March/April 2015 - 中国海洋大学 Lecture "Advanced conceptual issues in climate and coastal science" 12 March - Utility of coastal science with emphasis on climate issues 26 March - Concepts of regional climate servicing 2 April – Detection and attribution of change 9 April - Concepts of downscaling

2. Concepts of regional climate servicing 2. Concepts of regional climate servicing with an introduction of “Klimaatlas” and “Klimamonitor” by Insa Meinke Based upon: von Storch, H. and I. Meinke, 2008: Regional climate offices and regional assessment reports needed. Nature geosciences 1 (2), 78, doi:10.1038/ngeo111 on Storch, H., I. Meinke, N. Stehr, B. Ratter, W. Krauss, R.A. Pielke jr., R. Grundmann, M. Reckermann and R. Weisse, 2011: Regional Climate Services illustrated with experiences from Northern Europe. Journal for Environmental Law and Policy 1/2011, 1-15 30 min

Challenges in science – stakeholder interactions Many … here two issues out of a larger range This is dealing with the situation western societies

A challenge: Different perceptions among scientists and the public Ratter, Philipp, von Storch, 2012: Between Hype and Decline – Recent Trends in Public Perception of Climate Change, Environ. Sci. & Pol. 18 (2012) 3-8 Bray, D., 2010: The scientific consensus of climate change revisited. Env. Sci. Pol. 13: 340 – 350

Regional administrators in German Baltic Sea coastal regions. Another challenge: Stakeholder do hardly interlink directly with climate scientists How strongly do you employ the following sources of information, for deciding about issues related to climate adaptation? Regional administrators in German Baltic Sea coastal regions. Bray, 2011, pers. comm.

Climate Change: Constructions Climate change is a „constructed“ issue. People hardly experience „climate change“. (“Constructed” does not mean "made up" or "invented“, but originating from an abstract context, which may be quite divorced from day-to-day reality. ) One construction is scientific, i.e., an „objective“ analysis of observations and interpretation by theories. The other construction is cultural, in particular maintained and transformed by the public media. Climate science operates under in a post-normal conditions (where interest-led utility is a significant driver, and less so “normal” curiosity) Postnormal conditions Jerry Ravetz, Silvio Funtovicz, 1986 and earlier State of science, when facts uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent. von Storch, H., 2009: Climate Research and Policy Advice: Scientific and Cultural Constructions of Knowledge. Env. Science Pol. 12, 741-747 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2009.04.008

One of the key elements involved in the challenges: The knowledge market The knowledge market is conditioned by the cultural context of a society. In China and Germany, different knowledge markets exist (roles, competitors)

Two different construction of „climate change“ in the west – scientific and cultural – which is more powerful? Cultural: „Klimakatastrophe“ Scientific: man-made change is real, can be mitigated to some extent but not completely avoided Temperature Lund and Stockholm Storms 8

E. Huntington 1876–1947 of Yale University Map of „mental energy“ conditioned by climatic conditions E. Huntington 1876–1947 of Yale University Distribution of civilizations in 1916, according to expert opinion.

… in western democracies Knowledge market The science-policy/public interaction is not an issue of the linear model of „knowledge speaks to power“. The problem is not that the public is stupid or uneducated. Science has failed to respond to legitimate public questions and has instead requested. “Trust us, we are scientists”. Climate science is taking place under post-normal conditions. The label “scientific” is a political tool. The problem is that the scientific knowledge is confronted on the „explanation market“ with other forms of knowledge. Scientific knowledge does not necessarily “win” this competition. Non-sustainable claims-making by climate change (stealth) advocates to the public has lead to fatigue. Overselling goes with loss of “capital” of science, namely public trust. … in western democracies 13

And in China? I don‘t know, but I would like to know more. The issues which should be examined include - how are environmental sciences influencing political decision processes? - how do scientists see their role in advising decision processes? - are there something like post-normal conditions? What does it mean for the process of science and for the process of policymaking?

One tool: regional climate services Using our own experience with the 8-year experience in setting up and running the “Norddeutsches Klimabüro”, headed by Insa Meinke.

Regional climate service is different from national climate service, as it is dealing with specific users responsible for management planning and decisions in policies and economics. It is developed in direct exchange with people, their questions and their knowledge claims. Regional climate service develops and tests formats and concepts, which may be used in national climate service. This makes regional climate service different from national climate service, which is mostly dealing with the provision of information about ongoing and possible future climate change (scenarios) at the national, sectorial and international level. In China, national climate service is a task of the Chinese Meteorological Agency, CMA. Whether regional climate service is established in some regions and urban complexes in China is unknown to me.

Regional climate service An institution set up to enable communication between science and stakeholders with regional concerns that is: making sure that science understands the questions and concerns of a variety of stakeholders that is: making sure that the stakeholders understand the scientific assessments and their limits. Provision of stakeholders with relevant knowledge, information and data about regional climate change, its perspectives and probable causes Recognition and analysis of post-normal situation (politicization of issues – an issue in western societies?) alternative knowledge claims, other drivers also changing environmental conditions

Regional climate service comprises … Building a dialogue with public and deciders Dealing with the issues of present change (consistency with scenarios) - perspectives (projections vs. predictions) - reality of culturally constructed knowledge about climate, climate change and climate impact confusion because of differently used terminology - discrimination between legitimate scientific knowledge and politically motivated knowledge claims - post-normal conditioning of climate research Provision of - robust (homogeneous) data - robust knowledge von Storch, H. and I. Meinke, 2008: Regional climate offices and regional assessment reports needed. Nature geosciences 1 (2), 78

Determining social reality: the Hamburg survey since 2008 Every spring since 2008, the survey the company FORSA is tasked to telephone-survey about 500 people in Hamburg about their opinions about climate and climate change. Climate change is considered a relevant issue – when directly asked if so. Otherwise it is not a topic among the 10 most significant issues. Attention and concern varies, without systematic changes. Storm surges are considered the most important risks in Hamburg. Ratter, Phillip, ongoing work; Ratter, Philipp, von Storch, 2012: Between Hype and Decline – Recent Trends in Public Perception of Climate Change, Environ. Sci. & Pol. 18 (2012) 3-8

Determining social reality: the confusion about „Projections and predictions“ The IPCC provides the following operational definitions : “A projection is a potential future evolution …” and “A climate prediction or climate forecast is the result of an attempt to produce an estimate of the actual evolution of the climate in the future …” But in practice these terms are mixed up. Bray and von Storch (2009) find that about 29% of climate scientists call “most probable developments” projections, while about 20% “possible developments” are labeled “predictions”. Bray, D., and H. von Storch, 2009: 'Prediction' or 'Projection'? The nomenclature of climate science. Sci. Comm. 30, 534-543

Consistency of recent regional change: Baltic Sea Region Observed CRU, EOBS (1982-2011) Projected GS signal, A1B scenario 10 simulations (ENSEMBLES) Observed and projected temperature trends (1982-2011) The observed trends are beyond the range of natural variability. In DJA and MAM the change may be explained with GHG alone; in JJA and SON other causes are also needed. Red bars – natural variability – for detection of a non-natural cause Black bar – uncertainty of scenarios – for consistency of recent trend with cause described in scenarios

Consistency of recent local change: Storm surges in Hamburg Difference betwenn peak heights of storm surges in Cuxhaven and Hamburg Main cause for recently elevated storm surges in Hamburg is the modification of the river Elbe – (coastal defense and shipping channel deepening) and less so because of changing storms or sea level. von Storch, H. and K. Woth, 2008: Storm surges, perspectives and options. Sustainability Science 3, 33-44

More details later in this talk Tools for regional climate servicing Klimaatlas / atlas klimatu http://www.ujscieodry-atlasklimatu.pl http://www.norddeutscher-klimaatlas.de More details later in this talk

Motivation: Additional user needs Climate state in Northern Germany (e.g. 1981-2010 or 1961-1990) Recent climate change in Northern Germany Consistency of recent climate change with expectations given by scenarios More details later in this talk

Tools for regional climate servicing climate con/dis-sensus reports Assessments of knowledge about regional climate change - for the recent past (200 years), for present change and possible future change - consensus of what is scientifically documented - documentation of contested issues. for + Baltic Sea (BACC) – BACC 1 done in 2008, BACC 2 presented to public in May 2015 + Hamburg region (First published November 2010; second launched in late 2014) + North Sea (in final phase) Full reports and condensed reports for general public. Reckermann, M., H.-J. Isemer and H. von Storch, 2008: Climate Change Assessment for the Baltic Sea Basin. EOS Trans. Amer. Geophys. U., 161-162

Tools for regional climate servicing homogeneous data sets of past and future change The CoastDat data set: Model generated data sets Long (60 years) and high-resolution reconstructions of recent offshore and coastal conditions mainly in terms of wind, storms, waves, surges and currents and other variables in N Europe Scenarios (100 years) of possible consistent futures of coastal and offshore conditions. extensions – ecological variables and other regions: Baltic Sea, Bo Hai, Yellow Sea, Lena catchment Clients: Governmental: various coastal agencies dealing with coastal defense and coastal traffic Companies: assessments of risks (ship and offshore building and operations) and opportunities (wind energy) General public / media: explanations of causes of change; perspectives and options of change GKSS in Geesthacht

