Synthesis of Asymmetry Studies Workshop on IMTS Synthesis of Asymmetry Studies Budapest, 29-30/05/2013 Author: Nicola Veronese Position: Short-term expert NOM Prénom Fonction

TABLE OF CONTENT Chapter I: Introduction, Chapter II: Trade and asymmetries during MEDSTAT programmes Chapter III: Evaluation according to criteria Chapter IV: Recommendations Annex: Bilateral asymmetries during MEDSTAT III

Chapter I: Introduction In the framework of the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP), the European Commission launched three phases of the Regional Programme of Statistics in the Mediterranean Region (MEDSTAT) MEDSTAT I : 1996-2003 MEDSTAT II : 2006-2009 MEDSTAT III: 2010-2013

Foreign Trade Statistics were included among the priority thematic sectors of MEDSTAT programmes. The importance of disposing of accurate and comparable statistics lead to carry out mirror asymmetry studies in order to : Measure bilateral asymmetries; Identify their causes; Adopt methodological improvements for limiting them in the future

Chapter II: Trade and asymmetries during MEDSTAT Historical importance of trade in the Mediterranean region Growth of international trade thanks to: Transport capacity Telecommunication means Low trade barriers Consumer behaviour

Trade with the EU declared by MPCs, in 2010 (Mio Euro)

MPCs market integration with the EU, in 2010

Evolution of MPCs exports to EU, in 2000-2010 (Part I)

Evolution of MPCs exports to EU, in 2000-2010 (Part II)

Evolution of MPCs imports from EU, in 2000-2010

Value and share of MPCs trade with EU, 2000-2010 (Mio Euro, %)

Value and share of MPCs trade with EU, 2000-2010 (Mio Euro, %)

Main EU imports from MPCs-9, in 2010 EU imports from MPCs = 60 905 million Euro, of which:

Main MPCs partners in EU imports, 2010 HS 27: DZ (68,5%), EG (11,7%) and SY (10,8%) HS 85: TN (47,8%), MA (24,8%) and IL (22,1%) HS 61-62 : TN (47,0%) and MA (42,3%) HS 84: IL (65,0%) and TN ( 17,1%) HS 71 : IL (82,2%), LB (4,5%) and JO (2,7%) HS 30: IL (94,7%), PS (2,1%) HS 07: MA (49,6%), IL (25,5%) and EG (19,9%)

Main EU exports to MPCs-9, in 2010 EU exports to MPCs = 81 493 million Euro, of which:

Main MPCs partners in EU exports, 2010 HS 84: EG (24,8%) and DZ (23,8%) HS 85: TN (23,1%), MA (18,6%) and IL (18,5%) HS 87 : DZ (24,5%) and IL (24,3%) HS 27: MA (21,5%), TN (17,6%) and LB (16,4%) HS 30: DZ (27,3%), IL (20,5%) and EG (16,2%) HS 72: DZ (37,1%), EG (25,8%) HS 39 : IL (21,7%), MA (19,1%), TN (17,3%) and EG (17,0%) HS 71 : IL (81,4%), LB (4,9%) and JO (4,6%)

EU imp/exp from/to MPCs by main HS chapters, 2000-2010 The composition of the EU trade with MPCs remained almost stable during the period 2000-2010, with the exception of the trade in aircraft (HS 88). EU imports from: DZ, SY and EG -----> concentrated on HS 27 IL, LB and JO -----> linked with HS 71 MA, TN -----> mainly based on HS 61-62 and HS 85 PS -----> recently based on HS 30, EU exports to MPCs: Concentrated on HS 84, 85, 87, 27. (See table 19 of the report)

Asymmetries in EU-MPCs trade, 2000-2010 Northbound asymmetries: MEDSTAT I: High in value with DZ and EG High % with JO (82%), EG (69%) and LB (59%) MEDSTAT II: High in value with DZ and EG High % with PS (298%), JO (202%), EG (89%) and LB (59%) MEDSTAT III: High in value with EG High % with PS (367%), JO (45%), and LB (-43%) Main source of asymmetry: Trade in HS 27.

Asymmetries in EU-MPCs trade, 2000-2010 Southbound asymmetries: MEDSTAT I: High in value and in % with EG (-35%) MEDSTAT II: High in value with EG, DZ and SY High % with EG (-59%), SY (-42%) MEDSTAT II: High in value with EG High % with PS (248%) Main source of asymmetry: Increasing role of HS 27 + HS84, 85 and 87.

Asymmetries in EU-MPCs trade, 2000-2010 (Part I)

Asymmetries in EU-MPCs trade, 2000-2010 (Part II)

Trade among EJPAI countries, 2006-2009 Overview: The value of trade among EJPAI countries increased considerably between 2006 and 2009 with the only exception of trade declared by Jordan with Israel and Egyptian imports from Jordan. Market integration: PS imp from IL = 73,6%; PS exp to IL = 87,5% JO imp from EG = 6,1%; PS exp to JO = 5,7%; IL exp to PS = 4,4%; EG exp to JO =3,9%

Asymmetries among EJPAI countries, 2006-2009 Eastbound trade: The asymmetries increased significantly, with the exception of: EG exp to JO and PS exp to JO. Westbound trade: The asymmetries generally reduced, with the exception of IL-PS trade.

