Model Output Statistics

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Gridded MOS – A Prototype System

Advertisements

Accessing and Using GFS LAMP Products National Weather Service Meteorological Development Laboratory Mesoscale Prediction Branch Scott D. Scallion, March.

MDL Accomplishments and Plans: MOS, LAMP, EKDMOS, Storm Surge, AutoNowCaster, VLab NCEP Production Suite Review December 4, 2013.

Probabilistic Forecasting in Practice

NATS 101 Lecture 3 Climate and Weather. Climate and Weather “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” -Robert A. Heinlein.

MOS Developed by and Run at the NWS Meteorological Development Lab (MDL) Full range of products available at:

The Do It Yourself Internet Weather Briefing With thanks to Sam Zimmerman Start with the Big Picture General Synoptic Situation Likely cloud cover Precip,

MOS What does acronym stand for ? –MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS What is the difference between the GFS and GFS MOS ?

Improving Gridded Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) Guidance by Using Emerging Forecast and Observation Systems Judy E. Ghirardelli, Jerome P. Charba,

00 UTC 18 Dec Runs 204 h forecast of 540 DM height valid 12 UTC 26 Dec.

Weather Observation What is the weather in different places?

Printed Reports and Forecasts

1 Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics Program (LAMP): Improvements to convective forecasts in response to user feedback Judy E. Ghirardelli National.

Forecasting Workshop 2009 Ryan Alliss, Andy Mair, Matt Hoffman.

Future of the NWS What Does It Mean? Where Are We Going? When Are We Going To Get There? How Are We Going To Get There? Aviation Is Foundational.

Station Models How Meteorologist can look at a lot of cities’ data at once!

Utilizing Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) for Improved Forecasting Judy E. Ghirardelli National Weather Service Meteorological Development Laboratory.

Summer WAS*IS 2006 National Weather Service Verification Program Overview Brenton MacAloney II National Weather Service Headquarters Silver Spring, MD.

By John Metz Warning Coordination Meteorologist WFO Corpus Christi.

MDL Lightning-Based Products Kathryn Hughes NOAA/NWS/OST December 3, 2003

Model Post Processing. Model Output Can Usually Be Improved with Post Processing Can remove systematic bias Can produce probabilistic information from.

HOW TO BEAT MOS Need to understand how it works MOS does well when: –Weather is close to climatology (equations lean toward the modal case) MOS does poor.

Earth Science Core Curriculum: 2

CC Hennon ATMS 350 UNC Asheville Model Output Statistics Transforming model output into useful forecast parameters.

Guidance. What is Guidance? If it helps you to decide on a forecast, then it is guidance.

ATS/ESS 452: Synoptic Meteorology Friday 2/8/2013 Quiz & Assignment 2 Results Finish Thermal Wind MOS decoding (Assignment) New England weather.

Briefing by: Roque Vinicio Céspedes Finally Here! The MOST awaited briefing ever! February 16, 2011.

MOS AVN = Dynamical Model –Seven fundamental equations ! AVN MOS = Statistical Model –No seven fundamental equations ! –Equations are statistical, not.

The Weather Station Model Get accompanying notes here Draw a Station Model.

Quiz Do Quiz on worksheet page ________ –Use the map given to answer the following questions. –Use your ESRT! –Hand in when done.

Station Models : Symbols used to represent weather conditions in a select location.

Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) Judy E. Ghirardelli National Weather Service Meteorological Development Laboratory February 05, 2009.

Improved Gridded Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) Ceiling and Visibility Guidance using HRRR model output Presenting: Judy E. Ghirardelli/Adam Schnapp.

Bias Correction of RTFDDA Surface Forecasts Presented by: Daran Rife National Center for Atmospheric Research Research Applications Laboratory Boulder,

MDL Requirements for RUA Judy Ghirardelli, David Myrick, and Bruce Veenhuis Contributions from: David Ruth and Matt Peroutka 1.

