Pacific Arctic Group (PAG) Arctic Ocean Sciences Board Pacific Arctic Region (PAR) Synthesis Effort: A Contribution of the Pacific Arctic Group (PAG) to the post-IPY Legacy Jackie M. Grebmeier Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecology Group, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37932 Pacific Arctic Group (PAG) Arctic Ocean Sciences Board Syktyvkar, Russia 26 March 2008 http://www.pagscience.org

GOAL PAR Synthesis to develop a white paper on the direction for a PAG regional synthesis and modeling effort for the Pacific Arctic Region (PAR) all fields of oceanography (physical, chemical, biological, geological), atmospheric science, and ice dynamics the PAG synthesis effort is endorsed by IASC, AOSB, and the ICSU IPY project office as an IPY legacy effort

[from Maslowski et al. 2007, J. Climatology] PAG defines the “Pacific sector”* of the Arctic as the marine area from the Northern Bering Sea into the Chukchi Sea and adjacent Seas, and extending into the deep basins of the Arctic Ocean*-suggest from Aleutians and deep Bering Sea northward

10 PAG Science Themes Theme 1: Undertake seasonal and interannual ocean observations in the Pacific Arctic Sector where recent maximum sea ice retreat is occurring Theme 2: Understanding oceanic and atmospheric processes in the Pacific Arctic, including the feedback loops, are critical to mid-latitude climate variability Theme 3: Monitoring fresh water input via precipitation, riverine input, oceanic input, glacial and sea ice melt in the Pacific Arctic sector will improve our understanding of mid-latitude climate variability and provide additional information to support theme 1 Theme 4: Identify and monitor ecosystem and biological indicators (ice, water column, benthic, higher trophic organisms) of climate change in the Pacific Arctic Theme 5: Investigate sea ice thermodynamics including sea ice thickness, extent, and its interactions with ocean and atmospheric forcing in the Pacific Arctic region. Investigate sea ice dynamics such as sea ice drift, interactions between different ice packs Theme 6: Understanding the connectivity of warm Atlantic inflow to the Pacific sector, heat flux throughout Arctic, and associated biodiversity/invasion of Atlantic-species into the region. Physical gateways should be mapped and monitored, including outflow through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Theme 7: The Arctic Ocean is very poorly mapped from the seafloor to the ice above. Significant information gaps include the bathymetry, biodiversity, and knowledge of ocean currents and their variabililty over space and time. Exploration of the unknown Pacific Arctic region is essential for the construction of base maps necessary for the planning of future monitoring efforts Theme 8: The Pacific water inflow through the Bering Strait region is a key conduit for heat, salt, nutrients, and biological material (including genetic material) to the Arctic basin that influences sea ice cover, halocline formation, and the carbon cycle Theme 9: Nearshore coastal processes and subsea permafrost dynamics are important processes in the shallow Pacific shelf areas are subject to climate change impacts Theme 10: The open and closing of the Pacific gateway has occurred over geological time periods with dramatic impact on the Arctic system. The paleorecord provides a long-term record for comparative evaluation of climatic processes relative to contemporary studies in prior themes

PAR Synthesis Working Group (WG) Canada: Svein Vagle-Institute of Ocean Sciences (IOS), Canada; phys ocean China: - Jianfeng He (Polar Research Institute of China, PRIC); PO - Jinping Zhao (Ocean University of China, OUC); phys ocean Japan: Koji Shimada-JAMSTEC (Japan Marine Science & Technology Center, phys ocean) Korea: Sang Lee (Korean Polar Institute, KOPRI; bio ocean) Russia: - Oleg Shcheka (Pacific Oceanological Institute/FEBRAS, phys ocean) - Vladimir Pavlenko (Arctic Research Center/RAS, phys ocean) USA: - Jackie Grebmeier (Univ. Tennessee Knoxville, bio ocean; Chair) - Wieslaw Maslowski (Naval Postgraduate School, phys modeling)

OBJECTIVES present results from research, observation and modeling activities related to the PAG area, both retrospective and IPY efforts share information on current modeling activities covering the PAG synthesis area; work toward a shared modeling system identify major new findings and understanding of state and processes in the PAG area using best available model projections, prepare hypotheses regarding the future evolution of the physics and biology of the region prepare scientific conclusions and recommendations to guide future PAG science activities 6. specifically for the PAG region, identify critical marine components of a future Arctic Observing Network

Sea ice concentration anomaly in September : 1998-2003 mean minus 1979-1997 mean. Background contours are bathymetry Potential temperature on S=31.3 (EWG winter Atlas) The spatial pattern of ice reduction is similar to the spatial distribution of warm Pacific Summer Water that interflows the upper portion of halocline in the southern Canada Basin north of the Chukchi Sea. Shimada et al. (2006)

