SEPEM ODI D.Heynderickx DH Consultancy BVBA, Leuven, Belgium 12/11/2018 Final Presentation Day, ESTEC, The Netherlands D.Heynderickx DH Consultancy BVBA, Leuven, Belgium E. De Donder, N. Messios Royal Belgian Institute of Space Aeronomy, Ukkel, Belgium

Project overview Contract No.: 4000115930/15/NL/HK Funding programme: Engineering Support Tools (EST) Contract value: €35,000 CCN Consortium DH Consultancy, Belgium (D. Heynderickx, team prime) Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (E. De Donder, N. Messios) ESA Technical Officer: P. Jiggens (TEC-EES) 12/11/2018 Final Presentation Day, ESTEC, The Netherlands

Objectives Upgrade of the SEPEM system (ESA Contract No 20162/06/NL/JD) Replace the current spacecraft data database by an ODI instance Update the H reference dataset Include updates to heliospheric model extrapolation based on updates to SOLPENCO-2 from a parallel contract (SOL2UP- 4000114116/15/NL/HK) performed by University of Barcelona Improve the web page layout Improve the quality of the graphical outputs Perform validation of new model outputs Integrate system updates from Energetic Solar Heavy Ion Environment Modelling (ESHIEM) parallel contract (4000107025/12/NL/AK) Integration in the ESA SSA Space Weather portal 12/11/2018 Final Presentation Day, ESTEC, The Netherlands

The SEPEM system SEPEM: Solar Energetic Particle Environment Modelling Database of H, He and heavy ion datasets Raw data Cleaned data Cross calibrated data (H and He reference datasets) Abundance ratio tables to scale He to heavy ion fluxes Treatment of magnetospheric shielding Calculation of radiation effect quantities TID, TNID, SEU rates, spacecraft shielded flux Mulassis for H, IRONSSIS for He and heavy ions Creation of event lists Implementation of statistical models Time above threshold, event duration Probability curves of total mission and worst event quantities Error propagation Heliospheric H models (distance dependent) 12/11/2018 Final Presentation Day, ESTEC, The Netherlands

SEPEM databases SEPEM used a single MySQL database to store spacecraft data as well as user account information and user generated content (event lists, response functions, model runs, …) Spacecraft data are now stored in a separate database, an ODI instance (see later presentation) New, extended and consistent metadata Consistent variable naming, e.g. FPDO for differential omnidirectional proton flux (COSPAR/PRBEM standard) Make use of existing ODI download and storage mechanisms Streamlined procedure for adding new datasets and updating existing ones Harmonisation with other ESA tools (e.g. SEDAT) Transparent to the user 12/11/2018 Final Presentation Day, ESTEC, The Netherlands

SEPEM datasets IMP-8 datasets: GME, CPME, CRNC GOES/SEM/EPS H and He datasets (1974–2017) Original (uncorrected 5 min) data Cleaned data (removal of spikes, gap filling) SEPCALIB cross calibration with IMP-8/GME H and He datasets -> contiguous reference H and He datasets (background correction) ACE datasets: SIS, ULEIS, SEPICA Other datasets HELIOS-A,B/E6/E7 SOHO/ERNE H, He, ions (processed in EC FP7 SEPServer project) Wind/EPACT/LEMT ion data Kp index (used with geomagnetic shielding calculations) User generated datasets of radiation effect quantities calculated on H time series data 12/11/2018 Final Presentation Day, ESTEC, The Netherlands

Update of the H reference dataset GOES/SEM H datasets GOES 5, 7, 8, 11, 13 ASCII data: 1986–2017 Complemented with SMS 1,2 and GOES 1, 2, 3, 5 binary FITS files from 1974 onward Read and re-bin telemetry data Output in same format as 5 min ASCII files One additional solar cycle of H, He, X-ray and magnetic field data 12/11/2018 Final Presentation Day, ESTEC, The Netherlands

