Conservation and Production Trends and Implications for the GHG Profile of Biofuels Presentation by Bill Hohenstein USDA Office of Energy and Environmental Policy September 27, 2018

Why care about greenhouse gases? GHG are a driver of the 2007 RFA and State level actions on renewable fuels (e.g. California) Increasingly a priority internationally – factoring into export markets and demand The public cares The industry has a good news to share Paying attention to these emissions can identify areas for efficiency gains and improvements

The Revised Renewable Fuels Standard In 2010 EPA released a Regulatory Impact Assessment (RIA) for the revised Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2). The RIA included a Life-cycle Assessment (LCA) of the GHG emissions associated with the production of corn-based ethanol in the U.S. The RIA LCA concluded that - on an energy equivalent basis – substituting corn ethanol for gasoline in transportation fuels would result in a reduction in CO2 emissions of 21 percent by 2022 (the last year of the RFS2). This conclusion was based on 2010 projections of emissions pathways through 2022 for 11 distinct GHG source categories associated with production of corn-ethanol (field to wheels).

2010 EPA RIA GHG Emissions Reductions from Corn Ethanol

2010 RIA LCA Emissions Categories Domestic Farm Inputs and Fertilizer N2O Domestic Land-Use Change (LUC) Domestic Rice CH4 Domestic Livestock International Land Use Change International Farm Inputs and Fertilizer N2O International Rice CH4 International Livestock Fuel and Feedstock Transport Fuel Production Tailpipe

Amazon Deforestation and U.S. Ethanol Production The largest RIA source category is emissions from iLUC - due to future clearing of tropical forest (mainly in Brazil) to expand commodity production. Data show that in the period that annual U.S. corn ethanol increased from 3.0 billion gallons to just under 14 billion gallons, deforestation in Brazil’s Amazon dropped from 10,200 square miles to just under 2,400 square miles per year. For RIA, Winrock conducted an analysis of historical land-use trends using MODIS satellite imagery from 2001 and 2004. Note US ethanol production and Amazon deforestation both trend upwards during this period. Comparison of Brazilian Deforestation (sq. km) and U.S. Corn Ethanol Production (billion gallons) by Year (Sources: Deforestation from the Brazilian National Institute of Space Research (INPE, 2014); U.S. corn ethanol production from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA, 2015)) Sources: Brazilian National Institute of Space Research 2014, EIA 2015

Understanding the drivers of land use change Babcock (2015): Model predictions of land use change associated with biofuels are inconsistent with what has happened since biofuel production dramatically increased in the mid-2000s. Why: Higher prices increase margins and accelerate new technology Expansion of multiple cropping Reduction in unharvested land

Babcock’s findings on the importance of multi-cropping in increasing supply China: Multi-cropping accounted for 71% of the increase in harvested area India: Multi-cropping accounted for nearly all of the increase in harvested area Brazil: Multi-cropping accounted for 76% of the increase in harvested area Indonesia: Multi-cropping accounted for 50% of the increase in harvested area

Comparison of International Land-use Change from Various Sources

Conservation Trends in Soybean Production

Soybean Production Regions 2010-2014 Source: Data from ARMS, courtesy of USDA ERS

Nitrogen Application On average in 2006 and 2012: 15 percent of soybean acres applied nitrogen in the Corn Belt 37 percent in the Northern plains 26 percent in the Lake States The national average for nitrogen applied to soybeans remained constant from 2006 to 2012 at 17 pounds per acre Source: Data from ARMS, courtesy of USDA ERS

Nitrogen Applied by Yield a) Graph of average applied pounds of nitrogen per bushel (based on farmer estimated yield) by USDA region. Box designates the three largest-producing regions. Regions sorted from left to right from most to least planted soybean acres. Color intensity is correlated to number of planted acres; darker colors indicate more planted acres, lighter colors indicate fewer planted acres. b) Graph of national average applied pounds of nitrogen per bushel (based on estimated yield) by farm size. Lighter color indicates earlier timepoint (2006), darker color indicates later timepoint (2012). Source: Data from ARMS, courtesy of USDA ERS

