Use of JDemetra+ at the Deutsche Bundesbank SAEG Meeting, Brussels, 11 March 2019 Andreas Lorenz, DG Statistics

Adoption of JDemetra+ in the Bundesbank Communication Outline Adoption of JDemetra+ in the Bundesbank Communication Training activities Andreas Lorenz, SAEG Meeting, Brussels 11 March 2019

1 Adoption of JDemetra+ in the Bundesbank Timeline for selected indicators Date Indicator In cooperation with… 02/2018 Stock of orders Destatis 03/2018 Orders received 05/2018 Industrial production 06/2018 Turnover in industry 10/2018 Labour market statistics Federal Employment Agency 12/2018 Revenues and operating income of listed non-financial groups 09/2019 National accounts Labour cost index Andreas Lorenz, SAEG Meeting, Brussels 11 March 2019

1 Adoption of JDemetra+ in the Bundesbank Selected aspects (1/2) The JDemetra+ 2.2.1 GUI is used for both analysis and production of seasonally adjusted time series. Cooperation partners also rely heavily on the GUI. Migration of existing spec files from Census X-12-ARIMA to JDemetra+ with the SpecParser (see SpecParser plug-in via GitHub and presentation at SAEG 12/15). ConCur plug-in for performing seasonal adjustment with the controlled current adjustment approach (see presentation at SAEG 6/16). The Concur plug-in can be combined with ExcelAdapter plug-in for saving calendar and seasonal factors in Excel (see presentation at SAEG 3/18). Other plug-ins used in daily production are: TransReg for transformation of calendar regressors (see TransReg plug-in via GitHub and presentation at SAEG 3/17) and KIX for aggregating chain indices (see KIX plug-in via GitHub and presentation at SAEG 3/15) Andreas Lorenz, SAEG Meeting, Brussels 11 March 2019

1 Adoption of JDemetra+ in the Bundesbank Selected aspects (2/2) Further quality control tools are in use (e.g. tables for zero-checks, consistency checks for direct seasonal adjustment, checks for residual seasonality in case of indirect seasonal adjustment, checks for residual calendar effects). For the adjustment data with half-yearly frequency (e.g. revenues and operating income of listed non-financial groups), JDemetra+ 2.2.2 is used. When seasonal adjustment is done in cooperation with other institutions and both institutions agree on changing specifications, only the spec files are exchanged (no need for transmission of entire workspaces). Andreas Lorenz, SAEG Meeting, Brussels 11 March 2019

Information on the Bundesbank website regarding changeover: 2 Communication Information on the Bundesbank website regarding changeover: https://www.bundesbank.de/Redaktion/EN/Standardartikel/Statistics/jdemetra.html Information in the Bundesbank Monthly Report May 2018, p. 50 (dedicated box): https://www.bundesbank.de/resource/blob/744242/7da0a4450048229bfdb9b577f89 42fa5/mL/2018-05-konjunktur-in-deutschland-data.pdf Joint announcement with Destatis in flash news on CrosPortal on 30 May 2018: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cros/content/flash-news_en Dedicated section for JDemetra+ on the Bundesbank website: https://www.bundesbank.de/en/statistics/statistics/jdemetra--729580 Seasonal adjustment software and method are also referred in the publication tables and in explanatory notes for each statistical domain. Andreas Lorenz, SAEG Meeting, Brussels 11 March 2019

3 Training activities ESTP course: “Advanced JDEMETRA+ with R”, 9/18, 3 days, Luxemburg, Jean Palate, Nina Gonschorreck and Thomas Witthohn CIC course: “Seasonal adjustment of economic data”, 10/18, 5 days, Frankfurt am Main, Karsten Webel and Christiane Hofer ESTP course “Introduction to seasonal adjustment and JDemetra+”,1/19, 3 days, Andreas Dietrich, Veronique Elter (STATEC) ECB course: “Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series with JDemetra+”, 5/18, 3 days, Frankfurt am Main. CIC course: “Seasonal adjustment of economic data”, 10/19, 5 days, Frankfurt am Main, Karsten Webel and Christiane Hofer. CIC course: “Advanced topics in seasonal adjustment”, 12/19, 5 days, Frankfurt. * CIC = Centre for International Central Bank Dialogue Andreas Lorenz, SAEG Meeting, Brussels 11 March 2019

Thank you for your attention! Any questions, remarks or suggestions? Andreas Lorenz, SAEG Meeting, Brussels 11 March 2019