The new impact-based severe weather warning system at the Austrian Meteorological Service ZAMG Mag. Christian Csekits Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und.

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Impact Based Forecasting

Presentation transcript:

The new impact-based severe weather warning system at the Austrian Meteorological Service ZAMG Mag. Christian Csekits Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG) Tel.: ++43 1 36026/2302 oder /2311 Fax: ++43 1 36026/73 Email: christian.csekits@zamg.ac.at Internet: http://www.zamg.ac.at Acknowledgments to H. Rieder, A. Ohms, T. Turecek, A. Frank, C. Ortner, P. Rainer and M. Weis

Impact-based severe weather warning system Outline EMS Conference, Budapest, 3rd to 7th of September 2018 05.07.2019 Motivation Impact-based severe weather warning system Quality check of data from fire brigade operations ‘quick and dirty’ verification of warnings Conclusions

Motivation EMS Conference, Budapest, 3rd to 7th of September 2018 05.07.2019

BUT high impact due to late snow event (orange/red): Motivation EMS Conference, Budapest, 3rd to 7th of September 2018 05.07.2019 small snow amounts in the flat areas (threshold based warning system: green or yellow) BUT high impact due to late snow event (orange/red): * wet, heavy snow due to warm ground (spring!) * trees with leaves * people not used to late snow (summer tyres on vehicles) * many snow ploughs were removed from the trucks

Impact-based severe weather warning system EMS Conference, Budapest, 3rd to 7th of September 2018 05.07.2019 climatological thresholds first criterion for hazard classification initial colour of the warning level changed due to environmental conditions and probability of hazard: * situation before precipitation event (dry/wet period, fast melting snow) * growing stage (number of leaves on trees - important for snow and wind events) * time of weather event (during morning early traffic: all roads are blocked, holidays? weekend?) * population density (more people affected by the weather event) * ……..

Impact-based severe weather warning system EMS Conference, Budapest, 3rd to 7th of September 2018 05.07.2019 Probability Impact A few days before the weather event, the first guess based on climatological thresholds, can be modified due to the uncertainty and the actual situation by using the Weather Impact Matrix from UK Met Office.

Quality check of data from fire brigade operations EMS Conference, Budapest, 3rd to 7th of September 2018 05.07.2019

‘Quick and dirty’ verification of warnings EMS Conference, Budapest, 3rd to 7th of September 2018 05.07.2019

Plans for the near future EMS Conference, Budapest, 3rd to 7th of September 2018 05.07.2019 Fire brigade operations data from all federal states more ‘near real time’ impact reports from trusted spotters and public Collection and storage of observed damage data due to severe weather closer cooperation with insurances, state office of agriculture, federal bureau for forestry, hydrological offices, etc.

Verification of the impact * Trusted spotter reports, EWOB, WOW, media Conclusions EMS Conference, Budapest, 3rd to 7th of September 2018 05.07.2019 Verification of the impact * Trusted spotter reports, EWOB, WOW, media reports, insurance data, reports from fire brigade, ambulance and police, reports from companies, reports from individuals, etc. RELIABILITY and QUALITY of the data??? * if your warning was perfect: damage will be less (people were prepared) verification is bad!

Thank You very much for Your attention! Any questions??? 05.07.2019 Folie 11 EMS Conference, Budapest, 3rd to 7th of September 2018 05.07.2019 Thank You very much for Your attention! Any questions???