Decision Making Skills Achala Dahal/Nabin Chapagain Nepal Administrative Staff College

Forethought Some are easy like… Some are difficult like…

How decision matters ?

Decision matters Organization Team Relation Individual as a officer…

“A Decision is a Judgment.” Peter Drucker INTUITION (Gut Feeling – past experience and personal values) REASONING/JUDGEMENT (Facts and Figures)

What best decision maker do ? -HBR review Sept 2018 They are very clear about the end goal; They think in terms of options or alternatives, often out of box;  They seek diverse inputs and look from different angles

Albert Einstein- Rebel, failure, genius.mp4

“ I am not a product of my circumstances, I am a product of my Decisions” – Stephen Covey

Obama’s way of decision making "You're never 100 percent certain that the course of action you're choosing is going to work. What you can have confidence in is that the probability of it working is higher than the other options available to you. But that still leaves some uncertainty, which I think can be stressful, and that's part of the reason why it's so important to be willing to constantly reevaluate decisions based on new information.”- Barack Obama Obama makes decisions slowly, and with head, not gut Source: WashingtonPost.com/ Politics 2009

Decision Making Components Environment Decision Making Tools Decision Making Realities Authorities in Decision Making Influencing Factors in Decision Making Six Cs

Decision Making Environment

Factors influencing decision making Cognitive and personal biases Emotional bias Skills and competencies Situational factors Instrumental factors Integrity and ethics Powers Political Legal, Social, Technological Administrative Muscle, Money…

Decision Making Realities Everybody has their own unique set of values: what they believe to be important. The decisions that you make will, ultimately, be based on your values. That means that the decision that is right for you may not be right for someone else. circumstances

Decision making tools Six thinking Hats Problem Restatement technique SWOT analysis/ PEST analysis / Stakeholder analysis / Spoiler analysis Pareto principle: 80% of unfocussed effort generates only 20% of results. The remaining 80% of results are achieved with only 20% of the effort Brainstorming/ Delphi Technique / Nominal Group Technique Cause and effect Cost benefit analysis  Problem Restatement Technique  Broaden our perspective of a problem, not to solve it  Help us identify the central issues & alternative solutions  Increase the chance that the outcome our analysis produces will fully, not partially, resolve the problem Decision Making Tools 50. II- SWOT Analysis: 1- Strength 2- Weaknesses 3- Opportunities 4- Threats Decision Making Tools 51. III- Pareto Principle: 80% of unfocussed effort generates only 20% of results. The remaining 80% of results are achieved with only 20% of the effort. Decision Making Tools 52. Decision Making Tools Individual Brainstorming: 1. Tends to develop fewer ideas, but takes each idea further 2. Can be risky for individuals. Valuable but strange suggestions may appear stupid at first sight. Group Brainstorming: 1. It is best for generating many ideas, but can be time consuming 2. Needs formal rules for it to work smoothly( Disagreements) 3. Group brainstorming sessions are usually enjoyable experiences, which are great for creating cohesion in a team IV- Brainstorming: No criticism of ideas, free rein is given to creativity 53. Decision Making Tools V- Cause& Effect VI- Porter’s 5 Forces: 54. VII- Cost Benefit Analysis: Cost/benefit analysis – evaluating quantitatively whether to follow a course of action. Add up the value of the benefits of a course of action and subtract the costs associated with it. Decision Making Tools 55. VII- Six Thinking Hats- Tools/ Framework Creative Positive Objective Feelings Negative Process Avoid confusion Parallel Thinking = cooperation

Six Thinking Hats

Exercise Total Time: 30 Minutes तपाई कार्यरत गाऊँपालिकाको सामाजिक विकास कोषमा १० लाख रुपैया छ । सो रकमको माग विभिन्न वडाबाट महिलाको क्षमता विकास, जेष्ठ नागरिकका लागि पार्क, विपन्न वर्गका बालबालिका लागि अतिरिक्त शैक्षिक कार्यक्रम र युवा खेलकुद विकास जस्ता कार्यक्रममा छ । सो रकम कुनै एक कार्यक्रमलाई दिने निर्णय six thinking hat को विधि प्रयोग गरि गर्नुहोस् ।