Examples of linkages between Shelf – Basin Interactions and the Arctic System Upper Trophics Humans Climate Feedbacks Atmospheric Forcing Solar Insolation Global Circulation Land-hydrology-sea interface Sea Ice Cover Bering Strait Inflow Shelf Carbon Cycle Shelf-Basin Exchange Carbon Storage

E.g., Important Questions Related to Reduction Sea Ice-Biology Impacts of sea ice change on biological communities early season retreat influences timing of spring bloom and associated lower trophic level consumption of organic carbon; cascading effect through trophic webs 2. Potential ecosystem changes related to more open access with lower ice open area for biological expansion, e.g., fisheries movement northward in Bering Sea 3. Scientific uncertainties evaluate whether observed changes are due to climate warming or natural variability; need evaluation time and space scales 4. Data availability and quality data mining needed for retrospective studies 5. Implications of changing ice conditions for ecosystems possible step-function ecosystem change from one set of species to another, with no way to return to cold-dominated system; resulting in change in carbon cycling 6. International dimensions upstream change in biological processes have potential downstream impacts on carbon cycle

PAG 2008 multi-ship program in the Pacific Arctic Region China (MV XueLong) – Jianfeng He Canada – (CCGS Louis S. St-Laurent/Sir Wilfrid Laurier/Nahidik) Eddy Carmack/Bill Williams/Andrew Proshutinsky Canada – (CCGS Amundsen)-Dave Barber US (USCGC Healy) –Jackie Grebmeier/Kathy Crane Japan (MV Mirai) –Koji Shimada Russia (MV Academic Lavrentiev, Krasin) – Kathy Crane (other ship operations (private industry, e.g. Shell Oil Company, MMS, tourist ships) Healy Mirai Xuelong Krasin Laurier

PAG FIELD PLANNING AND PAR SYNTHESIS ACTIVITIES Building the International PAG Multi-ship Core Program and Plan For 2008-ONGOING Identify suite of core measurement standard on cruises, how to optimize temporal and spatial coverage by vessels, optimizing cruise tracks, cross-platform opportunities/exchanges for participants, specialty activities, data processing and sharing (ONGOING; see PAG website) Identify data accessibility, integrated databases and data analysis needs for the PAG Regional Synthesis, including national plans for data archival and access, suggestions for joint data analysis and publication after IPY and possible production of an integrated database (PAR Synthesis, long-term PAG objectives)

ISSUES UNDER DISCUSSION BY PARS SG (SYNTHESIS GROUP) 1. geographic area over which data is to be considered Ans. Upstream (Bering Sea) to downstream (Chukchi Sea, portions East Siberian and Beaufort Sea, Canadian Arctic Archipelago, Arctic Ocean) 2. time period to be considered Ans. Decades leading up to IPY, IPY, and build scenarios decades past IPY 3. science questions to be addressed by the synthesis and types of data to be included in the synthesis Ans. Pacific-influenced Arctic system status and trends in atmosphere, sea ice, physical forcing, and biogeochemical/biological ecosystem response 4. linkage between observational data and modeling Ans. Results from PAG Modeling/data fusion workshop 5. Products: ? Scientific synthesis report, overview document for general public/interested parties Ans. Grebmeier approached by Springer, special issue-will rec PAG synthesis book 6. Scope: limited synthesis by select authors or larger, community focused effort via international series of meetings/working groups Ans. TBD via PAG SG discussions

PAR Synthesis Time Line and Cost 1. create PARS Steering Group by fall 2007-done 2. PARS SG prepares implementation plan and presents to PAG meeting at ASSW in Russia on March 26, 2008-in progress 3. PAG makes final decision on outline of the PARS at ASSW, 3/26/08-TBD 4. identify lead authors-in spring 2008 (Springer PAG book) 5. hold modeling workshop in February 2008, Sanya, China-Done 6. hold 1st lead authors workshop in fall 2008-USA (NOAA support, others?) 7. identify section writing teams and begin writing tasks- Fall 2008 8. Initial PAG synthesis presentations-Fall 2009 3rd Bush China-US meeting in Beijing, China and/or associated with this meeting 9. produce symposium-ready draft of peer-viewed chapters in early 2010 10. present results at IPY symposium in late 2010 (Norway)-need special session? 11 final version for Springer publication in early 2011; peer-reviewed 12. publication by end of 2011-Springer PAG Synthesis special Issue

Support via PAG Countries for Synthesis effort (need discuss PAG meeting Russia) people’s time (anticipate donated time or by each person’s agency or country) travel and communications modeling activities graphics preparation, editing, and publication-common format for synthesis report Peer-reviewed publications (Springer book, other special issues in peer-reviewed journals?)

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