30/06/2019 Trends in measured and modelled precipitation quality parameters in Croatia 1993-2012 Sonja Vidič Meteorological and Hydrological Service.

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30/06/2019 Trends in measured and modelled precipitation quality parameters in Croatia 1993-2012 Sonja Vidič Meteorological and Hydrological Service sonja.vidic@cirus.dhz.hr

Precipitation Quality Monitoring Network 30/06/2019 R2 R1 R3 R4 R5 Precipitation Quality Monitoring Network 1981-2015 Regions: Continental East (R1) Continental West (R2) Mountainous Central (R3) Maritime West (R4) Maritime Southeast (R5)

Mean annual precipitation 1961-1990

R2 R1 R3 R4 R5 EMEP GRID 50 km x 50 km

Sox (modelled) in precipitation mg/l

Sox (modelled) in precipitation

Mann-Kendall Test and Sen's Slope Estimates for the Trend of Annual Data Non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and magnitude of the trends with the nonparametric Sen’s method for estimating the slope A positive (negative) value indicates an upward (downward) trend. Trend statistics it is given for significance levels + if there is a trend at α = 0,1 (90 %) * if there is a trend at α = 0,05 (95 %) ** if there is a trend at α = 0,01 (99 %) *** if there is a trend at α = 0,001 (99.9 %)

Strong significant downward trend *** — SO4-S= in precipitation NO — *** — *** — + Strong significant downward trend in cW, cM and mW regions * — *** — ** — * —

SO4-S= in precipitation concentrations, mg S /l /yr deposition, kg S /ha /yr

Strong significant downward trend *** — NO3-N - in precipitation NO — *** — ** — Strong significant downward trend in all regions except cE *** — *** — *** — ** —

NO3-N - in precipitation concentrations, mg N /l /yr deposition, kg N / ha/yr

Strong significant downward trend *** *** NH4-N+ in precipitation * *** — * ** — *** * *** — Strong significant downward trend in all regions Except E * — ** ** — ***

NH4-N + in precipitation concentrations, mg N /l /yr deposition, kg N / ha/yr

No significant upward trend significant (*, +) downward trend ** pH in precipitation No significant upward trend at some stations significant (*, +) downward trend * *

Acidity, pH

M-K test significance for observations S ox N ox pH N rd M-K test significance for observations R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 M-K test significance for model results

M-K test for trend: dependance on the length of time series 1993-2012 2000-2012 2000-2012

Conclusions Trend in precipitation quality parameters is obtained in both, observations and model results Trend is negative (downward) at high level of significance (99.9 %) for oxidizes S, N and reduced N – for both, observed and modelled values Significance of the trend in observations depends on the length of the period (20 vs. 13 years analysed) Sen’s slope of observations compared to model values is larger Trend is not uniform over the whole territory of the country – continental Eastern part shows different behaviour (lack of trend) At Southeastern maritime region precipitation acidity shows significant downward trend.