The Strategic Case for Gold Amsterdam 11 October 2009

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Globalization and International Investing
Advertisements

Witan Pacific Investment Trust plc 102 nd Annual General Meeting 9 th June 2009.
Exchange Rates and the Foreign Exchange Market: An Asset Approach
Money and Banking Chapter 31 McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2009 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Chapter 10 Exchange Rates and Exchange Rate Systems.
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Chapter 15 Money, Inflation and Banking.
Chapter 10 Exchange Rates and Exchange Rate Systems.
Chapter 1 The Study of Body Function Image PowerPoint
1 Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Appendix 01.
Hans Timmer and Richard Newfarmer World Bank December, 2006 Global Economic Prospects, 2007 Managing the Next of Globalization.
6 - 1 Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc All rights reserved. CHAPTER 6 Risk and Return: The Basics Basic return concepts Basic risk concepts Stand-alone.
Jeopardy Q 1 Q 6 Q 11 Q 16 Q 21 Q 2 Q 7 Q 12 Q 17 Q 22 Q 3 Q 8 Q 13
Jeopardy Q 1 Q 6 Q 11 Q 16 Q 21 Q 2 Q 7 Q 12 Q 17 Q 22 Q 3 Q 8 Q 13
New England Pension Consultants Oklahoma State Pension Commission Investment Performance Analysis Quarter Ending 9/30/2001.
Copyright 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies 18-1 Price Elasticity of Demand Total Revenue Test Elasticity on a Linear Demand Curve Price Elasticity and the.
1 MACROECONOMICS AND THE GLOBAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT Monetary Policy 2 nd edition.
Commercial Bank Operations
The Federal Reserve System Chapter 14 Copyright © 2010 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw-Hill/Irwin.
1 Money and Banking Professor Chris Adam Australian Graduate School of Management University of Sydney and University of New South Wales.
1 SimBank Bank Financial Management Simulation Fernando E. Arellano, Ph.D. University of Dallas Richard D. Johnson, Ph.D. Colorado State University.
Hedging Strategies Using Futures
Chapter Outline Hedging and Price Volatility Managing Financial Risk
Real Estate Market Analysis
Indonesia’s current account challenge
Foundations of Chapter M A R K E T I N G Copyright © 2003 by Nelson, a division of Thomson Canada Limited. Understanding Pricing 13.
Chapter foundations of Chapter M A R K E T I N G Understanding Pricing 13.
Chapter 10 Project Cash Flows and Risk
Money, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates
International Economics: Theory and Policy, Sixth Edition
Money: definition Money is the stock of assets that can be readily used to make transactions.
Copyright Aditya Birla Nuvo Limited 2008 Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund.
DAVID CHAPMAN MGI SECURITIES INC.. 2 INTERMARKET TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GOLD CHARTS GOLD CHARTS Dow/Gold Gold/Oil Gold/Silver Gold/Platinum Gold/Bonds Gold/XAU.
1 Shift in gold production from traditional to emerging countries Marino G. Pieterse Editor Goldletter International China Mining 2008 – Beijing November.
Ascenta Bullion Plus Fund Introducing the.. Ascenta Bullion Plus Fund Introducing the.. Ascenta Bullion Plus Fund.
Measuring the Economy’s Performance
BEEF & VEAL MARKET SITUATION "Single CMO" Management Committee 17 October 2013.
Research Department 1 Global Economic Crisis and the Israeli Economy Herzliya conference Dr. Karnit Flug Research Director, Bank of Israel February 2009.
Case Study - Why Hedge Funds? Investing in the future, diversifying your risks Masako Watanabe & Associates Limited 1105 Printing House, 6 Duddell Street.
University of Aberdeen Superannuation & Life Assurance Scheme (UASLAS) Funding and Investment 11 June 2013.
Model and Relationships 6 M 1 M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M
25 seconds left…...
Barry Dawes B Sc F AusIMM(CP) MSEG MSAA Head of Resources Paradigm Securities Resource Sector Outlook Investment Opportunities.
1. What’s contributing to current market volatility?
McGraw-Hill/Irwin© 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 12 Multinational Accounting: Translation of Foreign Entity Statements.
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Chapter 11 Market-Clearing Models of the Business Cycle.
Short-Term Financing 20 Chapter South-Western/Thomson Learning © 2006 Slides by Yee-Tien (Ted) Fu.
Copyright © 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Chapter 20 Money Growth, Money Demand, and Monetary Policy.
Measuring Exposure To Exchange Rate Fluctuations
Copyright ©2004, South-Western College Publishing International Economics By Robert J. Carbaugh 9th Edition Chapter 13: Exchange-Rate Determination.
Investing in Stocks Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Learning Objectives 1. Invest in stocks. 2. Read stock.
CHAPTER 14 Expectations: The Basic Tools Expectations: The Basic Tools CHAPTER 14 Prepared by: Fernando Quijano and Yvonn Quijano Copyright © 2009 Pearson.
CLIENT INVESTMENT UPDATE Wholesale Products Appendix 30 September 2014.
PIC Investments Performance Update Year ended 30 September 2014 APPENDIX Advisor Use Only.
Management of Deposit Insurance Funds 16 November 2006 Michael Wilson
Government Guaranteed Loan Products Overview, Features & Benefits First Quarter 2014.
p. 1 To Significantly Increase Your Returns in World Outlook Financial ConferenceVancouver, BC ©2012 Richardson GMP Four Secrets Neil McIver,
Subprime Krizi ve Global Etkileri US Existing Home Sales.
Markets chartpack June Key Australian economic news Source: BT Financial Group  The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left interest rates on hold.
January 2013 Going global in fixed income. Agenda Going global in fixed income China – another debt bubble in the making? M&G Global Macro Bond Fund The.
Economic and Market Recap April Equity and Fixed Income Markets IndexMar (%)QTR (%)2014 (%)2013 (%)2012 (%)2011 (%)2010 (%) S&P/TSX Composite.
External Sector Econ 102 _2015. External Sector How is a country linked with other countries in the global world? 1)There are exchange of Goods and Services.
ETF Trading Strategy Bigfoot, Whiddon Wealth Management, LLC and LPL Financial are separate unaffiliated entities. Whiddon Wealth Management, LLC 2410.
Gold Market Update Improving Fundamentals N EWMONT January 2002.
Satch Chada, Structured & Alternatives Solutions, Merrill Lynch Michael Forstl, Structured Products Consulting Group, Nuveen Investments April 16, 2008.
Kevin M. Wilson, PhD Chairman/CEO 1405 Medical Arts Building 324 W. Superior Street Duluth, MN Office: Toll Free: Fax:
Tutor2u ™ Exchange Rates A2 Economics Presentation 2005.
GOLD Investment Analysis Krassimir Petrov, Ph. D. The American University in Bulgaria, Dept. of Economics.
External Sector Econ External Sector How is a country linked with other countries in the global world? 1)There are exchange of Goods and Services.
Gold will be “Fear Asset” In 2017
Presentation transcript:

The Strategic Case for Gold Amsterdam 11 October 2009

Disclaimer The information and opinions contained in this presentation have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. This presentation does not purport to make any recommendation or provide investment advice to the effect that any gold related transaction is appropriate for all investment objectives, financial situations or particular needs. Prior to making any investment decisions investors should seek advice from their advisers on whether any part of this presentation is appropriate to their specific circumstances. This presentation is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or solicitation to buy or sell gold or any gold related products. Expressions of opinion are those of the World Gold Council only and are subject to change without notice.

Introducing World Gold Council Funded by the world’s leading gold mining companies We promote the use of gold in all its forms through marketing activities in major international markets. Offices in key consuming countries: India China Middle East United States MEMBERS Agnico Eagle AngloGold Ashanti Barrick Gold Corporation Coeur d’Alene Mines Corporation Compania de Minas Buenaventura Eldorado Gold Goldcorp Gold Fields Limited Harmony IAM Gold Kinross Gold Corporation Newmont Mining Corporation Peter Hambro Mining Yamana Gold ASSOCIATES Cedimin China National Gold Corporation The Hutti Gold Mines Company Kahama Mining Minera Yanacocha S.R.L. Mitsubishi Materials Corporation Royal Gold Inc.

Outline Demand and supply fundamentals – resilient demand and constrained supply The outlook Key investment attributes A hedge against inflation A hedge against dollar movements A safe haven and insurance policy A diversifier

Demand and Supply Fundamentals

Q2 tonnage down 9% on Q2 2008

Price volatility a constraint on jewellery demand

China the lone positive jewellery story

A breakdown of investment demand Tonnes, Q2’08 Tonnes, Q2’09 % change Identifiable investment 151.9 222.4 46 Net retail investment 147.9 165.7 12 ETFs and similar 4.0 56.7 1315 “Inferred investment” 10.2 195.1 1657 “Total” investment 162.1 417.4 157 Source: GFMS

European flows remain very buoyant

ETF flows generally long term in nature

Share of identifiable demand Source: GFMS

Total Q2 supply down 23% on Q1 2009

Net central bank sales have continued to reduce

The Strategic Investment Case for Gold

Why gold? A safe haven and form of insurance A simple asset No default risk No counterparty risk Liquid Gold’s history As a means of exchange As the centre of the global monetary system

Gold is a hedge against inflation uncertainty Inflation or deflation? Gold is a long run hedge against inflation Yet, a period of deflation suggests ongoing economic uncertainty, so safe haven flows would remain underpinned Medium to longer term, inflation is a significant risk

Gold is a long run hedge against the US dollar

Correlations, weekly returns 3 years ending June 2009 Gold is a diversifier Correlations, weekly returns 3 years ending June 2009 Gold 1.00 FTSE 100 -0.22 DAX 30 -0.20 S&P500 -0.10 MSCI World Ex UK -0.28 LB /BarCap Global Treasuries Index , TR, GBP 0.02 LB/BarCap Global Treasuries Index, TR, Euro -0.01 Euribor, 3 month 0.01 UK Lending Rate, 3 month 0.03 Red text denotes that correlation coefficient is not significantly different from zero. Violet text denotes that correlation coefficient is negative (5% level of significance). Data: Global Insight, Lehman Bros., WGC

Gold is not particularly volatile Average 22 Day Volatility, 1 August 2007 – 31 October 2009(%) Oil 50.1 Silver 41.2 Palladium 36.1 GSCI Index 32.8 Nikkei 31.7 Platinum 31.2 FTSE 27.4 Gold 23.8 Dow Jones Euro Stoxx Index 20.3

where does gold fit into a portfolio?

Results with gold added

Over and above a commodity basket Optimal Portfolios Composition Map 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% 4.3% 4.6% 4.9% 5.4% 6.0% 6.7% 7.3% 8.0% 8.8% 9.6% 10.5% 11.4% volatility allocation UK Gilts Short UK Gilts Medium UK Gilts Long Global Bonds UK Equities Europe Ex UK Equities North American Equities Pacific Equities Gold Commodities

Summary The demand for gold has shown considerable resilience across the economic cycle The three sectors provide a source of balance The outlook for supply remains constrained High levels of uncertainty – economic, inflation, currency – are supportive for gold Gold’s biggest strength is its diversification properties - the focus on diversification and risk management are expected to continue

Questions? www.gold.org www.invest.gold.org