GOES/SEM data overview Spacecraft Start Time End Time Usage SMS01 Jul 1974 Oct 1975 Jul 74 – Oct 75 SMS02 Feb 1975 Mar 1978 Nov 75 – Mar 77 GOES01 Jan 1976 May 1978 Apr 77 – Jul 77 GOES02 Aug 1977 May 1983 Aug 77 – May 83 GOES03 Jul 1978 Dec 1979 Not used GOES05 Jan 1984 Mar 1987 Jan 84 – Feb 87 GOES06 Dec 1994 May 83 – Dec 83 GOES07 Aug 1996 Mar 87 – Feb 95 GOES08 Jan 1995 Jun 2003 Mar 95 – May 03 GOES09 Apr 1996 Aug 1998 GOES10 Jul 1998 Dec 2009 GOES11 Jul 2000 Feb 2011 Jun 03 – Jan 11 GOES12 Jan 2003 Sep 2010 GOES13 May 2010 Dec 2017 Feb 11 – 2017 12/11/2018 Final Presentation Day, ESTEC, The Netherlands

GOES data calibration SEPCALIB method to re-define GOES energies using IM8/GME data Re-bin cleaned GOES data into 11 standard energy bins (5–280 MeV), per spacecraft Combine the re-binned datasets into a single time history (1974–2017) Perform background subtraction Reference SEPEM datasets RDS v2.0: H without background subtraction, He with background removed http://sepem.eu/help/SEPEM_RDS_v2-00.zip RDS v2.1: H and He with background removed http://sepem.eu/help/SEPEM_RDS_v2-01.zip 12/11/2018 Final Presentation Day, ESTEC, The Netherlands

RDS v2.1 H data 12/11/2018 Final Presentation Day, ESTEC, The Netherlands

March 2012 event 12/11/2018 Final Presentation Day, ESTEC, The Netherlands

SOLPENCO2 helioradial H event list 12/11/2018 Final Presentation Day, ESTEC, The Netherlands

Abundance ratios New ratio tables based on SEPEM He RDS as a baseline ACE/SIS ion data (C, N, O, Ne, Mg, Si, Fe): cleaned, gap filled 1 hour averages for 14 events Extended to all other elements Li-U based on Reames (1998) or Asplund et al. abundance data (2009) Calculation of uncertainties 12/11/2018 Final Presentation Day, ESTEC, The Netherlands

Magnetospheric shielding Fortran magnetic shielding code Interpolates from extensive new database of Geant4/ MAGNETOCOSMICS geomagnetic cut-off maps for different positions, epochs and Kp 12/11/2018 Cut-off rigidities interpolated and extrapolated to all space within the magnetosphere, linear interpolation in time/date, Kp Calculation of uncertainties Uses spacecraft trajectories to define transmission factors as a function of rigidity Collaboration with Shea & Smart (RCINTUT3 program) Final Presentation Day, ESTEC, The Netherlands

IRONSSIS Fast ion shielding model Developed as extension to MULASSIS Simplified particle transport - 1D multi-layer shielding for any material(s), straight-ahead continuous slowing down approach (CSDA) Similar outputs and interfaces to traditional MULASSIS 12/11/2018 Final Presentation Day, ESTEC, The Netherlands

Uncertainty propagation Calculate and propagate the range of potential uncertainties in the SEPEM calculation process, addressing: Cross-calibration of GOES/EPS and SMS/EPS data to IMP-8/GME ACE/SIS-derived abundance ratios (C, N, O, Ne, Mg, Si and Fe) Abundance ratios extended to all other elements Li-U based on Reames (1998) or Asplund et al abundance data (2009) Limited proton and He event data (>260 SPEs) giving rise to uncertainties in fit parameters Magnetospheric shielding calculation Physical shielding calculation: Monte Carlo statistics for protons and systematic errors for non-Monte-Carlo CSDA approximation 12/11/2018 Final Presentation Day, ESTEC, The Netherlands

Validation of SEPEM against SPENVIS (4.6.8) ESP proton and heavy ion fluence spectra SEU TID and TNID 12/11/2018 Final Presentation Day, ESTEC, The Netherlands

15 yr near Earth orbit mission Event based (H + ions) – SEPEM reference event list ESP fluence – 95% CL – active years only 12/11/2018 Final Presentation Day, ESTEC, The Netherlands

15 yr near Earth orbit mission Event based (H + ions) – SEPEM reference event list ESP fluence – 95% CL – active years only 12/11/2018 Final Presentation Day, ESTEC, The Netherlands Differences in the heavy ion fluence behaviour above 60 MeV are due to the scaling with He in SEPEM while in the PSYCHIC model the scaling is with H. The CREME96 derived abundances are not good but this is mainly because the He fluxes are too low, so to compensate the heavier ion abundances are much higher which is why the SPENVIS (ESP) and SEPEM (ESP+TRAD) outputs are so far below the SEPEM with use of CREME96.