Some applications of Ship design Navigational safety Offshore wind Interpretation of measurements Oils spill risk and chronic oil pollution Ocean energy Scenarios of storm surge conditions Scenarios of future wave conditions Wave Energy Flux [kW/m] Currents Power [W/m2] 27

Norddeutsches Klimabüro: activities and main clients

So … what? Concluding remarks

Take home: knowledge about climate Climate change is a „constructed“ issue. People hardly experience „climate change“. One construction is scientific, i.e. an „objective“ analysis of observations and interpretation by theories. The other construction is cultural, in particular maintained and transformed by the public media. Climate science operates in a post-normal situation, which goes along with a tendency of politicizing science, and scientizing politics. Cultural science need to support climate science to deal with this challenge. This is in particular so in western societies. The cultural and scientific constructions mix. In western democracies, the utility of scientific assertions in the political arena compete with their accuracy.

Regional climate service as mechanism for interacting with public and stakeholders Climate Science needs to offer “Climate Service”, which includes the establishment of a dialogue with the public and stakeholders –recognizing the socio-cultural dynamics of the issue. Climate service must take into account competing alternative knowledge claims. Climate Service should adhere to the principle of sustainability – building trust by avoiding overselling and being explicit in spelling out contested issues. Climate Service is more than providing data to mostly anonymous clients; direct interaction is in many cases needed. Also precise language should be used, no more “the science is settled”, no cavalier usage of the term “predictions”, when “projections” are meant. Climate Service will face different challenges in different countries. A climate service in Germany will look differently than a service in China.

For further reading von Storch, H., 2014: Klimaservice: Nachhaltig "Vorhersagen"? Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte, 31-32/2014, 41-46 Krauss, W., and H., von Storch, 2012: Post-Normal Practices Between Regional Climate Services and Local Knowledge. nature and culture 7: 213-230 Ratter, B., K. Philipp and H. von Storch, 2012: Between Hype and Decline – Recent Trends in Public Perception of Climate Change, Env. Sci. Pol. 18, 3-8 von Storch, H., I. Meinke, N. Stehr, B. Ratter, W. Krauss, R.A. Pielke jr., R. Grundmann, M. Reckermann and R. Weisse, 2011: Regional Climate Services illustrated with experiences from Northern Europe. J. Env. Law Pol. 1/2011, 1-15 Bray, D., 2010: The scientific consensus of climate change revisited. Env. Sci. Pol. 13: 340 – 350 von Storch, H., 2009: Climate Research and Policy Advice: Scientific and Cultural Constructions of Knowledge. Env. Sci. Pol. 12, 741-747 von Storch, H. and I. Meinke, 2008: Regional climate offices and regional assessment reports needed. Nature geosciences 1, 78

Appendix by Insa Meinke Functions of Klimaatlas Functions of Klimamonitor

Northern German Climate Atlas Direct access to information on possible future climate change in Northern Germany on the web:

Basis: 15 regional climate scenrios Emission szenarios Global models Regional models HadGM2-ES RCA4(EUR-44) RCP8.5 MIROC5 RCA4(EUR-44) GFDL-ESM2M RCA4(EUR-44) A2 ECHAM4 HEADLEY RCAO REMO ECHAM5 A1B ECHAM 5 CosmoCLM1 CosmoCLM2 REMO B2 ECHAM4 HEADLEY RCAO B1 ECHAM5 CosmoCLM1 CosmoCLM2 REMO RCP2.6 EC-EARTH RCA4(EUR-44)

Temperature may rise between 1,3°C to 4,7°C until 2100 Default setting: How could the annual mean temperature in Northern Germany change until 2100 Temperature may rise between 1,3°C to 4,7°C until 2100 Range of area means from the 15 regional scenarios: Nearest neighbor to ensemble mean: Area mean of the shown map:

Agreement among the 15 regional scenarios regarding the trend: orange and blue: agreement on increase or decrease grey: disagreement

Information on: climate state. recent climate change Information on: climate state recent climate change consistency with scenarios

Present climate

Additional information for each weather station:

Information about trends during the last 60 years Here: Warming 1,2°C

Information on consistency with expected anthropogenic changes in future Here: Warming is consistent with scenarios

Increased sunshine duration is NOT consistent with scenarios