OF THE POULTRY INDUSTRY FUTURE OF THE POULTRY INDUSTRY IN THE ARAB WORLD Title Text.. by Musa Freiji 28/06/2012

The Poultry Industry in the Arab World Contents: Protection and subsidy policies vs. open trade policy. Future prospects of table egg and poultry meat production. Possibilities of the development of the poultry industry in the Arab World. Conclusion.

Protection & Subsidy Policies Economic policies stem out of the interests of the citizens. The private sector’s ability to develop any industry and the poultry industry is one of them. The industrialized countries adopt the subsidy policy towards agriculture. - “Agricultural Policy” in USA (various forms of subsidies add up to $ 180 billion/yr). - “The General Agricultural Policy” in Europe (in excess of 50 billion Euros/yr).

Protection & Subsidy Policies (Cont.) Justifications of the agricultural subsidy policy in the industrialized countries: - Ensure availability of safe food products at reasonable prices. - Ensure good standard of living to farmers. - Spread agriculture in all regions. - Protect the environment. - Provide healthy conditions to bird and animal populations. - Avoid migration from rural areas. - Prevent unemployment in the rural areas.

Protection & Subsidy Policies (Cont.) The USA and European subsidies represent only 0.5 % of their GNP. We cannot blame the industrialized nations for subsidizing their agriculture. Subsidy Policy has encouraged investment in agriculture and created self sufficiency and exports in spite of its violation to WTO resolutions. However, it provided self sufficiency and food safety. Certain industrialized countries resort to protection as well: - Canada imposes very high tariffs on imports of dairy, poultry and meat even from USA in spite of NAFTA agreement with USA and Mexico. - Japan prevents imports of rice and limited imports of red meat. - Very strict quality standards are imposed. The under-developed and developing countries cannot subsidize.

Protection & Subsidy vs. Open Trade Certain Arab countries subsidize agriculture and poultry such as Saudi Arabia. Most of Arab countries protect their agriculture not at the requested level. The Arab countries should adopt the protectionist policy towards its poultry production. WTO approves protection but not direct subsidy. WTO members have failed so far to sign free trade agreements on agricultural products. Increase in world population will limit food exports. Most Arab countries have wrongly resorted to open trade policies of agricultural and food products, especially that no free trade agreements for agricultural and food products have been finalized between member states up to now. My estimates of future table egg and poultry meat production in the Arab World in light of open trade policies.

TABLE EGG PRODUCTION (Million Eggs) Estimate 2015 2010 Country Per Capita (Egg) Production Production * 98 3,688 89 3,150 Algiers 24 18 19 13 Comoros ** 90 7,740 84 7,000 Egypt 179 1,225 163 1,042 Lybia 30 112 26 91 Moritania 132 4,520 120 3,833 Morocco 976 20 861 Sudan 158 1,759 144 1,513 Tunisia 36 50 51 Bahrain ** 180 770 169 675 Palestine 39 1,323 950 Iraq ** 151 1,001 126 782 Jordan *** 159 461 430 Kuwait ** 195 186 783 Lebanon *** 58 192 154 Oman ** 31 55 Qatar ** 3,804 117 3,217 Saudi Arabia *** 133 2,978 2,707 Syria *** 478 435 United Arab Emirates ** 47 1,538 42 1,010 Yemen 93 33,549 79 28,746 Arab World   1,059,526 World 2.71% Arab % of world Source: * FAO ** Importing countries

TABLE EGG PRODUCTION IN CERTAIN INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES Per Capita 2010 Egg Production * (Million eggs) Country 319 90,193 USA 233 7,142 Canada 243 15,277 France 181 10,317 UK 340 14,000 Spain 215 12,280 Italy 333 41,917 Japan 278   Average Source: * FAO

POULTRY MEAT PRODUCTION IN THE ARAB WORLD 2015 Estimate 2010 Country 1000 MT Per Capita (Kg) 1000 MT * 301.47 7.72 7.02 249.46 Algiers 0.65 0.85 0.77 0.54 Comoros ** 829.65 9.30 8.45 685.12 Egypt ** 155.72 22.12 20.11 128.70 Lybia 5.20 1.35 1.23 4.32 Moritania ** 673.02 19.12 17.39 556.46 Morocco ** 25.88 2.53 2.30 21.39 Somalia 60.91 1.27 1.15 50.00 Sudan 123.47 10.69 9.72 102.07 Tunisia 9.62 6.73 6.12 7.96 Bahrain ** 59.18 13.45 12.23 48.91 Palestine 58.93 1.69 1.54 48.97 Iraq ** 188.78 27.68 25.16 155.97 Jordan ** 52.06 17.53 15.94 43.04 Kuwait ** 165.20 36.42 33.11 139.07 Lebanon ** 6.50 1.97 1.79 5.36 Oman ** 7.13 4.05 3.68 5.88 Qatar ** 691.71 22.95 20.86 571.61 Saudi Arabia ** 227.99 10.16 9.24 188.58 Syria 41.50 5.03 4.57 34.30 United Arab Emirates ** 172.05 6.49 5.90 142.10 Yemen ** 3,856.62 10.63 8.79 3,189.81 Total   12.38 85,341.00 World 3.74 % Arab % of world    Source: * FAO   ** Importing countries in addition to its production

