Age-targeted tuberculosis vaccination in China and implications for vaccine development: a modelling study Rebecca C Harris, PhD, Tom Sumner, PhD, Gwenan.

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Age-targeted tuberculosis vaccination in China and implications for vaccine development: a modelling study Rebecca C Harris, PhD, Tom Sumner, PhD, Gwenan M Knight, PhD, Tom Evans, PhD, Vicky Cardenas, PhD, Chen Chen, MSPH, Richard G White, PhD The Lancet Global Health Volume 7, Issue 2, Pages e209-e218 (February 2019) DOI: 10.1016/S2214-109X(18)30452-2 Copyright © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 1 Tuberculosis prevalence, 2000–50 Modelled (lines and shading) and survey-based empirical data (points and vertical bars)1 for microbiologically positive tuberculosis prevalence by age group. Shaded areas and vertical bars show uncertainty intervals. For calibration to other epidemiological and demographic calibration targets, see appendix. The Lancet Global Health 2019 7, e209-e218DOI: (10.1016/S2214-109X(18)30452-2) Copyright © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 2 Predicted percentage of incident tuberculosis cases by age and year, in the baseline scenario Vertical bars are uncertainty intervals in a given age group. The Lancet Global Health 2019 7, e209-e218DOI: (10.1016/S2214-109X(18)30452-2) Copyright © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 3 Predicted population attributable fraction of each age group to new Mycobacterium tuberculosis infections by year, in the baseline scenario Lines are medians, shaded areas are uncertainty intervals. The Lancet Global Health 2019 7, e209-e218DOI: (10.1016/S2214-109X(18)30452-2) Copyright © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 4 Predicted proportion of all annual incident disease cases due to new infections and reactivation by year in the baseline scenario Lines are medians, shaded areas are uncertainty intervals. The Lancet Global Health 2019 7, e209-e218DOI: (10.1016/S2214-109X(18)30452-2) Copyright © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 5 Predicted population-level impact of vaccine scenarios on tuberculosis incidence rate in 2050 compared with the no new vaccine scenario Vaccination was implemented in 2025–50. Adolescent vaccination was delivered routinely to people aged 15 years during 2025–50, with a 3-year catch-up campaign in people aged 16–19 years in 2025–27. Older adult vaccination was delivered to people aged 60 years, with a 3-year catch-up campaign in people aged 61–64 years in 2025–27. The Lancet Global Health 2019 7, e209-e218DOI: (10.1016/S2214-109X(18)30452-2) Copyright © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions