The Weather Roulette: a game to communicate the usefulness of probabilistic climate predictions Marta Terrado, Llorenç Lledó, Dragana Bojovic, Asun Lera St Clair, Albert Soret, Francisco J Doblas-Reyes, Rodrigo Manzanas, Daniel San-Martín, Isadora Christel Jiménez

Climate predictions Weather Forecasts Climate Predictions Climate Projections ● 10 day -1 month 1 month–7 months 2-20 years 20-100 years Now-15 days Useful predictions for climate change adaptation in different sectors AGRICULTURE WATER MANAGEMENT WIND ENERGY SOLAR ENERGY INSURANCE FOREST FIRES ▼

Non-familiar for users Barriers for the uptake of climate predictions ▼ ▼ Decision uncertainty Forecast uncertainty Users request high predicted probabilities 23% Scientific community calculates different metrics, such as skill scores (forecast quality) Non-familiar for users ▼ Need to improve the way in which climate information is made salient to users ▼

The Weather Roulette mobile app ▼ Communication and engagement tool that shows the potential benefits of climate predictions over climatology in the long term ▼ Based on the approach of Hagedorn & Smith (2009) ▼ Addressed to the wind energy sector ▼ http://demo.predictia.es/roulette-app/mobile.html

2 playing options OPTION 1 CLIMATE PREDICTIONS (RESILIENCE) OPTION 2 CLIMATOLOGY In the WR the player can choose between two different forecast options: climate predictions (called RESILIENCE – name of the wind prototype) and the climatology. The roulette slots represent the possible outcome categories that can contain the observation. Here 3 categories are used: terciles. One tercile providing the probability of the observation to be above the average, in the average or below the average. Calibrated ECMWF System 4 prediction system Seasonal predictions of wind speed Historical wind speed observations (current practice in the wind energy sector)

Betting scheme 10€ 10€ 0.4€ 1€ 7.3€ 3.3€ 2.9€ 4.9€ 2.2€ CLIMATE PREDICTIONS CLIMATOLOGY 10€ 29% 49% 22% ▼ Year t ▼ 84% 0.4€ 1€ 7.3€ 7.3€ x 3 =21.9€ 12% 4% Year t+1 33% ▼ 3.3€ 3.3€ x 3 =10€ 10€ Year t Year t+1 An initial capital is set and every time all the capital is reinvested in the next round. To start, the capital is spread in the different slots proportionally to the percentage probabilities predicted. The winning slot is then determined as the slot where the real observation fall. The amount of money bet in the winning category is multiplied by 3 (inverse of the probability) The same betting scheme is applied in the case of using the climatology, but in this case each slot has the same predicted probability so the initial capital is kept constant 2.9€ 4.9€ 2.2€ 2.9€ x 3 =8.7€ Year t+…

How to play? Possibility to play the roulette 1 year ▼ Possibility to play the roulette for the whole period of 33 years (1981-2013) ▼

Play 1 year

Map of skill. The player can select a location according to the level of skill Play 1 year ▼

Play 1 year

Play 1 year

Play 1 year ▼ Helps users understand the uncertainty of probabilistic outcomes ▼ When playing for individual years, resulting return ratios can indistinctly be found above or below 1 (win or loose)

Play ALL years

Play all years Skill (ISS) : 0.18 ▼ Playing all years helps users understand that in areas with skill benefits are seen in the long term ▼ Translation of technical concepts into economic value (ROI)

Play all years Skill (ISS) : -0,02 ▼ Helps users understand that no benefits are obtained in the long term in areas without skill ▼ Translation of technical concepts into economic value (ROI)

Conclusions ▼ With an interactive game, the Weather Roulette app overcomes some of the barriers to the adoption of climate predictions ▼ The WR app helps to understand the uncertainty of probabilistic outcomes and translates technical concepts into economic value ▼ Playing for many years helps users understand that using climate predictions in areas with skill gives benefits in the long term ▼ Future developments should include experimental designs to quantify users’ learning

Thank you http://demo.predictia.es/roulette-app/mobile.html The projects participating in this presentation have received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme and the Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreements nº308291 (EUPORIAS) and n°776787 (S2S4E). The content of this presentation reflects only the author’s view. The European Commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains.