Least Developed Countries in Africa Implementation of the Programme of Action for LDCs for 2011-2020 Adam Elhiraika, Macroeconomics and Governance Division 20 - 26 March 2019 Marrakech, Morocco 2019 Conference of Ministers

Overview | LDCs in Africa 2 KEY STATISTICS: 33 of 47 (over 2/3) of the LDCs are located in Africa 654 million people live in African LDCs –over 1/2 of total population. Average HDI of African LDCs was 0.473 in 2017; 0.440 in 2010. About 15.7% of Africa’s LDC population has access to the Internet (2016), vs. 45.8% of global average Manufacturing value added as a percentage of GDP generally stagnated Sub-region 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 North Africa 6.1 7.4 6.9 5.7 6.0 East Africa 7.9 7.5 7.3 7.0 7.1 7.6 West Africa 9.1 8.8 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.4 Central Africa 2.5 2.7 3.3 3.2 Southern Africa 8.9 8.2 8.1 HIGHLIGHTS Productive capacity in African LDCs is low, esp. in Central Africa. Five African LDCs (Djibouti, Lesotho, Togo, Zambia, Tanzania) likely to meet graduation criteria for the first time in 2021 Income gains in three of these countries have slowed. Progress in health outcomes, and many social indicators has been steady over the course of the Programme of Action. Some improvements in diversification of Africa’s LDCs exports can be seen since 2008, but from low baselines. LDCs in Africa | Implementation of the Istanbul Programme of Action UNECA.ORG

Engagement in world trade is low & declining Trade | LDCs in Africa 3 Engagement in world trade is low & declining Share of exports in world trade fell since 2010; picked up from 2016 to 2017. IPoA target is to increase LDCs exports to 2% of world exports, vs 0.6% in 2017 for African LDCs Export concentration (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index) improved from 0.65 in 2008 to 0.36 in 2017 LDCs in Africa | Implementation of the Istanbul Programme of Action UNECA.ORG UNECA.ORG

Human and Social Development | LDCs in Africa 4 Human Development Improving across African LDCs; Only Togo’s HDI has fallen since 2010 Substantial improvements in health outcomes: Under-5 mortality declined from 95 in 1,000 live births in 2011 to 75 in 2017 Note: UNDP classifies Mauritania and Sudan as North African LDCs in Africa | Implementation of the Istanbul Programme of Action UNECA.ORG UNECA.ORG

Other priority areas | LDCs in Africa 5 Resource mobilization and governance Foreign direct investment to African LDCs declined by 47% during 2015-2017; vs. 26% decline for all of Africa. Governance a major challenge: Mo Ibrahim Index of African Governance shows declines on key dimensions, esp. in conflict countries e.g. Central African Republic, Somalia, and South Sudan. Governance dimensions in the Mo Ibrahim Index: Safety & Rule of Law Participation & Human Rights Sustainable Economic Opportunity Human Development LDCs in Africa | Implementation of the Istanbul Programme of Action UNECA.ORG

GNI per capita (2017) GNI Gap EVI EVI Gap HAI Outlook | LDCs in Africa 6 GRADUATION PROSPECTS Sao Tome and Principe recommended for graduation by the 2018 triennial review. Several African LDCs have potential to start graduation process in 2021. Country GNI per capita (2017) GNI Gap EVI EVI Gap HAI HAI Gap Djibouti 1880 650 36.3 4.3 58 -8 Lesotho 1280 50 42 10 61.6 -4.4 Togo 610 -620 28.3 -3.7 61.8 -4.2 Zambia 1300 70 40.5 8.5 58.6 -7.4 Tanzania 910 -320 27.9 -4.1 56 -10 Indicates meeting graduation criterion at 2018 review Indicates being within 10 points of meeting a 2nd criteria at 2018 review Note: To graduate, countries should meet at least two of three criteria. Above GNI per capita threshold Below Economic Vulnerability Index threshold Above Human Assets Index threshold But, trends in countries close to graduation are not all promising GNI per capita in Zambia and Lesotho have fallen over last 3 years; Tanzania’s GNI per capita has remained level. Should incomes continue to fall or stagnate, these countries may fall away from the graduation thresholds. LDCs in Africa | Implementation of the Istanbul Programme of Action UNECA.ORG

2020 Regional Review | LDCs in Africa 7 General Assembly Resolution 73/242–calls for a new conference on the LDCs in 2021: Member states are requested to empower the ECA to organize an African regional review meeting in 2020 to prepare for the 5th United Nations Conference on LDCs. 42. Recalls paragraph 157 of the Programme of Action for the Least Developed Countries for the Decade 2011–2020 on holding a Fifth United Nations Conference on the Least Developed Countries […] and decides to convene the Fifth United Nations Conference on the Least Developed Countries at the highest possible level, including Heads of State and Government, in 2020 Full text of para. 42: 42. Recalls paragraph 157 of the Programme of Action for the Least Developed Countries for the Decade 2011–2020 on holding a Fifth United Nations Conference on the Least Developed Countries in order to make a comprehensive appraisal of the implementation of the Programme of Action and to decide on subsequent action, and decides to convene the Fifth United Nations Conference on the Least Developed Countries at the highest possible level, including Heads of State and Government, in 2021 LDCs in Africa | Implementation of the Istanbul Programme of Action UNECA.ORG

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