The IPCC future: Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP)

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Presentation transcript:

The IPCC future: Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP) CICERO lunch seminar The IPCC future: Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP) Asbjørn Aaheim November 30th, 2011

Exploring the role of adaptation Why new scenarios? More detailed information needed to run the current generation of climate models Enable an explicit exploration of the impact of different climate policies, and comparisons with non- climate-policy scenarios Exploring the role of adaptation Take full advantage of recent developments of integrated models Scenarios ought to better reflect policy alternatives: Max and min emission paths, paths in between that distinguish policy alternatives, stabilization of concentrations, declining concentrations, extended horizon Extended applicability of scenarios

Main characteristics of RCPs Four marker scenarios named after radiative forcing at stabilization (with exceptions) Detailed scenarios, including land use, to 2100 – general paths to 2300 Each marker RCP produced by separate models RCP3: IMAGE RCP4.5: GCAM RCP6: AIM RCP8.5: MESSAGE Unit 2000 2100 RCP3 RCP4.5 RCP6 RCP8.5 Population bill 6.0 9.0 8.5 9.8 12.6 World GDP 1012 US$ 30 363 365 218 191 Primary energy EJ 475 855 1150 830 1750 Population, rather than economic development, drives energy use

Global emissions of carbon by RCP

Nitrous oxide Methane

Quotas of constant annual, allowable CO2 emissions until 2100 in RCP 4 Quotas of constant annual, allowable CO2 emissions until 2100 in RCP 4.5 (approx 2.5 °C) with same total emissions (orange) and same contribution to forcing in 2100 (yellow) by region. Percent of present emissions Kilde: RCP4.5

Preliminary climate scenarios: CMIP5 – a ”small” climate model (Meinshausen 2010) Year RCP8.5 RCP 4.5 Low Most likely High 2050 1.8 2.1 3.0 1.6 2.5 2100 3.6 4.7 6.5 1.9 2.4 3.5 2150 4.8 8.6 2.0 3.7 Stabilized 5.8 8.0 >10 2.6 4.1 Change in precipitation not available

Global mean temperature in RCP4.5 – Max Planck Institute IMPLICC dT (2006 – 2100): + 1.51; dT +2.41

A climate policy analysis: Costs and benefits

Representation of impacts in GRACE Adjust energy use for heating and cooling Tourism Vector-born diseases Damage from natural hazards Soil productivity Runoff

BNP etter region ved RCP8.5 RCP4.5

The storylines: Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) Rich, equal and resource demanding Continuation of current dynamics SSP5 SSP3 SSP2 Challenges to mitigation SSP1 SSP4 The world of the few, cynical rich Cooperation, equity and development Challenges to adaptation

Read more: Climatic Change special issue – online August 2011 van Vuuren, D.P. et al. (2011): «A proposal for a new scenario framwork to support research and assessment in different climate research communities», Global Environmental Change – online RCPs are found on http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/tnt/RcpDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=about