2018 SO2 Emissions Evaluation for Non-Utility Sources

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Presentation transcript:

2018 SO2 Emissions Evaluation for Non-Utility Sources E.H. Pechan & Associates, Inc. 2018 SO2 Emissions Evaluation for Non-Utility Sources Jim Wilson and Andy Bollman E.H. Pechan & Associates, Inc. Presentation to WRAP Stationary Sources Joint Forum Meeting November 2006

Presentation Outline Study Purpose Methods Summary Revisions Since August Overall Results Findings

Study Purpose Update the SO2 emission milestones for the 309 States Non-utility source focus Milestone sources >100 tpy SO2 in 2004 at the facility-level

Methods Summary Starting point – 2018 SSJF-sponsored emission projections MS Excel files posted on SSJF/ projections site 2002 emissions Growth and control factors Equation to estimate 2018 emissions Revised base year emissions to 2004 values where needed

Methods Summary (Part 2) Revised SO2 emissions and algorithms Consulted with States/sources Evaluated economic basis for growth factors Industry consultations Revisions made

Revisions Made Since August Chemical Lime Plants (AZ) - revised base and 2018 SO2 estimates Added Arizona Clean Fuels refinery to 2018 estimates Refineries (WY)-included EDMS version 1.3 data in base year - this revised 2018 values

State-Level Emission Comparisons Base Year Emissions 2018 Emissions (ERG) 2018 Emissions (Pechan) Arizona 28,786 47,170 35,333 New Mexico 17,837 21,119 21,965 Oregon 5,301 5,979 4,503 Utah 9,597 10,176 9,314 Wyoming 37,647 45,685 43,097 5 State Total 99,167 130,129 114,212

Sector-Level Emission Comparisons Base Year Emissions 2018 Emissions (ERG) 2018 Emissions (Pechan) Combined Heat & Power 3,801 2,620 Copper 26,181 46,028 32,000 Wood/Paper/Pulp 5,897 6,247 4,708 Cement 642 909 937 Chemicals/Plastics 2,015 3,129 Oil and Gas 32,900 45,529 46,574 Refining 13,023 14,308 12,579 Food 813 595 Glass 109 180 Metals/Mining/Minerals 12,596 9,289 10,710 Miscellaneous 1,189 1,294 Subtotal 99,167 130,129 114,212

Findings Base year data issues New vs. existing source SO2 rates for non-boilers or FCCUs Refinery capacity expansion uncertainty Oil and gas Upset emissions importance Calibration of activity growth to regional forecasts Additional comments on the October report for this sector (post-2002 control installations)