Safety Risk Management Tools  EVA Air’s Perspective & Implementation Presented by Danny Ho Safety & Security Div. EVA Air Corporation Aug 30, 2013

Philosophy on Safety Risk Management Predictive thinking, proactive implementation and reactive response. Comprehensive, effective, feasible and sustainable. Effective safety management requires the ability to have the right system to collect and analyze the right information at the right time.

Safety Risk Assessment of Flight Operation -Traditional Practice Real Time Monitoring (ACMS/AHM) + Post Flight Analysis (FDM/FOQA)

Real Time Monitoring: ACMS & AHM MCD FSD

Post Flight Analysis WGBBS Daily Trend Analysis 30 40 50 70 80 90 WGBBS Daily Trend Analysis Hazard Identification & Risk Management FDM/ Aerobytes (QAR) Flight Data Animation DFDR A/C Performance Analysis

FDM/FOQA Event Review Event Review Meeting Statistics/Data base Flight Data Alert Event Daily Report FDM Statistics/Data base Detect Event Quarterly Report Annual Report Trend Analysis Report Training Improvement & Procedure Modification

Beside the real time monitoring & post flight analysis, what miss on Safety Risk Assessment of Flight Operation ? Before the flight!

Comprehensive Safety Risk Assessment of the Flight Operation Before the flight During the flight After the flight FORAS ACMS/AHM FOQA/FDM

FORAS Flight Operations Risk Assessment System FORAS is a system which designed to capture risk attributes on the areas of crew, aircraft functionality and sector threats, and allow risk mitigation efforts could be deployed before the flight.

Flight Operation Risk … Newly check out Captain and F/O flying together Fatigued crew with MRT Non precision approach or ILS out of service Strong cross wind Low visibility with rain or snow Thrust Reverser INOP RWY is not grooved with percipitation The complexity of approach procedure & runway configuration Operating crew never operating into this airport before …

Project Background FORAS concept generated by ICARUS Committee Think Tank of FSF Sponsored by : NASA Prototype Developed by : Dr. Michael Hadjimichel FORAS Development EVA AIR & Dr. Michael Hadjimichel

System Introduction FORAS is a methodology for generating a risk model, which produces a relative, quantitative measurement of a specific risk exposure in flight operations. Gather the weather information, crew experience, navigation aids, and aircraft’s status etc. A decision support tool to measure and reduce risk exposure. A decision aids for risk awareness, not a GO or NO GO decision tool. Proactive, predictive approach to aviation safety. Analyze operational risks and take the actions of relevant risk mitigation to ensure a safe operation.

FORAS Fuzzy inference engine 2. System Architecture CRTS: Crew Rostering and Tracking System FIS: Flight Information System SMIS: Safety Management Information System CRTS FIS SMIS NOTAM Weather System EVA Database FORAS Fuzzy inference engine FORAS CPI engine FORAS Models

FORAS Flight Operations Risk Assessment System DRV : Departure Risk Value ALRV : Approach & Landing Risk Value DRV & ALRV will be calculated automatically 2.5 hrs before the flight.

Model structure DRV / ALRV Terminal value (T-value:Dep117;Arr146) Crew Variable (Dep77;Arr85) Sector Variable (Dep6;Arr11) Aircraft Variable (Dep1;Arr1) Code Description TA01 Approach and Landing-related MEL Items TC01 Experience pairing TC02 Rank composition TC03 English proficiency TC04 Multi-nationalities TC05_C Airport recency TC06_C Special airport/runway TC07_C Numbers of previous visits TC08_C EVA type hours TC09_C Flying recency as PF Rule Tables (Dep133;Arr166) Terminal value (T-value:Dep117;Arr146) Code Description P001_1 PILOT1 RANK P002_1 PILOT1_GRADE P003_1 PILOT1_NATIONALITY P004_1 PILOT1_LASTTIME_AT_AIRPORT P005_1 PILOT1_SECTORS_AT_RANK P005_2 PILOT2_SECTORS_AT_RANK P006_1 PILOT1_LIFE_TIME_HOURS T value definition Raw Data (D-Value: Dep116;Arr141)

Crew Functionality Pilot Fatigue Intercrew Pilot Experience Communication Pilot Experience Pilot Fatigue Transient Fatigue Cumulative Fatigue A/C Flying Experience Airport Familiarity Experience Pairing Rank Composition Comm. Proficiency Airport recency Special airport/runway Numbers of previous visits

A/C Flying Experience Total Hours Sectors Flying recency as PF EVA type hours Pre-EVA hours EVA hours Type landing Landing at rank EVA landing

Transient Fatigue Pre-workload Pre-flight Rest In-flight fatigue Previous sectors flown on this duty period Duty hours since beginning In-flight Rest Duty hours of this flight In-flight rest hours Pre-flight circadian night Pre-flight rest hours Extra crew availability Crew bunk availability

Cumulative Fatigue Work Amount Rest Previous Flying Schedule stability Rest recency Rest amount Pre-7 days workload Pre-30 days workload Pre-90 days workload

Aircraft Functionality DRV & ALRV-related MEL Fleet Items A330 : 64 B747 : 64 B777 : 104 MD11 : 79 B777-300ER DEP 22-11-09B Takeoff/Go-Around (TO/GA) Switches 32-42-01A Normal Antiskid Valve 32-30-01 Landing Gear Actuation System ARR 22-11-02B Autopilot Backdrive Actuator System 22-11-06B Mode Control Panel Switches-A/P Engage Switches 22-31-01 Autothrottle System 31-51-05A WES Autopilot Disconnect Warning Function

Sector Threat Airport Weather Weather Complexity Visual Condition Convective Wx Issues Precipitation Crosswind Components Ambient Light Ceiling Margin Visibility Margin

ATC English proficiency Airport ATC Functionality Approach Complexity Congestion ATC control quality ATC English proficiency A/P Familiarity Runway complexity Airport busy hour

Approach Complexity Flying Complexity Runway Complexity Special airport/runway Runway Complexity Precision approach Approach go-around rate Airport terrain/obstacle Grooved runway Sunlight effective issues

Conclusion Why we need FORAS? The core elements of Safety Management System is hazard identification & risk management. FORAS is playing a vital & predictive role on Safety Risk Management. A promotion program is under development.

FORAS Promotion Program Promote FORAS via a non commercial avenue Airlines who are interesting to acquire FORAS shall donate certain amount of fund into FORAS Fund according to its fleet size. Set up a FORAS Fund and manage it via a committee of trustees The Fund will be utilized to set up FORAS Scholarship, FORAS Award and the future development of FORAS, and other aviation risk management initiatives.

FORAS Promotion Program will be available on Q4 2013. Internet Airline A Airline B Airline C Frontend Server Backend Workstation XML Frontend Server DB Inference Models Engine

Thank you! Q&A