Decision making tools Six thinking Hats Problem Restatement technique SWOT analysis/ PEST analysis / Stakeholder analysis / Spoiler analysis Pareto principle: 80% of unfocussed effort generates only 20% of results. The remaining 80% of results are achieved with only 20% of the effort Brainstorming/ Delphi Technique / Nominal Group Technique Cause and effect Cost benefit analysis  Problem Restatement Technique  Broaden our perspective of a problem, not to solve it  Help us identify the central issues & alternative solutions  Increase the chance that the outcome our analysis produces will fully, not partially, resolve the problem Decision Making Tools 50. II- SWOT Analysis: 1- Strength 2- Weaknesses 3- Opportunities 4- Threats Decision Making Tools 51. III- Pareto Principle: 80% of unfocussed effort generates only 20% of results. The remaining 80% of results are achieved with only 20% of the effort. Decision Making Tools 52. Decision Making Tools Individual Brainstorming: 1. Tends to develop fewer ideas, but takes each idea further 2. Can be risky for individuals. Valuable but strange suggestions may appear stupid at first sight. Group Brainstorming: 1. It is best for generating many ideas, but can be time consuming 2. Needs formal rules for it to work smoothly( Disagreements) 3. Group brainstorming sessions are usually enjoyable experiences, which are great for creating cohesion in a team IV- Brainstorming: No criticism of ideas, free rein is given to creativity 53. Decision Making Tools V- Cause& Effect VI- Porter’s 5 Forces: 54. VII- Cost Benefit Analysis: Cost/benefit analysis – evaluating quantitatively whether to follow a course of action. Add up the value of the benefits of a course of action and subtract the costs associated with it. Decision Making Tools 55. VII- Six Thinking Hats- Tools/ Framework Creative Positive Objective Feelings Negative Process Avoid confusion Parallel Thinking = cooperation

Decision making Styles/approaches Authoritarian Democratic Laissez-faire Authoritarian style includes: Characteristics: Demands group members perform tasks quickly and efficiently Causes unhappy relationships to develop Dictates group activity Is firm, demanding and direct Group does not experience feeling of teamwork Does not accept the ideas of others Uses power to influence others to carry out ideas Tells others what to do Limits discussion on ideas and new ways of doing things Authoritarian leadership can be effective when: Time is limited Individuals/group lack skill and knowledge Group does not know each other Authoritarian leadership can be ineffective when: Some degree of skill/knowledge is in members Group wants an element of spontaneity in their work Developing a strong sense of team is the goal Democratic style includes: Allows group members to feel they can do tasks their own way Allows free flow of ideas Asks before telling Keeps group focused Is friendly and sociable Involves group members in planning and carrying out activities Promotes a sense of teamwork Motivates group members Makes decisions and determinations based upon group’s consensus Shapes groups with regard to consensus opinion Democratic leadership can be effective when: Time is available Some degree of skill or knowledge among members of group Group is motivated and/or a sense of team exists Democratic leadership can be ineffective when: Group is unmotivated Laissez-faire style includes: No skill/knowledge is in members High degree of conflict present Allows group members to do whatever they want Gives little or no direction to group/individuals Does not direct group activity A person does not seem in charge Is less structured than democratic Stays on the same level as the group Produces groups that are not very productive Opinion is offered only when requested Laissez-faire leadership can be effective when: Routine is familiar to participants High degree of skill and motivation Sense of team exists Laissez-faire leadership can be ineffective when: Low degree of skill/knowledge is in members Group expects to be told what to do Low sense of team/independence Which style or approach suits you ?

Approaches/Styles to Decision Making No one style appropriate for all situations. Occasions when one style rather than any other is more likely to produce better quality decisions implemented with greater success. Each style has a probability of getting results depending on the maturity of followers and the situation. Need to adopt a flexible approach by varying style in response to the nature of the decision and the context in which it is made and ultimately implemented.

Six Cs of Decision making Construct: A clear picture of precisely what must be decided Compile: A list of requirements that must be met Collect: Information on alternatives that meet the requirements Compare: Alternatives that meet the requirements Consider: The “what might go wrong” factor with each alternative Commit: To a decision and follow through with it.

Personal trap in decision making Not willing to come out of comfort zone Fear and biasness in thinking and analysis Getting lost in minutia Seeking unanimous approval Willing to decide beyond authority

System trap in decision making Too little, inaccurate or wrong information Overlook viable alternatives or waste time considering alternatives beyond realistic prospects Not following the six Cs Failure to clearly define the expected results Worst of all, failure to reach a decision

“Maybe pushing on that wall to the left will give some space.” System thinking is crucial “Maybe pushing on that wall to the left will give some space.”

“Oops!”

Considerations Priority Ethics Standards Implementation Teams and Network Technicalities Indecisiveness and Decline Diversity Risk propensity

Conclusion No organization can run without making decisions Wellbeing of an organization depends almost on the quality of its decisions Make decisions based on rational process rather than temporary feelings Make a habit of reevaluating own decisions: remove biases and errors System thinking is crucial for organizational decisions

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