Wind Energy Potential in Europe: 2020 – 2030 Model Calibration and Saturation Analysis Michael Harfoot Expert Meeting, EEA Copenhagen. 31st January 2008

Outline Introduction Model Calibration Saturation Analysis

Introduction Forecasting wind speeds at turbine height (i.e. near the surface) Roughness (retardation) Orography (large-scale influences) Different sources for wind speed estimation Model prediction Satellite observation (Synthetic Aperture Radar) Site observations (ocean buoys, Met stations, Radiosondes) Reanalysis modelling (NCAR and ERA-40) ECMWF wind fields Spatial extent High resolution Homogeneous Comprehensive observational assimilation

Introduction – European wind speeds Wind Speeds across Europe

Model Calibration Aims Methodology Confirm the GIS model methodology can reasonably predict wind speeds in agreement with observations, i.e. doesn’t result in large errors Methodology Comparison against European meteorological stations for 2001 from National Climatic Data Centre, For which wind speed observations made: on average more than twice per day for greater than 75% of the year

European-wide

Geographical differences DE, DK, NL NO, SE, FI FR, ES, PT AT, CH

Elevation/Orography

Roughness

Estimation of errors - High/Low wind speeds

Estimation of errors

Saturation Analysis Aims Assumption What is the impact of assuming a ‘re-powering’ of the current turbine installations Evaluate the impacts for installed capacity in NL is penetration levels for DK are achieved there. Assumption Repowering to 2 MW turbines each with a footprint of 0.2km2 (based on power density of 10 MW/km2 achieved with 5 turbines) Repowering (DK) – 500 MW increase to capacity (ca. 15%)

Saturation Analysis (DK)

Saturation Analysis (NL)

Saturation Analysis

Saturation analysis

Conclusions Wind speeds predicted using the model methodology show first order agreement with observations of surface wind speeds Uncertainties are greatest for areas with higher surface roughness or significant terrain scales Greater penetrations are acceptable where wind speeds peak Saturation levels in NL and DK may achieved a penetration level consistent with potential Based on our assumptions, saturation levels in DE are higher than in DK or NL