WHY DO STATES DO WHAT THEY DO? LEVELS OF ANALYSIS What are “levels of analysis?” Ken Waltz’s idea that we need to look at (1) Individual leaders, (2) State as well as substate institutions: political and economic systems, and (3) The intl system, the last of which is anarchical, self-help, and subject to “security dilemmas.” Quick example: Let’s predict US foreign policy 10 years from now….

ARE THERE INDIVIDUAL FACTORS THAT DRIVE INTL. RELATIONS? Why do political scientists not study individuals very carefully (for example, presidential studies in PSC is sort of a backwater)? When do individuals matter most? (1) When institutions are new or unstable or unable to impose constraints; (2) when SOP’s don’t apply (especially crises) Personality traits/issues where leaders differ: Optimism & energy, worldview, need for power, distrust of others, need for affiliation Decision-making styles: Delegator or hands on? Complexity of thought? Openness to new information and ideas? Sense of self and willingness to be wrong? Mental disorders… Three recurring ones among leaders (Jerrod Post) (1) narcissism (pervasive pattern of grandiosity and risk taking; need for constant admiration, lack of empathy, high vindictiveness, rotates inner circle (2) paranoia (3) obsessive compulsiveness

ARE THERE INDIVIDUAL FACTORS THAT DRIVE INTL. RELATIONS? How would a rational leader make decisions? Why are we all predictably irrational? (Think about choosing a college, or staying at a job) A sampling of our cognitive biases: Reliance on “bounded rationality” (using “heuristics”) leads to all kinds of irrational decisions by even the most normal of state leaders: Discounting the future, especially if it is uncertain Discounting quite rare events, and not understanding basic probability (10 coins vs. 1000; how weird was it that Trump won?) Accessibility bias (afraid of terrorism, but not your bathtub?) Premature closure when making decisions: satisficing, stereotyping, and group think, Selective screens that reinforce what we already believe (cognitive consistency with our belief system), Wishful thinking (about us) and fundamental attribution bias (toward enemies). Text refers to this as “mirror images” Sunken costs/endowment principle (which is related to “prospect” theory Use of inaccurate historical analogies (aka: evoked set)

ARE THERE STATE-LEVEL FACTORS THAT DRIVE INTL. RELATIONS? Why does regime type matter with respect to what states do? Authoritarian, totalitarian, and democratic regimes… They pick very different types of leaders who are subject to very different “selectorates,” institutional constraints, and public pressures How do different economic systems shape foreign policy? Free-market vs. more centralized systems (state capitalism; socialism, command). Mono-resource (export-oriented) vs. diverse (internal market) What are some of the main differences among democracies? (1) Constitutions an judicial review (1) Presidential (divided) vs. parliamentarian systems; (2) direct/indirect elections, (3) number of parties, (4) fixed vs. non-fixed terms How do variations in bureaucracies (how capable, how political, how independent?) shape state action? Variations in Advisory systems, interest groups, standard operating procedures How do different political cultures impact state behavior: Chinese vs. Americans: We both think we’re exceptional, but we act very differently as a consequence

THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM…. To what extent does anarchy, self-help, and the security dilemma make all states aggressive much of the time> Why does the balance of power and the number of key actors matter? Imperial (empire) vs. unipolar (hegemony) systems. When are these systems particularly stable? When are they particularly dangerous (emerging counter hegemons and empire fatigue) Bipolar hegemony can be very stable Multipolar (balance of power, usually between 4-6 states). In principle more peaceful; in practice, more dyads and less cooperation (think about politics SMD vs. PR party systems) Non- or a-polar systems… haven’t had those yet. Will globalization cause it to happen? How institutionalized are the rules of our intl. system? How important are norms? How does location in the intl. system shape behavior? Proximity and relationships with hegemons