2004 Developments in Aviation Forecast Guidance from the RUC Stan Benjamin Steve Weygandt NOAA / Forecast Systems Lab NY Courtesy:

Aviation Products from the Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) Judy E. Ghirardelli National Weather Service Meteorological Development Laboratory Presented.

1.What is the temperature? 2.What is the present weather? 3.What is the wind speed? 4.What is the wind direction? 5.What is the pressure? 6.What is the.

Station Model Eric Angat Teacher. Station Model 1.What is a station model? 2.What is the weather data in the center circle? 3.How do you determine the.

Penn State Weather Camps Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines Sat I Sat I - NWS - NHC - Radar - RadarNWSNHCRadar sfc. map 1 sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 – sfc.

LAMP improvements for ceiling height and visibility guidance*

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Usage, Strengths, Limitations & Strategies Don Day, DayWeather, Inc.

Hydrometeorological Predication Center

Realities (NDFD, NDGD, IFPS)

Synoptic Weather.

Better Forecasting Bureau

Winter Forecasting Tips By Rick Garuckas and Andrew Calvi

Recent Climate Change Modeling Results

Model Post Processing.

Basic Forecasting Tips By Rick Garuckas and Andrew Calvi

Journal #58 List the instruments used to measure lower atmospheric conditions: List the the instruments used to measure upper atmospheric conditions:

Aviation Forecast Guidance from the RUC

Recent Climate Change Modeling Results

MOS Developed by and Run at the NWS Meteorological Development Lab (MDL) Full range of products available at:

Interpreting Information Shown at a Weather Station

Post Processing.

FORECAST MODELS: DYNAMIC(PHYSICAL) VS. STATISTICAL

CLIMO EXERCISE LONG-TERM AVERAGES.

Unit 4 Weather about Doppler Radar.

New Developments in Aviation Forecast Guidance from the RUC

Station Models Yajustgottaknow’um

VERIFICATION – DAY (noon) - 74 (high) - CLD: 2.5/10.

VERIFICATION – DAY – High - CLD: 5/10.

NATS 101 Lecture 3 Climate and Weather

NATS 101 Lecture 3 Climate and Weather

MOS What does acronym stand for ?

6.11: Fronts Unit 6: Meteorology March 13, 2012 Sanders.

Weather Station Models

Atmospheric Sciences 452 Spring 2019

NATS 101 Lecture 3 Climate and Weather

Presentation transcript:

Model Output Statistics What form does a MOS forecast take? Text (specific station) or gridded Text Forecast for Caribou, ME Gridded Forecast of 6-hr Precipitation Accumulation http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/mavcard.php Full Description

Model Output Statistics N/X: min/max temperature TMP: temperature DPT: dewpoint temperature CLD: cloud cover WDR: wind direction (add 0) WSP: wind speed (knots) P06/12: probability of precipitation (%) Q06/12: quantitative precipitation forecast T06/12: T-storm probability (%) POZ: probability of freezing precip. POS: probability of snow CIG: ceiling height category VIS: visibility category OBV: obstruction to visibility category time

Model Output Statistics

Model Output Statistics MOS performance: it really works! Verification Statistics for 00 UTC Temperature Forecasts during the 2002-2003 Cool Season

GFS MOS extended-range (MEX) http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/mexcard.php

Lab Assignment for Sandberg CA Forecasts for Sept 28th – Oct 8th (We will be forecasting for the rest of the Quarter…this will just get use started) Using MOS extended forecasts, enter your forecast for the week Tue,Wed,Thur,Fri . This provides a good temporal trend to model changes. All forecasts are due by 00z for the 24hr period 06z-06z next day. High-Low (F), Max Wind Speed (knots), Total Precip (inches) To improve your daily forecast consider both NAM and GFS MOS for the current days forecast. Evaluating a more recent analysis and MOS forecast always will add value to the forecast process.

GFS MOS-Based LAMP guidance

LOCALIZED AVIATION MOS PROGRAM (LAMP) FOR SHORT-RANGE FORECASTING Used a lot for Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAF)