Use of non-Party estimates in EMEP modelling: HMs and POPs

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Presentation transcript:

Use of non-Party estimates in EMEP modelling: HMs and POPs Oleg Travnikov EMEP/MSC-E

Requirements to emissions data for modelling Spatially resolved data for the whole EMEP region Temporal variation of emissions Chemical speciation of Hg; congeners of POPs Height of emission sources Size distribution of emitted particles

Available EMEP emissions data Completeness of reported HMs emission totals for 1990-2004 Complete datasets of emission totals are available for 20 countries There is no national emissions data for 9 EMEP countries

Available EMEP emissions data Completeness of reported PAHs emission totals for 1990-2004 Complete datasets of emission totals are available for 15 countries There is no national emissions data for 17 EMEP countries

Available EMEP emissions data Coverage of EMEP region with emission data for Pb (2004) Coverage of EMEP region with emission data for B[a]P (2004) Gridded data – 19 countries Gridded data – 14 countries

Gaps of EMEP emissions data Minimum reporting: Incomplete data on emission totals Scarce data on spatial distribution Additional reporting: No data on temporal variation No data on speciation (Hg, POPs) No data on height of emission sources No size distribution of emitted particles

Non-Party emission estimates Heavy metals (Pb, Cd, Hg) TNO estimates for 2000, 2010 and 2020 (Denier van der Gon et al., 2005) ESPREME project estimates for 2000, 2010 POPs (PAH, PCDD/F, HCB, PCB, HCH) POPCYCLING-Baltic project estimates (Pacyna et al., 1999) NILU/Lancaster University estimates (Breivik et al., 2002)

Non-Party emission estimates Pb emissions in Europe according to ESPREME estimates (2000) Pb emissions in Europe according to official data (2000)

Summary Reported emission inventories for heavy metals and POPs are incomplete and of limited value in terms of model applications Use of non-Party emission estimates allows filling gaps of official inventories and composing a complete dataset for model application Regular, reliable and officially approved non-Party estimates are required to supplement national emission data for modelling purposes