Global poverty and the future of aid Gideon Rabinowitz, Oxfam GB

The good news…extreme poverty (<$1 The good news…extreme poverty (<$1.90 a day) is falling, and affects fewer countries Estimated that extreme poverty fell 137,000 a day 1990-2015 Expected to be mainly a feature of sub-Saharan Africa, as well as fragile/conflict countries by 2030 (25-35 countries in total) Future scenarios sensitive to pattern of growth

For some this is where the story ends…

Who benefits from growth? …but, this is only part of the story, and global poverty is far from being defeated…Why? 1.Significant challenges for eradicating extreme poverty by 2030 Depth of poverty Who benefits from growth?

2. Looking beyond a (measly) $1.90 poverty line $1.90 a day is far from adequate In India, children living at $1.90 still have a 60% chance of being malnourished; in Niger, infants living at $1.90 have a mortality rate three times higher than the global average Someone living on $1.90 a day is one doctor’s bill, lost week’s work or unforeseen expense from extreme poverty Much more significant numbers of people in poverty looking at other poverty lines National poverty lines – 1.7 billion $3.40 a day – a lower middle income poverty line - $1.9 billion $5.50 a day – an upper middle income poverty line - $3.4 billion

Billions still in poverty……while share of top 1% soars? Trickle down in action?

WE MUST PURSUE INCLUSIVE and REDISTRIBUTIVE RESPONSES + ADDRESS INEQUALITY Mainly beyond aid issue… Global economic and financial system (global governance) Trade and corporate policy …BUT, aid can help to address inequality Target the poorest countries and people Address needs of the poor (e.g. education, agriculture, quality jobs) Address gender equality and needs of other marginalised groups Promote inclusive and sustainable growth Support countries to generate own resources

So how well does UK aid perform? Meets 0.7%, UK aid increasing £5-600m a year Significant focus on poorest countries Gender – Int’ Dev GE Act, policy + programme priority Global health champion Significant education focus Strong emphasis on creating jobs for youth bulge Support for transparency, civil society, governance

But… Share of aid to poorest countries falling Share of aid on health and education falling Growing emphasis on UK strategic interests Increase in aid to investment funds with questionable impact Growing share of aid budget outside of DFID, with weaker emphasis on poverty and transparency Less than 45% of UK Aid has gender equality as an objective Push to change aid rules