IMPORTS OF POULTRY MEAT IN MOST ARAB COUNTRIES (in 1000 MT) 2015 Estimate 2009 * Country 7.49 6.81 Comoros 588.89 300.00 Egypt 43.30 39.36 Jordan ** 242.80 220.73 Kuwait 48.00 40.00 Lebanon ** 610.18 554.71 Saudi Arabia 120.00 109.06 Yemen ** 31.41 28.55 Bharain 226.15 115.00 Iraq 148.40 134.91 Oman ** 81.46 67.88 Qatar 374.00 311.67 United Arab Emirates ** 2,522.08 1,928.68 Total Source: * FAO ** Part of the imported is re-exported to other Arab countries under the Convention on the Arab Free Trade Zone

POULTRY MEAT CONSUMPTION IN MOST ARAB COUNTRIES 2015 Estimate 2010 Country Per Capita 1000 MT Per Capita (Kg) 1000 MT * 9.53 372.15 8.67 307.78 Algiers * 11.55 8.89 10.50 7.35 Comoros 13.36 1,191.85 12.15 985.20 Egypt 23.60 166.14 21.46 137.36 Lybia * 19.13 673.38 17.39 556.41 Morocco 1.27 60.91 1.15 50.00 Sudan 11.96 125.58 10.87 114.19 Tunisia * 34.65 236.31 31.50 195.32 Jordan 38.50 114.35 35.00 94.50 Kuwait 46.90 216.68 42.64 179.07 Lebanon 44.64 1,345.45 40.58 1,111.92 Saudi Arabia * 9.25 207.57 8.41 171.57 Syria * 10.97 290.81 9.97 240.16 Yemen 30.89 44.17 28.08 36.51 Bahrain 10.58 368.92 9.62 305.07 Iraq * 20.47 67.55 18.61 55.83 Oman * 50.71 89.25 46.10 73.76 Qatar 31.88 263.01 28.98 217.38 United Arab Emirates * 16.96 5,842.97 15.72 4,839.38 Total   Source: * FAO for year 2010

POULTRY MEAT PRODUCTION IN CERTAIN INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES Per Capita (Kg) 2010 Production (1000 MT) * Country 57.83 16338 USA 32.87 1009 Canada 18.84 1138 France 24.13 1407 UK 25.00 1027 Spain 14.35 822 Italy 11.13 1399 Japan 34.80   Average Source: * FAO

Possibility of developing the poultry industry in the arab world Development of the table egg sector is feasible. - Imports of table eggs by 7 Arab Countries: Year 2000 = 383 million eggs Year 2005 = 415 million eggs Year 2010 = 481 million eggs (+961 million to Iraq) - Imports represent less than 1.95 % of the production of these countries, except Iraq.

Possibility of developing the poultry industry in the arab world (cont Development of the poultry meat sector is problematic. - Cost of production is double that of Brazil or USA or Ukraine. - Imports of poultry meat by the largest 10 Arab Countries: Year 2000 = 465,000 MT Year 2005 = 770,000 MT Year 2010 = 2,010,000 MT - Increase in imports were 66 % in the first 5 yrs, and 261 % in the second 5 yrs. - Import duties on poultry meat in those countries range from 0 % to 30 %.

Possibility of developing the poultry industry in the arab world (cont Conditions to develop the production of the poultry meat sector: Increase import duties. Reduce cost of production by 70 %. Reduction of cost of production: 1) It is possible to reduce present cost of production by about 30 % via: Reduction of mortality to 5 % or lower. Reduction of Feed Conversion to 1.7 or lower. Increase of day-old chicks per hen housed to 135 or better.

Possibility of developing the poultry industry in the arab world (cont 2) Local production of feed ingredients may reduce the cost by a further 40 %. - Ethanol production from corn in USA resulted in increase in cost of corn and oil seeds. - USA is adamant about doubling its ethanol production by year 2015 compared to year 2009. - This policy will result in escalating corn and soya prices with time.

Possibility of developing the poultry industry in the arab world (cont 3) Therefore plantation of corn & oil seeds is becoming more feasible. - Sudan is a long time producer of sorghum and sesame. - Only 60 million hectares out of 135 million arable land are presently planted. - Sudan enjoys two Nile rivers and excellent fertile land and underground water.

The poultry industry in the arab world Conclusion Table egg production will continue to satisfy local demands. Poultry meat production will drop to levels equal to demands of fresh poultry meat. Development of poultry meat production requires: - Protection of the local sectors. - Reduction of cost of production via: Improved productivity. Control of Avian Influenza. Plantation of feed ingredients.

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