Chapter III: Evaluation according to criteria Relevance -------> Why mirror studies ? Effectiveness --------> Results Efficiency -------> Implementation and budget Utility --------> Indirect benefit Sustainability --------> Impact

Effectiveness Spread the importance of data quality; Enhance data exchange among trade partner countries Enhance data exchange among trade partner countries Effectiveness Spread the importance of data quality; Disseminate the methodology for comparing mirror exercises; Verify the level of comparability between EU and MPCs data; Verify the accuracy of the sets of MPCs data available in international databases; Identify the main asymmetries in EU-MPCs data at total and detail level; Obtain information on the methodology adopted by MPCs for the production of external trade data; Provide advices for increasing the harmonization of national methodology towards international concepts; Provide advices to MPCs for changing the system of trade, commodity or partner classifications; Enhance data exchange among trade partner countries Provide feedbacks to EU Member States and MPCs on the causes of permanent asymmetries and on asymmetries generated by particular transactions; Reduce the asymmetries on published data thanks to the correction of data made by the competent administrations Avoid repetition of asymmetries Improve the quality of external trade statistics.

Mirror exercises were useful: Enhance data exchange among trade partner countries Enhance data exchange among trade partner countries Utility Mirror exercises were useful: For improving the comparability and accuracy of EU-MPCs trade data; As basis for developing further presentations on statistical data quality (ex. Seminar or asymmetries in MA-FR twinning); As starting point for further discussions in the framework of other cooperation projects (DZ-FR Customs); Correct errors in international datasets Enhancing national and south-south cooperaton

Mirror exercises produces sustainable results, as they improved: Enhance data exchange among trade partner countries Enhance data exchange among trade partner countries Sustainability Mirror exercises produces sustainable results, as they improved: MPCs human resources skills on mirror exercises methods; The data published, when the correction of identified errors had been done immediately; The post mirror exercise data, when the integration of missing statistical information and the elaboration of changes in statistical methodology realized in the medium-term.

Chapter IV: Recommendations In EU-MPCs trade it might be worth to proceed to an additional round of mirror studies, especially to assess EU-JO, EU-LB and EU-PS northbound trade and to check if the negative discrepancies in southbound trade persist. EJPAI mirror exercise should continue The role of Free Zones and QIZ might increase the discrepancies Permanent asymmetries should be monitored Improve Customs Procedure/Stat. Procedures kowledge

Management recommendations Long-term TA produce valuable results; Launch mirror exercise every 3 years Centralize/harmonize the studies Concentrate the activity in a short period Foreseen a sufficient number of days in line with objectives Involve EU Member States Informatics tools might be developed

THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION

Annex A EU-DZ Northbound: Discrepancy in HS 27, acceptable Southbound: Discrepancy in HS 87 to be monitored Note: EU-MPCs in 1 000 Euro

EU-EG Northbound: Discrepancy in HS 27, to be monitored Southbound: Discrepancy in HS 8411 (Gas turbines) to be monitored EG to assess the coverage

EU-IL Northbound/Southbound: Discrepancies in HS 71, to be monitored IL to limit the use of « Areas N.E.S. » in the future if possible

EU-JO Northbound: Discrepancies in HS 8411 (Turbojets), to be monitored Free zones in export of HS 28 (Inorganic chemicals) Southbound: Discrepancy in HS 8802 (Powered aircraft)

EU-LB Northbound: Discrepancies in HS 8710 (Tanks), to be monitored Southbound: HS 8802, 8411 and 8703 to be monitored.

EU-MA Northbound: Discrepancies in HS 8541 (Semiconductors), to be monitored Southbound: Discrepancies HS 2710 to be monitored.

EU-TN Northbound: Discrepancy in HS 89 and 64. Southbound: Discrepancies HS 8542, 2710 to be monitored.

EG-IL Eastbound: Discrepancy in HS 271121 (Natural gas). Westbound: Discrepancies in various chapters. Role of Free Zones to check.

EG-JO Eastbound: Discrepancy in HS 710812 (Gold in unwrought form). Westbound: Discrepancies in HS 31, to be monitored

IL-JO Eastbound: Discrepancy in HS 7108 (Gold) and HS 7112. Westbound: Discrepancies in HS 61 and HS 28. IL to change valuation of goods after processing

EG-PS Eastbound: Discrepancy in HS 04, 07 and 2716. Westbound: Discrepancies in HS 64 and HS 48.

PS-JO Eastbound: Discrepancy in HS 6802 (Building stones).

IL-PS Eastbound/Westbound: The exercise was done according to a tentative method of using data by activity sector. IL and PS need to cooperate on IMTS.