Sustainability in a Multipolar World Trends and Future of Sustainable Development June 9-10, 2011 Rob Weterings, Marjolein de Ridder, Erik Frinking

Outline Objective Methodology Key Findings Policy implications

Objective Background notion Research questions Objective 1987: Brundtland commission initiates an international momentum in developing a global policy agenda for sustainable development 2009: Climate Conference Copenhagen is dominated by national interests rather than multilateralism Research questions * How do various countries/regions define and operationalise the concept of sustainable development? * Is an international shared sustainability framework likely to develop? Objective Identify opportunities for co-operative sustainability strategies in a multipolar world

Methodology Comparative Policy review Meta-Foresight Study The Netherlands (EU), China, India, Mexico, Russia, South Africa Focus on national contexts, definitions, priorities and prerequisites, policies and strategies Economic, Environmental and Social dimension of sustainability Meta-Foresight Study Sources: 33 (mainly) English-language Foresights Focus on sustainability or sustainable development Parameters, drivers, disruptive developments, implications

Key Finding: convergence Sustainability is primarily about economic development that respects the environment and human needs Energy security is a main issue for all countries reviewed Energy is key for economic growth Concerns about energy security effectively drive policy makers Overarching issues: Climate change - Education Water scarcity - Technology

Key finding: divergence Sustainable development is a broad concept. The emphasis in national policies reflects different national contexts Russia stresses national security as a prerequisite China, India and South Africa put emphasis on poverty reduction The Netherlands and South Africa identify threats for social cohesion Climate change touches on various issues New economic opportunities in Siberia and the Arctic Ocean (Russia) Present vulnerabilities: drought, flooding, health issues (Mexico, India, South Africa) Development rights and historic responsibilities (China, Mexico, India, South Africa)

Key finding: possible scenarios Foresights are distributed across possible scenarios: International consensus in developing a joined sustainability framework National approaches driven by national priorities / ‘free for all’ Bottom up approaches by business, individuals and NGO’s

Key finding: public - private Sustainability issues need to be addressed by government and private sector State as partner State as rival State as conduit

4. Policy implications A more comprehensive approach Mitigation and Abatement of short term effects Poverty reduction and Social cohesion Education and Technology transfer Involve businesses worldwide New partnerships between state, private sector and NGO’s Coordinated action Main issues require action at the regional level Global partnerships based on shared interests: economic diplomacy?