LAMAS Working Group 7-8 December 2016 Agenda Item 4.2 Quality monitoring of MUR estimates Denis.LEYTHIENNE@ec.europa.eu Eurostat

Background Importance of MUR data (among the main PEEIs) Need to monitor quality: to better interpret the results and avoid false signals to the users to help countries comparing the performance of the different methods NOT for publication Agreement (by TF and then LAMAS) on the main quality indicators to be used for measuring revisions / volatility of MUR data Need to test those indicators on all countries, for the same reference period, and fine-tune the thresholds where needed Eurostat

Main indicators and thresholds V1: The ‘Correlation of month-on-month changes’ that should remain within the [-0.3; 0.75] interval V2: The ‘Frequency of double large inversions’ to be below 5% R2: The ‘Frequency of very large revisions in levels’ to be checked against the 10% threshold R3: The ‘Frequency of large revisions in month-on-month changes’ that should remain below 10% Eurostat

AT, BE, CZ, DK, ES, FR, IE, LU, MT, NL?, SK   Results   Low revisions R2 < 10% AND R3 < 10% Low revisions in levels OR M-on-M changes OR High revisions R2 >10% R3 >10% High Smoothness (V1 > 0.75) DE, FI IS Medium Volatility / Smoothness V1 Є [-0.3 ; 0.75] HU, UK, NO, PL AT, BE, CZ, DK, ES, FR, IE, LU, MT, NL?, SK BG, CY, EE, EL, HR, LT, PT, SI High Volatility (V1 < -0.3 OR V2 > 5%) SE RO, IT

LAMAS is invited: To take note of the 1st results of the quality monitor of MUR data   To agree on focusing on 4 core indicators of which 2 measure volatility (V1, V2) and 2 measure revisions (R2, R3) => EoV: 20/25 MSs in favour To take note of the resulting typology of MUR estimates as summarized in the table To agree that Eurostat updates this quality monitor on an annual basis for presentation at LAMAS (not for publication) => EoV: 22/26 MSs in favour Eurostat