Auto-Steer On average in 2006 and 2012: The percentage of soybean acres grown using auto steer increased from 2006 to 2012 in all regions. Rates increased from 18 to 47 percent in the Corn Belt, from 30 to 49 percent in the Northern Plains and from 17 to 44 percent in the Lake States. The Corn Belt had the most acres of soybeans grown using auto steer (approximately 6.6 million acres in 2006 and approximately 15.7 million acres in 2012). Source: Data from ARMS, courtesy of USDA ERS

Auto-Steer a) U.S. map showing planted acres of soybeans by USDA region. Color intensity is correlated to number of planted acres; darker colors indicate more planted acres, lighter colors indicate fewer planted acres. Grey color indicates no data. b) Graph of national percent of acres where auto steer is used by farm size. Lighter color indicates earlier timepoint (2006), darker color indicates later timepoint (2012). c) Graph of percent of acres where auto steer is used by USDA region (upper graph) and total number of acres where auto steer is used by USDA region (lower). Box designates the three largest-producing regions. Regions sorted from left to right from most to least planted soybean acres. Color intensity is correlated to number of planted acres; darker colors indicate more planted acres, lighter colors indicate fewer planted acres. Source: Data from ARMS, courtesy of USDA ERS

Variable Rate Technology on Corn NOTE: While the 2006 and 2012 ARMS surveys asked farmers about VRT use for soybean production, there were not sufficient data. Therefore, no data on VRT use for soybean production are included in this report. We can use corn as a proxy. a) U.S. map showing planted acres of corn by USDA region. Color intensity is correlated to number of planted acres; darker colors indicate more planted acres, lighter colors indicate fewer planted acres. Grey color indicates no data. b) Graph of national percent of acres where VRT is used by farm size. Lightest color indicates earliest timepoint (2005), medium color indicates mid-timepoint (2010) and darkest color indicates latest time point (2016). c) Graph of percent of acres where VRT is used by USDA region (upper graph) and total number of acres where VRT is used by USDA region (lower). Box designates the three largest-producing regions. Regions sorted from left to right from most to least planted corn acres. Color intensity is correlated to number of planted acres; darker colors indicate more planted acres, lighter colors indicate fewer planted acres. Source: Data from ARMS, courtesy of USDA ERS

No Till The percentage of soybean acres grown using no tillage increased in 2 of 5 regions from 2006 to 2012. Rates decreased from 56 to 50 percent in the Corn Belt, remained about constant from 45 to 47 percent in the Northern Plains, and decreased from 23 to 18 percent in the Lake States. Source: Data from ARMS, courtesy of USDA ERS

No Till Graph of percent of soybean acres using no tillage by USDA region and year (upper graph) and total number of acres where no tillage was used by USDA region and year (lower). Box indicates three largest-producing regions. Regions sorted from left to right from most to least planted soybean acres. Color intensity is correlated to number of planted acres; darker colors indicate more planted acres, lighter colors indicate fewer planted acres. Source: Data from ARMS, courtesy of USDA ERS

Mulch Till Graph of percent of soybean acres using mulch till by USDA region and year (upper graph) and total number of acres where mulch till was used by USDA region and year (lower). Box indicates three largest-producing regions. Regions sorted from left to right from most to least planted soybean acres. Color intensity is correlated to number of planted acres; darker colors indicate more planted acres, lighter colors indicate fewer planted acres. Source: Data from ARMS, courtesy of USDA ERS

Overall Cover Crops NOTE: this is not crop-specific. Graph of the percent of cover crops grown on total farmland acres (including land to grow crops and livestock) by USDA region and year. Box indicates the five largest-producing regions. Regions sorted from left to right from most to least total farmland acres. Color intensity is correlated to the year; the lighter the color the earlier the year in the time series. Source: Data from ARMS, courtesy of USDA ERS