A Waning Warming: Whats Up With That? Alan Journet / Co-Facilitator For ppt: Projects Presentation Project Scroll down to SOCAN Presentations Deliveredhttp://socan.info

ii) The Rest of the Story i) What is happening to atmospheric temperature? Two Parts:

Global Temperatures 1880 – 2012 cf Since 1970s F Since 1880s - app. 2.0 F Since 1750s - >2.0F F 2013 so far 7 th hottest on record – WMU

State of the Climate 2009 Highlights (NOAA 2010)

NASA GISS Data Is it legitimate, when we have a large date set, to trawl in sub-sets of those data for patterns we want to see?

A Little Statistics: REGRESSION ANALYSIS Y X Is Temperature [Y] a function of time [X] (i.e. increasing with)? * * * * * Temperature Probably Agree – Looks Positive As X increases, Y increases

But Suppose….. Y X * * * * * Temperature Might Agree – As X increases, Y increases But less Convinced Is Temperature [Y] a function of time [X] (i.e. increasing with)?

And Suppose Again ….. Y X * * * * * Temperature Probably Disagree – Slope is 0; As X increases, Y stays same Is Temperature [Y] a function of time [X] (i.e. increasing with)?

In Regression…the Key Questions How close are the data to the line? If data are close to line we are confident that the line represents the data accurately, and and Is the slope of the line (significantly) different from 0 - meaning a slope (relationship) exists? Only if the slope is significantly different from 0 (at least 95% certainty), in science, can we conclude there is a pattern.

Regression Analysis Reveals Trend NASA GISS Global Temperature Data Meteorological Stations

97% of practicing climate scientists have independently reviewed data such as these and concluded: -There is a greater than 90% probability that human emissions of greenhouse gases are contributing -That the planet is warming is unequivocal If a coin toss comes up heads 500/1000 wed be happy, but 999 times out of 1000 wed be suspicious

Phil Brennan, Sept 2009, Newsmax The planet has been cooling since around 1998 or since around the year Stephen (Lord) Monckton of Benchley American Physical Society: Forum on Physics and Society; July 2008 Showed following cooling pattern from 2002 – 2008: EXAMPLES

The 1998 – 2012 Analysis NASA GISS Global Temperature Data Meteorological Stations

1 – Still positive though lower slope and probability 2 – Based on cherry-picked data starting 1998 With a 70% chance of rain, would you take an umbrella? The 1998 – 2012 Analysis NASA GISS Global Temperature Data Meteorological Stations

The 1998 – 2012 Analysis NASA GISS Temperature Data Meteorological Stations 1998 adjusted adjusted to mean of two previous and 2 succeeding years No more legitimate than cherry-picking data-

Now slope is back, and P > 90% Indicates the impact of outliers on data analysis and conclusions. The 1998 – 2012 Analysis NASA GISS Temperature Data Meteorological Stations 1998 adjusted With a 90% chance of rain, would you take an umbrella?

Pattern Adjusted for Natural Factors: ENSO, Solar Cycles, Volcanoes Absent Cooling Factors Would Have Been A Consistent Rise Next-3-Decades G. Foster, and S. Rahmsdorf, "Global temperature evolution 1979–2010", Environmental Research Letters, vol. 6, However….recently

Cowtan and Way Accepted November 2013 Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society IPCC 2013: …the rate of warming over the past 15 years (1998–2012) was 0.05 [–0.05 to +0.15] °C per decade, which begins with a strong El Niño, However, the rate 1951 – 2012 was 0.12 [0.08 to 0.14] °C per decade. Adjustment Allowing for Incomplete coverage by weather stations especially lacking in Arctic where greatest recent warming has occurred Appeared too late for inclusion in IPCC review Corrected value Increases 1998 – 2012 back to 012°C – same as 1951 – 2012 Combine this with the previous study and maybe atmospheric influences have actually increased

Atmospheric Temperature Conclusion Still warming – But now – The Rest of the Story…. questionable that its a slower rise

Temperature is only one manifestation of our use of the atmosphere as a carbon waste dump Eleven Indicators of a Carbon Polluted Planet Modified From Ocean Acidification

Heat vs Temperature Heat is the amount of energy in a system. The SI units for heat are Joules. Temperature measures AVERAGE molecular motion in a system and is measured in degrees (F, C, or K).

Incoming Visible light Transformed to Infra-red = heat. Then what? Some infra-red is absorbed by atmospheric gases Remainder escapes into space The Atmospheric Greenhouse Effect" WARNING: Not drawn to scale some re-radiated out

If atmospheric gas density increases, more heat is retained by this thermal blanket Surface - Lower Atmosphere Warming Less escapes into space What proportion of this trapped heat energy is absorbed by the atmosphere and causes atmospheric warming?

Components of a Heating Planet

Cunning Properties of Water High Specific Heat Water molecules take relatively large amounts of heat to warm. Imagine saucepan of air vs saucepan of water: apply heat which warms fastest? High Latent Heat When water changes state (ice water vapor); Heat is consumed without a temperature change Result is water consumes heat energy without warming very much Maximum Density

Land and Sea Surface Temperature Oceans follow but lag Warming faster in the last 60 years than in 10,000

Oceans as heat sinks Change not in global warming but in transfer of heat from upper to deep abyssal zones.

The Rest of the Story Regardless of the atmospheric temperature trend….. The planet continues to absorb heat from incoming trapped radiation Its GLOBAL Warming – not Atmospheric Warming!

Finally – Definitive, Irrefutable, Confirmation of Global Warming…

$271 b in US 97% OR

NY Times