Péter Ákos BOD, professor, Corvinus University of Budapest Central European economies – when trends happen to change MERCATEO Summit, 2018 Somorja/Šamorín 18 April, 2018 Professor Péter Ákos BOD, professor, Corvinus University of Budapest petera.bod@uni-corvinus.hu

Europe – a decade after the financial crisis: doing well, finally Europe is not inferior to US but different: reacts slower in killing and creating jobs …or blowing and bursting bubbles (see household and company debt as % of GDP)

Central-Eastern Europe’s catch up to „Europe” – not bad for a historian but still slow for people and politicians GDP per capita, local prices, GDP of EU28=100

New member states absorb sizable EU funds since 2007 New member states absorb sizable EU funds since 2007. What comes after 2020? Net EU transfers as per cent of GDP

WiiW (Vienna) forecasts healthy growth for the region, less for Russia (right) GDP growth 2018-2020

Weak and strong points of transition countries ( on the case of Hungary) Dual nature of the economy: efficient transnationals and undercapitalized, low productivity SMEs Coexistence of urban growth poles and several pockets of poverty and exclusion Relatively high HDI (with regional and social variations), competitive higher education, growing but still moderate wage costs Fortunate time zone, proximity to dynamic European markets, relatively high stock of FDI , adequate physical and financial infrastucture

The big players in FDI are elsewhere

China has ambitions in the region: lots of talks and signing ceremonies Chinese outgoing direct investment

China’s trade in the region: significant (and unbalanced)

FDI inflow to Russia – a very peculiar regional distribution of origin of ‘foreign’ direct investment

Clouds on the horizon: see dramatic demographic changes in European periphery

Low wage level makes CEE competitive but provokes emigration to the West Industrial wages, hourly, in euro

Some countries of the region face integrity challenges

Issues to ponder over a drink…. Impact of a global trade war on extremely open economies ? Hint: CEE markets are highly exposed Economic migration in Central Europe: a threat of brain drain from CEE or a leave-return story? Populist policies: temporary phenomenon after the crisis or emergence of illiberal regimes in European periphery? Readiness for Industry 4.0? Hint: Central European countries’ position ranges 20 to 50 globally in respect of network readiness

World Economic Forum: country networked readiness