Introducing the One Health Policy Model How will livestock growth and intensification impact public health and the environment in Sub-Saharan Africa? Introducing the One Health Policy Model Photo: Philou.cn

The livestock-zoonosis paradigm Impact on public health Increased Zoonotic Diseases Growth in Livestock Zoonotic-diseases.org Zoonotic-diseases.org Increased pressure on water sources Africantechnolgyfoundation.org Impact on Livelihoods Growth in Population Shuttlestock.com Kality.com More greenhouse gas emissions Blogs.cfr.org Livescience.com

How can a country address these challenges? Understand the nature and size of the threats Know what the policy and program options are Organize a multi-sector response Policy modeling can help support strategies that balance the need for increased livestock as a source of food and export revenues with the need to protect public health and the environment.

Types of models Research models: answer specific questions Predictive models: predict future events or indicators Policy models: assist decision-makers in understanding a problem and choosing options

Questions the One Health Policy Model can address What is the expected burden of zoonotic disease among animals and humans under alternative scenarios? What are the environmental effects of livestock growth and intensification? How will the zoonotic disease burden change with interventions to control or mitigate the effects of zoonotic diseases? What are the economic impacts of zoonotic disease?

Basic elements of the One Health Policy Model Environmental Impacts Livestock population projection Human population projection Economic Impact Zoonotic disease Public health impact

Basic elements of the One Health Policy Model Environmental Impacts Livestock population projection Human population projection Economic Impact Zoonotic disease Interventions Public health impact

Disease transmission

Examples of interventions May vary by: Animal Health Annual or routine testing of herds Herd quarantine and vaccination Production System, Disease, Country Interface - Consumers Food safety improvements, such as pasteurization Consumer education Affected Human Populations, Disease, Country Interface - Livestock Keepers Quarantine animals with symptoms Effective waste management Spillover - Consumers Regulate imports of untreated animal products Spillover - Livestock Keepers Vaccinate at-risk populations Hand hygiene Human Amplification Vaccine Disease, Country Examples of interventions

Calculation of economic impacts DALYs Infected humans Cost of DALY Value of statistical life Private out-of-pocket costs Total Cost of Zoonoses Public costs Infected animals

Calculation of economic impacts DALYs Infected humans Cost of DALY Value of statistical life Private out-of-pocket costs Total Cost of Zoonoses Public costs Price Animal mortality Value of animals lost Infected animals Animals culled Value of foregone animal production Reduced fertility

Dimensions of the One Health Policy Model Animal Species Human populations at risk Zoonotic disease Production systems

One Health Policy Model inputs and program “levers” Human population growth rate Animal population growth rate Distribution of animals by production system Distribution of humans by type of contact Interventions

One Health Policy Model outputs # human cases # of humans died DALYs Healthcare cost of human cases Economic loss # of cases in animals # of animals died + culled GHG emissions Water footprint

Kenya Beef Cattle Application of the model under the FAO/African Sustainable Livestock 2050 Initiative   2015 2050 Animal production systems - Shares Baseline & BAU Canaan Matatu Kingdom Feedlot 0.3% 41.0% 3.9% Semi-Intensive 38.0% 24.6% 48.7% Extensive Pastoralism 56.4% 8.2% 43.4% Extensive Ranching 5.3% 26.2% Total 100.0% Animal population growth Number of Animals 14,309,749 25,268,004 21,464,624 Populations exposed to animals Consumers of animal products 39% 49% 37% Livestock keepers 7% 6% Total Population 42,961,187 96,000,000

Sample Results: Kenya Beef Cattle - Brucellosis

Sample Results: Kenya Beef Cattle - Brucellosis

Sample Results: Kenya Beef Cattle – Environmental Impacts

Live demonstration of the model

For further information: Scott Moreland scott.moreland@thepalladiumgroup.com