SEU simulations (with previous generated ESP fluences) Unshielded SAMSUNG 16M (3.3 V DRAM) - 3.14 x 3.14 x 0.1 (µm) Si box S = 1.85 L0 = 0.60 MeV·cm2/mg W = 16.39 MeV·cm2/mg σlim = 9.87E-08 cm2/bit A = 1.17 MeV - B = 0.92 MeV 12/11/2018 Final Presentation Day, ESTEC, The Netherlands The proton induced and heavy ion (including the full range from He up to Fe) induced rates are comparable. Differences in the direct ionisation SEUs are likely due to differences in the calculated LET spectrum and adopted algorithm for calculating the deposited energy/charge inside the device during crossing. For  the latter SPENVIS uses the CREME method whereby the maximum LET of the stopping ion is applied over its entire path length in the sensitive volume.   SEPEM (events/bit) SPENVIS-4.6.8 Proton induced SEU 8.885e-3 8.918e-3 Direct ionization (He-Fe) SEU 0.839 1.177

TID and TNID simulation for H SEPEM: IRONSSIS (Mulassis mode for H) SPENVIS: MULASSIS v1.2.3 Primary fluence/flux: event based (H + ions) option - SEPEM reference event list 2 layer slab: 0.2 cm Al + 0.1 μm Si SPENVIS SEPEM 12/11/2018 Final Presentation Day, ESTEC, The Netherlands

ErrorTotalNID [MeV/g] TID response function comparison for slab geometry   SEPEM SPENVIS SPENVIS new Layer 1 Layer 2 Thickness [cm] 2.00E-01 1.00E-05 Density [g/cm3] 2.70E+00 2.33E+00 TID [rad] 1.04E-07 9.51E-08 1.45E-06 1.50E-06 1.07E-07 Error TID [rad] 2.22E-09 5.95E-09 9.49E-10 5.68E-09 6.78E-11 4.06E-10 12/11/2018 TNID response function comparison for slab geometry   SEPEM SPENVIS SPENVIS new Layer 1 Layer 2 Thickness [cm] 2.00E-01 1.00E-05 Density [g/cm3] 2.70E+00 2.33E+00 TotalNID [MeV/g] 2.14E-03 1.88E-03 3.16E-02 2.79E-02 2.26E-03  2.00E-03  ErrorTotalNID [MeV/g] 5.78E-05 1.16E-04 2.46E-04 8.31E-06  1.76E-05  ProNID [MeV/g] 2.13E-03 3.15E-02 2.78E-02 2.25E-03  1.99E-03  ErroProNID [MeV/g] 5.75E-05 5.79E-05 8.30E-06  NeutNID [MeV/g] 6.37E-06 6.43E-06 1.01E-04 1.12E-04 7.20E-06 8.00E-06  ErrorNeutNID [MeV/g] 4.34E-06 5.87E-06 5.07E-06 4.19E-07  3.62E-07  PionNID [MeV/g] 0.00E+00 0.00E+00  ErrorPionNID [MeV/g] EleNID [MeV/g] 6.27E-07 3.69E-07 4.48E-08  2.64E-08  ErrorEleNID [MeV/g] 4.41E-07 2.52E-07 3.15E-08  1.80E-08  Final Presentation Day, ESTEC, The Netherlands The difference between SPENVIS and SEPEM results is because of the energy spectrum normalisation applied for the SPENVIS results. One can get a good agreement between the two set of results by for example dividing the SPENVIS output by that normalisation factor (= SPENVIS new)

12/11/2018 Demonstration Final Presentation Day, ESTEC, The Netherlands