean, atmosphere, land are from the CFSR Coupled analysis T574 Real-time forecast products are calibrated based on the hindcasts climatology Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 02 December 2011

Hindcasts Period : 1999- 2010 4 runs/day; 45 day Hindcasts are used for Developing calibration climatologies (mean; standard deviation) Skill assessments and skill masks Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 02 December 2011

Some Products Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 02 December 2011

MJO Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 02 December 2011

Global Tropical Hazard (GTH) Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 02 December 2011

Monthly Forecasts Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 02 December 2011

Monthly Forecasts Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 02 December 2011

Weekly Forecasts Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 02 December 2011

Weekly Forecasts Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 02 December 2011

Applications of Interest MJO and Global Hazards Prediction of consecutive days of extreme temperature and precipitation Prediction of blocking and various circulation indices Prediction of tropical storms (with specific interest in Atlantic Hurricanes) Prediction of onset date, and active and break phases of various monsoons Prediction of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 02 December 2011