North America 5G Outlook ITS Workshop, Ottawa March 28, 2019 Mike Murphy CTO, North & South America
Launch Plans 2018 2019 2020 2021 2023+ 1 2 3 4 5 Soft Launch iPhone 5G IoT & LTE Decline TDD/NSA R15 Dec FDD/SA R15 March Verizon Oct, 2018 FWA AT&T Dec, 2018 HotSpot All 2Q19 Mobility The Race!
Differentiate with spectrum Spectrum Plans Auctions 28GHz Jan’18 24GHz Mar’19 600MHz=326x price of 28GHz Pre-Auction Holdings Auctions 2018-2022 √ CBRS NR work started (~1y to finish) <6GHz 600 2.5 B5/66 mmWave 28+39 39 28 T-Mobile Sprint VZ, AT&T Verizon AT&T 2019 GAA 28, 24, 37, 39, 47 2020+ PAL, 3.1, 3.55, 3.7 5.1 GHz C-Band Alliance 180MHz 18-36m Canada 2019 600MHz 2020 3.5GHz 2021 28/39GHz *Re-Farming 650 MHz Use existing assets Differentiate with spectrum Acquire new assets Level playing field
e.g., mmW focus = top 20% of sites mid-band may re-use LTE grid 5G Deployment Accenture: Jan23, ‘19 USA : 800K Sites Expected Coverage Focus USA Forecast Traditional Site +36K Sites 100 75 50 25 Mid-band mmWave +227K Sites mmWave % Sites Mid Low 25 50 80 100 % Traffic e.g., mmW focus = top 20% of sites [ Typical city : 3K sites @80% coverage, 50Mbps ] mmW ~2-4x today’s sites, mid-band may re-use LTE grid
Regulatory support critical for 5G enablement US Regulatory Support reclassified broadband Internet access service as a telecommunications service subject to myriad regulatory obligations under Title II of the Communications Act of 1934, as amended (the Act). We reverse this misguided and legally flawed approach and restore broadband Internet access service to its Title I information service classification. See Protecting and Promoting the Open Internet, WC Docket No. 14- 28, Report and Order on Remand, Declaratory Ruling, and Order, 30 FCC Rcd 5601 (2015) (Title II Order). √ Siting Reform September 27, 2018 √ Accelerated mmWave Auctions 2018-2020 √ Spectrum Strategy Memorandum October 5, 2018 Regulatory support critical for 5G enablement
Capacity Forecast (US Customer) McKinsey shows 2020 Highlights LTE exhaust 2022 5G devices dominate 2023 LTE+5G capacity plan needed PB 5G Critical User Demand LTE Capacity 8X 1X LTE capacity growth, with 5G acceleration. No other options! 5G Start 5G>4G *mMIMO applied on >1GHz, LTE @5% densification/yr. *Mobile churn rate @21%
LTE Simulation – LAA, CBRS LTE Capacity vs User Demand Highlights <6GHz insufficient 2021+ mmW mandatory Indoor a major challenge need mid-band Capacity Needed (5G new bands) Challenges with mmW density & indoor coming quickly
Distributed, virtualized, low latency network Architecture New : Edge Architecture & Suppliers Far Edge New : Interfaces Metro Edge Core CRAN vRAN Open eCPRI / F1 UPF AMF MEC IMS UDM W5 GAN LTE, 5G, FWA Automation/Security Flexible placement Open Distributed, virtualized, low latency network
Converged Architecture MSO, MNO Assets Converged Architecture COs, Cable Hubs Overlap Shared Common CRAN vRAN UPF AMF MEC IMS LTE, 5G, FWA DOCSIS, PON UDM Automation/Security DOCSIS N2/N3 XPON vCMTS vOLT W5 GAN Convergence Technically Viable Active customer proposals in progress
Core View √ X √ 3GPP Options Alternate 3x+2 (no eLTE) Inter-System Handoff √ Launch: 3x 4G Services EPC EPC 5GC X Alternate 3x+2 (no eLTE) Transition: 7x, 4 4G & 5G Services *R15 ASN.1 June ‘19 EPC 5GC 4G UE 3X UE 2 UE √ Target: 2 5G Services 5GC Decision on options ~1Q19
RAN Evolution Linear Capacity Centralization vRAN Phase 1 vRAN Phase 2 Hubs USA ~2300 YE19 Commercial 2019 / 5G Field Trial 2020 Linear Capacity Centralization vRAN Phase 1 vRAN Phase 2 PDCP RLC PDCP RLC MAC AirScale 4G & 5G RLC MAC Costs well known CPRI eCPRI / F1
Fundamental change to industry Open Systems AI Fundamental change to industry MANO Target innovation, cost Approach is disaggregation Disrupting status quo …aligns with Nokia vision Edge EDGE STACK RIC Trials 2019 RAN O-RAN Total ~20 Forums Many new - 2018
Use Cases 5G Fixed Wireless Access 2019 Mobility Fixed 2020+ Nokia 5G CPE 3.5 2019 mmW 2020 2020+ 28GHz – 300Mbps (e.g., Verizon) 3.5GHz – 100 Mbps (e.g., Optus) Verticals (IoT) VZ 800MHz Optus 60MHz Where are we?
New Market Players Triggers CBRS Edge Clouds Openness 144 Members Salt & Pepper Mix & Match Where are we?
Tick-Tock, or Why 5G Must Happen Soon in the US August 21, 2018 Mike Murphy, chief technology officer in North America for Nokia, said U.S. wireless carriers need a minimum of 100 MHz each in 3.7-4.2 GHz C-band to deploy 5G services. He also urged U.S. action on siting, saying infrastructure can be deployed more quickly in China and South Korea. There should be standardized processes and costs for deploying small cells, Mr. Murphy suggested. TR Daily April 20, 2018
Nokia 5G