Copenhagen 31 January 2008 Wind energy potential in Europe 2020-2030 Uncertainties and knowledge gaps Hans Eerens MNP Netherlands

Uncertainties Uncertainties in physical variables. Uncertainties in technological and economic variables. Human/political choices Uncertainties related to model choices. Hans Eerens, Work Programme

Uncertainties in physical variables. meteorological data (ECWMF wind fields) Spatial resolution Mountainous areas Wind fields versus meteorological station versus satellite data Development over time (climate change may affect wind conditions and land-use changes ) land-use characteristics (CLC, CDDA, Natura2000). Hans Eerens, Work Programme

Uncertainties in technological and economic variables. technology characteristics such as rated power, rotor diameter, hub height, construction depth offshore and distance to the coast investment, operation and maintenance costs costs for upgrading and extending the grid and system balancing, Hans Eerens, Work Programme

Human/political choices many constraints imposed on the construction of onshore as well as offshore wind turbines related to the protection of nature and biodiversity social and cultural concerns (such as visual aesthetics and noise) government policies ; constraints may change over time, inter alia as a result of evolving priorities and government policies. To address this type of uncertainties in determining the wind energy potential, particular scenario assumptions are made Hans Eerens, Work Programme

Uncertainties related to model choices. by process assumptions in the model structure. Examples are the translation of landscape characteristics and associated roughness factor into an effect on wind speed relationship between wind speed and power density for different hub heights, Hans Eerens, Work Programme

Conclusions uncertainties We did not estimate all uncertainties quantitatively. However,we assess the order of magnitude of the uncertainties in the physical, technological and economic variables to be smaller than that of the uncertainties related to human choices, notably the social and political constraints. While this may be seen as a weakness of the analysis, it should be noted that this category of uncertainties can be most influenced by policy decisions that address the various constraints. Hans Eerens, Work Programme

Knowledge gaps This overview of uncertainties suggests some improvements for further research to fill gaps in knowledge. Short term/low investment improvements: Improved evaluation of saturation levels in frontrunner countries, dependent on the availability of detailed wind energy data. Additional model analysis (e.g.with Green-X) to determine the potential for different scenarios for government energy policies. Sensitivity analysis for key economic and technological assumptions. More detailed analysis for areas for which model and observed wind velocities agreed the least, notably mountainous and forested areas. Attempts to apply a three zone-category to Europe to account for biodiversity constraints (no-go areas, areas where more research is needed, and suitable areas), for instance,in collaboration with or by using information from Birdlife International. Hans Eerens, Work Programme

Knowledge gaps Research issues that require greater efforts include: Cross-country trend analysis of social constraints in EEA member states, with emphasis on the countries with high economic wind energy potential. Inventory and analysis of policy-driven wind energy success stories in Europe and beyond. Further analysis of specific vulnerabilities for biodiversity related to specific bird and other species and landscapes, and application of such vulnerabilities in mapping wind energy potential in Europe. Providing a database of biodiversity research results Hans Eerens, Work Programme

Wind energy potential What determines the potential of wind energy, both onshore and offshore? Wind resource (m/s), Load Factor; Area availability (km2); Power density of wind park (MW/km2); Potential = Power Density * Available Area * Load Factor Hans Eerens, Work Programme

Thank You! Hans Eerens, Work Programme