Modern Trends: the Broken Branch?

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Modern Trends: the Broken Branch? V. Revitalized and Polarized Political Parties Before Polarization “There is no dime’s worth of difference between the two parties.” (Gov. George Wallace in the 1968 election) “Conservative Coalition” from the 1930s through the1980s = conservative southern Democrats + minority Republicans = particularly united over foreign/defense policy issues = “Blue Dog” Coalition for fiscal responsibility Now, “red vs. blue” states, polarization in Congress: Real or Myth? Driving force? ideology, issues, culture, the media, etc

Party polarization in Congress, from 1879 to 2003

How do MCs vote in Congress? Four Determinants of Lawmakers’ Voting (External and Internal Influence on Legislators) (Voting Cues for Legislators) 1. Constituency 2. Members’ own (Ideology, Experience, etc) 3. Party 4. Presidency

Influences on Member Decisions I. Constituency: yet, ambiguities in determining constituent preferences (“Marginality Hypothesis”) II. Members’ own preferences (ideology, religion, career background) III. Party (leadership and general party identification) IV. President – obviously more influential with own party (“president as a source of partisan polarization”) Let’s embarrass their president! vs. Let’s embrace our president!