Ensuring Aviation Safety in a changing world Presented by Yannick Malinge / Senior Vice-President & Chief Product Safety Officer

The changing landscape of Aviation… In 1960, 40 aircraft took off every hour. Today, there are 3100 aircraft taking off every hour, that is almost one every second around the world.

The changing landscape of Aviation… The number of commercial airlines worldwide increased by 70% over the past 40 years. It doubled in the Indian sub-continent. It more than trippled in China. It was multiplied by 4.5 in CIS. Today, there are more than 2000 commercial airlines around the world

The changing landscape of Aviation… The number of airports for commercial aviation worldwide remained virtually unchanged over the past 40 years. In Europe, Japan or the US, 1 runway is built every ten years. In China 82 new airport projects are planned to be started by the end of 2015.

The changing landscape of Aviation… The fleet of the largest airline is above 700 aircraft. 40% of airlines have a fleet of less than 5 aircraft.

The changing landscape of Aviation… In 1970, a « low cost » airline didn’t mean anything Today, 15% of the traffic is performed by low cost airlines worldwide Southwest was the first low cost airline ever. It started in 1971.

The changing landscape of Aviation… In the 80’s, airlines employed almost exclusively local pilots Today, some airlines employ more than 10 different nationalities of pilots

The changing landscape of Aviation… A barrel in current US $ was around 33 $ in 1982, 19 $ in 1992 25 $ in 2002 Today, it is above 100 $ Source of Data: IHS Global Insight

What will the aeronautical environment look like in the future?

dynamic complex system Air Transport is a dynamic complex system with huge variability

What is the Global Safety Perspective ? What are the possible ways forward ?

Where do we stand in terms of accident records? Fatal accident per million departures 1st generation Early jets 2nd generation 2nd jet generation 4th generation FBW Flight Envelope Protection All generations

The key question: how to move forward? Fatal accident per million departures 1st generation Early jets 2nd generation 2nd jet generation 4th generation FBW Flight Envelope Protection All generations

Ways forward MAJOR RISKS CHALLENGES Loosing sight of key assets: high professional standards Taking safety for granted CHALLENGES The holistic nature of air transport The variability of operational contexts The dynamic nature of the Aviation System…and its uncertainty 

Ways forward MAJOR RISKS CHALLENGES Loosing sight of key assets: high professional standards Taking safety for granted CHALLENGES The holistic nature of air transport The variability of operational contexts The dynamic nature of the Aviation System…and its uncertainty 

Fatal accident rate – Dec. 2012 Fatal accident per million departures 1st generation: Early jet 1st generation 4th generation: FBW Flight Envelope Protection 4th generation 3rd generation: Glass-cockpit Nav display FMS 3rd generation 2nd generation: 2nd jet generation 2nd generation All aircraft Years of operation Sources: Ascend, Airbus

Fatal accident rate What has aviation learned? BSE Workshop Toulouse, 13 Sept. 2013 Fatal accident rate Fatal accident per million departures 1st generation: Early jet 1st generation 4th generation: FBW* Flight Envelope Protection 4th generation 3rd generation: Glass-cockpit Nav display FMS 3rd generation 2nd generation: 2nd jet generation 2nd generation What has aviation learned? Automation has brought safety benefits & will continue, Sharing of information is vital, Keeping highest training standards is one of the keys. *100% of Airbus today production line from A318 to A380 + B777 and B787 All aircraft Years of operation Sources: Ascend, Airbus

High professional standards Air Transport: a dynamic complex system with huge variability Need to maintain the highest professional standards One example: evolution of pilot job Pilots are less & less exposed to manual flying conditions Evolution of pilots background Demand for new pilots EBT, learning from positive, sharing experience

High professional standards

Taking safety for granted 10-7 Safe Air Transport System Safe Airline Operations Growing fleet Variability of configurations Ageing fleet New business models Increased operational pressure Evolution of aviation professionals Variety of aviation background Evolution of ATM New operations (e.g. RNP) Evolution of regulation Increased financial pressure Increased operational pressure & congestion in some areas Safe Aircraft Within a context of fast developing countries, buzz society, increasing liability stakes developing safety awareness and sound SMS

Ways forward MAJOR RISKS CHALLENGES Loosing sight of key assets: high professional standards Taking safety for granted CHALLENGES The holistic nature of air transport The variability of operational contexts The dynamic nature of the Aviation System…and its uncertainty 

The holistic nature of Air Transport System A number of safety initiatives have been launched over the years by the individual actors of the air transport system, eg Flight Envelope Protection Terrain Avoidance Warning Runway Overrun Protection Short Term Conflict Alert …. Need for more combined approaches at ATS level RNP deployment program Regional Aviation Groups …

Ways forward MAJOR RISKS CHALLENGES Loosing sight of key assets: high professional standards Taking safety for granted CHALLENGES The holistic nature of air transport The variability of operational contexts The dynamic nature of the Aviation System…and its uncertainty 

The variability of operational contexts In many cases ways forward to enhance safety are known, but not implemented, eg Offer alternatives to circling approach Runway design: grooving, safe overrun, Ensure basics are known and understood Ensure implementation of robust Flight Data Monitoring Promote the sharing of information … Need for ad hoc approaches Capability to focus on the right things to do first

Ways forward MAJOR RISKS CHALLENGES Loosing sight of key assets: high professional standards Taking safety for granted CHALLENGES The holistic nature of air transport The variability of operational contexts The dynamic nature of the Aviation System…and its uncertainty 

The dynamic nature of the Air Transport System… and its uncertainty Probabilistic approaches allow for anticipating a number of scenarios. Yet, there will always be unprecedented and unanticipated situations… Coping with of air transport evolution and its uncertainty: need for prospective approaches Considering the pace of evolution of air transport and the overall worldwide context, there is a need for approaches looking at possible future evolutions and associated safety concerns to become more proactive than reactive.  Need for prospective approaches: volcano in Iceland, 911, Developing ATS resilience Although many things can be anticipated and controled, it would be unrealistic to pretend that every single situation can be anticipated and a proper answer developed a priori. Events such as 9/11 or the eruption of the volcano in Iceland are illustrations. Therefore, in order to enhance safety at the air transport system’s level, there is a need to improve resilience i.e. capability to continue to ensure safe operations despite unforeseen « shocks ». From a priori responses…to resilience

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