Z.Klimont, J.Cofala EMEP Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM) Variability in emission parameters of ozone precursors’ emissions in the GAINS model TFIEP/TFMM Workshop on Uncertainties in emission inventories and atmospheric models Dublin, Ireland, 22 October, 2007

Outline Recent development and projections of ozone precursors’ emission in Europe GAINS model versus national estimates of emissions Examples of variation in unabated NOx and NMVOC emission factors Examples of variation in activity data for 2000 Examples of variation in implied NOx and NMVOC emission factors Example of different stakeholder’s perspective on evolution of emissions (penetration of measures) Discussion

Development of total EU25 NOx and NMVOC emissions, GAINS model scenarios message: emission estimates relatively stable, lower NOx emissions for NEC are due to more stringed legislation on cars and light-duty cars

Changes in national emission inventories for 2000 - NEC vs Changes in national emission inventories for 2000 - NEC vs. earlier assessment (1) For some countries updates caused quite a big change compared with previous estimates

Changes in national emission inventories for 2000 - NEC vs Changes in national emission inventories for 2000 - NEC vs. earlier assessment (2)

National assessments vs. RAINS estimate for 2000 SO2 NOx NH3 NMVOC concentrate on NOx and NMVOC but say that you show other pollutants to check if differences for ozone precursors are smaller

PM emissions – national assessment vs. RAINS estimate for 2000 Differences particularly high because: not all countries report PM 2.5 common methodologies still under development different coverage (some sectors not included, re-suspension etc.)

Variation in unabated NOx emission factors in CAFE and NEC scenarios - The data are for EU-25 countries similar patterns for CAFE and NEC, no dramatic changes but differences among countries (different infrastructures, types of equipment)

Variation in unabated NMVOC emission factors in CAFE and NEC scenarios - The data are for EU-25 countries

Changes in activity data used in various GAINS scenarios

Changes in activity data used in various GAINS scenarios

Evolution of implied NOx ef in CAFE and NEC scenarios The value ranges for EU-25 countries

NMVOC Evolution of implied NMVOC ef in CAFE and NEC scenarios The value ranges for EU-25 countries

NMVOC Evolution of implied NMVOC ef in CAFE and NEC scenarios The value ranges for EU-25 countries

NMVOC emission trends (example for coating sector) national vs NMVOC emission trends (example for coating sector) national vs. industrial perspective

Uncertainty of sectoral NOx emissions vs. national total, UK Uncertainty of sectoral NOx emissions vs. national total, UK. Source: Schöpp et al., 2005   1990 2010 Fuel Sector Rank S.D. 10^3 tons 95 % CI Gasoline Passenger cars 1 100 ±26 % - Hard coal Power plants, existing 2 67 ±19 % 25 ±29 % Diesel Heavy duty trucks 3 65 36 ±35 % Off-road machinery 4 18 15 ±33 % n.a. Industrial processes 5 23 ±36 % 34 ±50 % Heavy fuel oil 6 7 10 Nat. sea traffic, L 8 Natural gas Domestic 12 ±28 % Nat. sea traffic, M 9 Air traffic and other 11 22 Power plants, new National total 141 ±10 % 66 ±11 %

All factors considered ±10 % ±11 % 95 % confidence intervals for total UK NOx emissions estimated in the RAINS model Source: Schöpp et al., 2005   1990 2010 Activity data ±5 % ±8 % Emission factors ±9 % ±7 % Removal efficiency ±0 % ±3 % All factors considered ±10 % ±11 %

Conclusions Uncertainty of total national emission estimates lower than sectoral uncertainties For projection years uncertainty of future activity levels plays a key role Assessment of emissions of ozone precursors burdened with lower variability compared with other pollutants (NH3, PM) Small change in unabated EFs between CAFE and NEC; GAINS sufficiently calibrated in result of bilateral consultations with MS Implied factors may change relatively quickly and therefore update for the purpose of inventory important Important improvement of emission inventories and projections achieved recently (CAFE, NEC, ARTEMIS, COPERT); Further efforts for sectors covered will bring diminishing returns Current assessments good enough for integrated assessment at the European level but: Some sectors require more in-depth analysis More detailed information needed for local assessment