Visualization of first (Model - to – Observations/Emissions) TFMM-Trends, Kraków, 5-8 May 2015 Visualization of first Modelled Trends (1990-2000-2010) Model - to - Model (Model - to – Observations/Emissions) - C. Cuvelier, ex European Commission JRC - EuroDelta Trend Modelling Teams Based on contributions from EMEP, CHIM, MINNI, POLR Support from Concawe
Tool for Trend Analysis Objectives The Tool Tool for Trend Analysis Multi – Model (model intercomparison) Multi - Pollutant Gases, PM, Depositions Multi – Geo (zooming) Europe (Land, Sea), Countries (39), Regions (428), Cities (477), Stations Detailed Shape files (polygons of lon-lat) Add Observational and Emission trends
EuroDelta3 Trend Analysis TOOL Read-only Database Model All pollutants Zoom: Country, region, City, Station Indicators (e.g. O3excD, O3somo35, PM10excD, NO2excD, … etc) Regression: Linear, Exp, Sen, … etc Add Observational data Add Emission data Model Model results: Example ED_MODEL#MxxByyEzz_EDT_O3_DL.nc (nx,ny,ntime) Meteo: KZ, PBL, RAIN, T2M, U10, USTAR (H D) Gas: APINEN, H2O2, HCHO, HNO3, ISOP, NH3, NO, NO2, O3, PAN, SO2, VOC (H,D) PM: PM25, [ASOA, BSOA, DUST, EC, NA, NH4, NO3, OPOM, OPPM, POMS2, SO4, TPOM]-25 (D) PM10, [ASOA, BSOA, DUST, EC, NA, NH4, NO3, OPOM, OPPM, POMS2, SO4, TPOM]-10 (D) Dep: DNHx, DNOx, DSOx, WNHx, WNOx, WSOx (M) Read-only Database
Deliverables EMEP: Y90, Y00, Y10, Y10f, Y10fe, M10B10E00, M10B10E90 CHIM: Y90, Y00, Y10, Y10e, M10B10E00, M10B10E90 MINNI: Y90, Y00, Y10, Y10e POLR: Y10e f = ‘f’orest Fires e = ‘e’MEP emission inventory, otherwise GAINS Total = 64 Gb 20 years, 5 models => 350 Gb
Models intercomparison Y90 => EMEP, CHIM, MINNI Y00 => … Y10 => … Y10e => CHIM, MINNI, POLR Y10-Y90 => EMEP, CHIM, MINNI Y10-Y00 => … Y10 – Y10e => CHIM, MINNI M10B10E10 – M10B10E00 => EMEP, CHIM M10B10E10 – M10B10E90 => … O3, NO2, PM10 O3hr8max, O3hr8Exc60 Trends
O3 Y10
O3 Y10 – Y90
NO2 Y10
NO2 Y10-Y90
PM10 Y10
PM10 Y10-Y90 PM10 Y10-Y00
O3hr8max Y10 – Y90
O3hr8Exc60 Y10 – Y90
Multi-Geo
Year Selection, Multi-Species EU Year Selection, Multi-Species
First Results Trend Calculations
EU Trend Europe (Land), O3
EU Trend FRA, O3
Trend O3 [ug/m3/year] EU EMEP CHIM MINNI EMEP#Y90 ug/m3 EU-Land -0.151 -0.014 -0.122 60 IT -0.282 -0.082 -0.234 70 ES -0.243 -0.055 -0.222 75 DE -0.159 +0.132 -0.045 55 FR -0.390 -0.173 -0.334 UK -0.075 +0.068 -0.053 40 PL -0.154 -0.012 -0.096
Trend O3hr8max [ug/m3/year] EU Trend O3hr8max [ug/m3/year] EMEP CHIM MINNI EMEP#Y90 ug/m3 EU-Land -0.272 -0.106 -0.211 70 IT -0.529 -0.350 -0.446 90 ES -0.351 -0.148 -0.320 85 DE -0.414 -0.085 -0.323 FR -0.575 -0.348 -0.477 UK -0.162 -0.013 -0.125 45 PL -0.310 -0.097 -0.181
Trend O3hr8Exc60 [days/year] EU Trend O3hr8Exc60 [days/year] EMEP CHIM MINNI EMEP#Y90 days EU-Land -1.55 -0.445 -0.867 34 IT -3.960 -1.970 -2.80 90 ES -1.37 -0.542 -1.288 32 DE -2.567 -0.731 -1.453 55 FR -3.270 -1.176 -1.909 70 UK -0.861 -0.210 -0.348 18 PL -1.804 -0.249 -0.704 39
Trend NO2 [ug/m3/year] EU EMEP CHIM MINNI EMEP#Y90 ug/m3 EU-Land -0.077 -0.105 -0.086 5.0 IT -0.168 -0.287 -0.190 8.2 ES -0.037 -0.079 -0.053 4.1 DE -0.302 -0.423 -0.319 14.2 FR -0.084 -0.158 -0.103 7.2 UK -0.143 -0.216 -0.153 6.5 PL -0.060 -0.101 7.1
Trend PM10 [ug/m3/year] EU EMEP CHIM MINNI EMEP#Y90 ug/m3 EU-Land -0.326 -0.312 -0.316 14.7 IT -0.435 -0.397 -0.406 20.4 ES -0.342 -0.285 -0.307 17.5 DE -0.648 -0.649 -0.681 25.1 FR -0.462 -0.375 -0.394 20.7 UK -0.214 -0.164 -0.176 10.4 PL -0.498 -0.451 -0.561 22.2
Trend SO2 [ug/m3/year] EU EMEP CHIM MINNI EMEP#Y90 ug/m3 EU-Land -0.202 -0.178 -0.206 4.6 IT -0.212 -0.211 -0.257 4.7 ES -0.106 -0.104 -0.126 3.2 DE -0.496 -0.452 -0.488 10.0 FR -0.174 -0.213 UK -0.184 -0.182 -0.164 4.0 PL -0.545 -0.412 -0.466 12.6
2d map Trend O3 [ug/m3/year] EU 2d map Trend O3 [ug/m3/year]
2d map Trend O3 [ug/m3/year] EU 2d map Trend O3 [ug/m3/year]
2d map Trend NO2 [ug/m3/year] EU 2d map Trend NO2 [ug/m3/year]
2d map Trend NO2 [ug/m3/year] EU 2d map Trend NO2 [ug/m3/year]
2d map Trend PM10 [ug/m3/year] EU 2d map Trend PM10 [ug/m3/year]
2d map Trend PM10 [ug/m3/year] EU 2d map Trend PM10 [ug/m3/year]
2d map Trend SO2 [ug/m3/year] EU 2d map Trend SO2 [ug/m3/year]
2d map Trend SO2 [ug/m3/year] EU 2d map Trend SO2 [ug/m3/year]
2d map Trend O3hr8Exc60 [days/year] EU 2d map Trend O3hr8Exc60 [days/year]
2d map Trend O3hr8Exc60 [days/year] EU 2d map Trend O3hr8Exc60 [days/year]
1 preliminary conclusion To complete Final Remarks 1 preliminary conclusion 3 Models seem to agree on trends To complete 1990/2000/2010 => intermediate years Add Observational trends (validation) Add Emission trends Visualization/Analysis Tool Easy to install; Easy to use Acting directly on Model output (MBE folder) Fast – handle large amounts of data PC and Linux
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