JDS INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR JANUARY 2018 SMALLHOLDER RICE FARMER’S ADAPTATION AND ADAPTIVE CAPACITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE HAZARDS IN GHANA SUPERVISOR – PROF. KENICHI MATSUI PRESENTER - ZAKARIA ABDUL-RAZAK JDS INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR JANUARY 2018

Presentation Outline Background Research Problem and Objectives Research Findings (Work In Progress) Future Plan

1- Background 1 Climate change threatens our ability to achieve global food security, eradicate poverty and achieve sustainable development (2030 agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals, FAO 2016) Challenges regarding climate change adaptation in Africa Inability of civil society and government organizations to access, interpret and use climate change information for planning and decision making (UNECA, 2014; Niang et al., 2014) SDG 13 Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts Target 1; Strengthening resilient and adaptive capacity to climate change Target 2; Improve education, awareness-raising and human & institutional capacity on climate and adaptation (FAO 2016)

Background - 2 Rice is Ghana’s second staple crop after maize(corn) Between 2010 and 2015, rice demand is projected to grow at a compound annual growth of 11.8 percent and maize at 2.6 percent However, Ghana is not self-sufficient in domestic rice supplies Upper East - 15% food insecure (WFP 2009) Declining rice production in the Upper East region of Ghana from 135220Mt in 2010 to 103330Mt in 2015 (MOFA/SRID)

Declining Rice Production Problem Statement FOOD SECURITY Declining Rice Production Production Factors Climate Small Holder Farmers Mechanization Soil Erratic rainfall Rising temperature Small farm sizes Lack of intensive cropping No Farm machinery No Irrigation Infertile Bush fire Moisture Stress

Moisture Stress on Rice Garu, 2017 Garu, 2017

Effects of Moisture Stress & Yield Moisture stress at active tillering reduces yield by 30% Moisture stress at reproductive phase reduces yield by 50 – 60% (www.agritech.tnau.ac.in/expertsystem/paddy...) climate change hazards threaten small scale rice production Increasing output levels (yields) for rice through the application of appropriate adaptation strategies is therefore imperative

Research Objectives 1 1. To assess smallholder rice farmers’ perception of the climate change hazards 2. To ascertain climate change patterns in the study area over the past two decades i) To establish the pattern of rainfall in the study area ii) To establish the pattern of temperature in the study area

Research Objective 2 3. To document climate change adaptation strategies employed by smallholder rice farmers 4. To assess the adaptive capacity of smallholder rice farmers to climate change hazards 5. To ascertain the effectiveness or otherwise of interventions introduced to smallholder rice farmers

Research Methodology STUDY AREA Sampling Five (5) rice growing administrative Districts (Zebilla, Binduri, Garu-Tempane, Pusiga and Bawku Municipality) 15 communities (3 in each district) Purposive sampling (rice growing communities) and random sampling (rice farmers) 150 farmers (30 from each district)

Data Collection & Analysis Rainfall and temperature Analysis Mann-Kendall’s trend and Sen’s slope test Coefficient of variation EXCELSTAT (Addinsoft 2017) Field survey Survey period- 25th of July to the 7th of August 2016 Four parts (4) - social characteristics, farmers’ experiences on climate change hazards, adaptation strategies and adaptive capacity and resilience SPSS Actual rainfall and temperature data (1996-2015) Literature review Personal work experience (2006-2016)

Social characteristics Survey Results 1 Table 1 Socio-Demographic Characteristics Social characteristics  Category Frequency Percent Age 20-29 10 6.7 30-39 33 22 40-49 59 39.3 50-59 28 18.7 60 & above 20 13.3 Gender Female 54 36 Male 96 64 Education JHS 15 SHS 4 2.7 Tertiary 7 4.7 Non-formal 3 2 No education 121 80.7 Years of experience 1-10 47 31.3 11-20 21-30 30 31-40 9 6 41-50 51-60+ 1 0.7 Total 150 100 130 (87%) respondents within age range 20-59 years – high active labor force 121 (81%) respondents have no formal education 103 (69%) respondents have 11- 50 years rice farming experience

Survey Results 2 Fig. 1 Farmer Perception > 60% of respondents perceived increasing temperature, decreasing rainfall, changing planting time and increasing drought 98% of respondents perceived reduced yield in rice production

Rainfall Analysis Table 2 Results of Mann-Kendall trend test for 20-year average annual rainfall Lowest, highest and mean annual rainfall is 671.70, 1561.70 and 984.25mm Ho = there is no trend in the data set and Ha = there is trend in the data set p-value = 0.048 < Alpha = 0.05. There is a trend in the 20-year rainfall data set Mann-Kendall trend test / Two-tailed test (Average Annual rainfall (mm)) Kendall's tau -0.326 S -62.000 Var (S) 950.000 p-value (Two-tailed) 0.048 Alpha 0.05 Table 3 Computed Sen’s slope Fig. 3 Decreasing rainfall trend

Temperature Analysis Table 4 Results of Mann-Kendall trend test, 20-year average annual maximum and minimum temperature Mann-Kendall trend test / Two-tailed test (Maximum temperature) Mann-Kendall trend test / Two-tailed test (Minimum temperature) Kendall's tau 0.495 -0.047 S 94 -9 Var (S) 950 949 p-value (Two-tailed) 0.003 0.795 Alpha 0.05 Lowest, highest and mean maximum temperatures are 34.75, 37.13 and 35.59oC Lowest, highest and mean minimum temperatures 20.45, 23.86 and 22.86 oC Lowest, highest and mean annual rainfall is 671.70, 1561.70 and 984.25mm Ho = there is no trend in the data set and Ha = there is trend in the data set p-value (max.)= 0.003 < Alpha = 0.05. There is a trend p-value (min.)= 0.795> Alpha = 0.05. There is no trend

Temperature Analysis Fig. 5 Table 5 Computed Sen’s slope for maximum and minimum temperature Series\Test Kendall's tau p-value Sen's slope Maximum Temperature   0.495 0.003 0.055 Minimum Temperature -0.047 0.795 -0.011 Fig. 4 Fig. 5

Coefficient of Variation Fig. 6 Coefficient of variation of annual rainfall from 1996 to 2005 = 16.5% 2006 to 2015 = 28.1% Annual rainfall have varied from the normal by 16.5% and 28.1% respectively Could account responsible for the change in planting time Fig. 7

Adaptation Strategies Majority of smallholder rice farmers using improved rice varieties (79%), early planting (88%), field bunding (71%) and transplanting rice seedlings (53%) Only 35% of respondents reported to have applied appropriate spacing

CONCLUSION There is a decreasing rainfall trend and a high rainfall variability in the past two decades - last decade (2006-2015), most severe Temperature is also increasing Farmer’s perception about climate change hazards are reliable in detecting changes in rainfall and temperature patterns and changing planting time Low level of knowledge amongst smallholder rice farmers concerning rice transplanting and using appropriate spacing as effective adaptation strategies

Future Plan Assess the adaptive capacity of smallholder rice farmers Assess the effectiveness of climate change adaptation interventions in the study area

Thank you for your attention