The Great Drought of the 16th Century,

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Presentation transcript:

The Great Drought of the 16th Century, compared to the 1950s 1950s “megadrought” Gutzler (2011) data from treeflow.org

The Great Drought of the 20th Century, compared to today Annual Water Year Precipitation, 1940-2011 ? Rio Grande Headwaters Consecutive Years < 16” 1953-1956 (4 yr) 2010-2011 (2 yr) Upper Rio Grande basin Consecutive Years < 14” 1951-1956 (6 yr) 2011 (1 yr) 1950 2000 data from WestMap http://www.cefa.dri.edu/Westmap/

Projected Change NM2 Temperature 28 Projected Change NM2 Temperature 2 (°C) 24 20 4 model output (18-model avg) A1B-forced, 18-model average -4 1900 2000 2100 A data/model hybrid scenario: a) 1901-2007: monthly data b) 2008-2100: sum of 3 terms: i) 1971-2007 climatology ii) model-average linear trend iii) interannual anomaly from data exactly 100 years earlier 28 model trend + historical vblty 24 data 1901-2007 20 4 -4 1900 2000 2100 Gutzler & Robbins (2011) 3

Present and Projected Rio Grande Streamflow 3 different model projections (A1B-forced) Snowpack currently feeds late spring flood pulses on the Rio Grande and its tributaries In a warmer climate: Earlier snow-fed flood pulse Reduced total streamflow volume, especially in late spring/early summer 2030: 4 - 14% reduction 2080: 8 - 29% reduction Hurd and Coonrod (2008) 4

Lessons from history and climate modeling Big droughts happen here … worse than the 1950s Current drought can’t yet compete with the 1950s (in terms of consecutive years of dryness) But warming trends amplify the hydrologic impact of long-term precipitation deficits … “drought” becomes the new normal Happy New Year!