U.S. Yukon River Fall Chum and Coho Salmon Preseason Management Strategies YRDFA Preseason Planning Meeting May 2, 2018 Anchorage Presentation By: Jeff Estensen Photo by Jeff Estensen

2017 Season Summary Management Preseason projection = greater than 1 Millon fish based on summer/fall chum relationship All districts and subdistricts went to full regulatory subsistence fishing schedule upon transitioning to fall season subsequent 7 days per week/24 hours per day Commercial fishing in lower river, Subdistricts 4A, 5B and 5C, and District 6

2017 Season Summary Management Subsistence salmon fishing in the U.S. mainstem Porcupine River was placed on reduced schedule on September 4 Liberalized to 24 hours per day, 7 days per week on September 22 based on the projected achievement of the Fishing Branch IMEG Preliminary Fishing Branch River weir fall chum escapement = 48,524 fish IMEG (22,000 – 49,000) Summary of 2017 Management Subsistence salmon fishing in the U.S. mainstem Porcupine River was placed on reduced schedule on September 4 Liberalized to 24 hours per day, 7 days per week on September 22 based on the projected achievement of the Fishing Branch IMEG Preliminary Fishing Branch River weir fall chum escapement = 48,524 fish IMEG (22,000 – 49,000)

2017 Season Summary Run Assessment Fall chum run size = 2.3 Million fish coho = 315,000 fish Drainagewide fall chum escapement = 1.7 Million fish coho = 167,000 fish All escapement goal and treaty objectives were achieved or exceeded (including Fishing Branch River)

2017 Season Summary Harvests Preliminary subsistence harvests: fall chum  85,700 coho  7,500 Commercial fall chum and coho harvests were at record or near record levels Photo by ADF&G Staff

Fall Chum Salmon Run Sizes

What to Expect in 2018 Photo by Jeff Estensen

Drainagewide Fall Chum Salmon Forecast Forecasted run = 1.7 Million Range (80% CI) = 1.6 Million – 1.8 Million Average run size for an even year = 800,000 So that brings us to this year’s fall chum forecast: 1.7 M fish, range of 1.6 to 1.8 M Well above average for an even year run = 800,000 fish Photo by ADF&G Staff

2018 Fall Chum Salmon Run Expectations Evaluate age class returns inseason 5 year olds ~ 25% of run on average expect an above average return of 5 year olds based on 2017 4-year old return 4 year olds dominate the run (~ 68% on average) parent year (2014) escapement was 725,000 fish return typically uncertain prior to the season 3 and 6 year old fish make up a small percentage of run Run Expectations for 2018 5 -year olds return ~ 25% of the annual run Above average return based on well above average 2017 4-year old return 4 year old return ~ 68 % of the annual run Parent year (2014) escapement was 725,000 fish Return typically uncertain entering the season 3 and 6 year old fish returns make up a small percentage of return  

Photo by Christy Gleason 2018 Management Photo by Jeff Estensen Photo by Christy Gleason

Fall Season Management Early season management based on preseason projection Based on summer chum salmon run Switch to inseason assessment ~ late July/early August Passage at mainstem sonar near Pilot Station Lower Yukon Test Fishery Genetics Subsistence and commercial harvest information Adjust management inseason based on assessment Early season management based on the preseason projection Switch to inseason management around late July/early August as inseason projection becomes less volatile. Passage at mainstem sonar near Pilot Lower Test Fish numbers Genetics Subsistence and commercial harvest information Adjust management with assessment Photo by: ADF&G Staff

Management Strategy Subsistence Fisheries Full regulatory schedules anticipated with 7.5” mesh Switch to fall management commensurate with fall chum salmon migration Potential for 7 days per week later in season Photo by Jeff Estensen Photo by Jeff Estensen

U.S. Porcupine Fall Chum Salmon Management Management will be based on inseason run assessment: full regulatory schedule reduced fishing schedule full closure Flexibility to adjust management as inseason information becomes available: lower river assessment Porcupine River sonar Fishing Branch River weir Photo by Jeff Estensen With that in mind and expecting a run greater than 1M fish Likely begin fall season in the US portion of the Porcupine River on full regulatory schedule and no anticipated subsistence salmon fishing restrictions for the season Possibility of reduced schedule or closure if the fall chum salmon run is coming in below 1 M fish Flexibility to adjust management inseason as information from: Lower river assessment (sonar) Porcupine River sonar Fishing Branch weir Photo by Jeff Estensen

Management Strategies Commercial Fisheries Commercial surplus of 1.2 million fish available Openings at transition in Lower River Commercial openings in District 6 and Subdisticts 5B-C Adjust fishing time as run strength warrants Photo by Jeff Estensen Photo by Christy Gleason

Coho Salmon Management Average run  240,000 fish. Incidentally harvested in fall chum salmon directed commercial fishery. Under coho salmon management plan the department has an option for a directed commercial fishery in early September. Photo by Bonnie Borba What to expect for coho management Incidentally caught in the fall chum directed As I mentioned the large harvests coincide with large runs Possible to have coho directed fishing in September Run strength assessment Amount of harvest taken in fall chum fishery

Board Of Fisheries Actions Fall Season Commercial Fishery: After July 15, set net only area expanded offshore up to 3 miles Summer and Fall Seasons: District 1 boundary is now identical for subsistence and commercial: Black River to Point Romanof, offshore up to 3 miles Finally 2 BOF actions that will have a direct affect on the fall season commercial fisheries After July 15, set net only area expanded offshore up to 3 miles   Summer and Fall Season: District 1 boundary is now identical for subsistence and commercial: Black River to Point Romanof, offshore up to 3 miles

Board Of Fisheries Actions District 6 Tanana River: Commercial season ends by date established by Emergency order instead of October 1. District 6 Tanana River:   Commercial season ends by date established by Emergency order instead of October 1.

ADF&G Fall Season Team Contacts Questions? Photo by Christy Gleason Photo by Christy Gleason ADF&G Fall Season Team Contacts jeff.estensen@alaska.gov Area Manager christine.gleason@alaska.gov Assistant Manager bonnie.borba@alaska.gov Research Biologist 907-459-7274 Photo submitted by fisherman