Sea-Level Rise and Flood Resilience Planning: Why Data Are More Important than Models (and, by the way, I’m a Modeler) Dr. Jason M. Evans – Stetson University Florida Planning and Zoning Association – Suncoast Chapter June 6, 2019 Key West, FL

A few SE Atlantic communities planning for sea-level rise

Local Government Context Local governments in the coastal zone are right at the front line of trying to understand, plan for, and pay for future flood management in a time of climate change

Yes, the sea is rising… Trend of approximately 9 inches over 100 years

Yes, the sea is rising… Trend of approximately 13.5 inches over 100 years

And not just in Monroe County… Trend of approximately 8 inches over 100 years

And not just in Florida… Trend of approximately 1 foot over 100 years

And not just in Florida… Trend of approximately 1 foot over 100 years

And not just in Florida… Trend of approximately 9 inches over 100 years

Global sea-level rise is already accelerating and projected to accelerate more

Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact Scenarios

ECF Regional Resiliency Action Plan Recommended Bounds for Planning for Sea Level Rise Daytona Beach Shores Tidal Gauge Upper bound Lower bound The ECFRPC worked with stakeholders from Brevard and Volusia Counties to develop a regional resilience action plan. As part of this effort, a regional approach to planning for sea level rise much like the south Florida regional climate compact. The action plan will be recommending a range approach with a lower and upper bound for assessments. The project team will be assessing the impacts associated with both the USACE High projection curve and the newest NOAA high projection.

Tell me which scenario is going to happen!!! A reasonable question for a scientist to be asked… Tell me which scenario is going to happen!!! https://www.123rf.com/photo_77744746_stock-vector-an-populist-politician-man-who-is-angry-and-spitting-steam-.html https://www.123rf.com/photo_77744744_stock-vector-an-populist-politician-woman-who-is-angry-and-spitting-steam-.html

The scientific bottom line from tide gauges is… that the sea is rising… but they don’t (yet) tell us much about 2100 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=goaKvjma-JU http://www.thegeektwins.com/2013/01/7-nerdiest-fictional-nerds-of-all-time.html

Future SLR is inherently linked to future greenhouse gas emission trajectories https://www.pacioos.hawaii.edu/shoreline/slr-hawaii/

For coastal governments, it’s best to plan for risk tolerance rather than a fixed SLR http://www.homebase.co.uk/cmsresource/image/42316/landscape_ratio3x2/440/300/563f6a641d7134842bc93d991c4fa65a/zj/how-to-erect-a-shed---header-image.jpg https://nuclear.gepower.com/content/dam/gepower-nuclear/global/en_US/images/hero-images/Nine-Mile-Point-Nuclear-Plant-cropped.jpg

General Timeline of Sea Level Rise Impacts on the Built Environment Stormwater drainage issues and wastewater infiltration Tidal flooding of yards and roads Tidal flooding of ancillary structures (pavilions, sheds, etc.) Ground floor tidal flooding of houses and commercial buildings Tidal flooding of high value critical infrastructure such as wastewater facilities and electrical substations

Stormwater mapping is interesting… https://www.flkeysnews.com/news/local/article160891829.html When the neighbors ask, “are you here to relocate the... CROCODILE!!!”

Satellite Beach, FL

Figure by Emily Niederman Stetson University (Class of 2017) xx Figure by Emily Niederman Stetson University (Class of 2017)

Stormwater Data

May 2011 – December 2015

Indian River Lagoon, Water Height, NAVD88 FT Year Indian River Lagoon, Water Height, NAVD88 FT With Army Corps High Sea Level Rise Mean Water Level Seasonal High Water Annual High Water 2015 -0.54 0.46 0.88 2040 0.31 1.31 1.73 2070 1.94 2.94 3.36 2100 4.24 5.24 5.66

Stormwater Inventory Base City of Satellite Beach, Florida

Stormwater Tidewater Inflow Assessment 2015 Water Levels Mean Water Level = Tidewater in pipe at least ½ of the year Seasonal High Water = Tidewater in pipe for ~ 1 month Annual High Water = Tidewater in pipe for ~ 1 day

Stormwater Tidewater Inflow Assessment 2040 Water Levels Mean Water Level = Tidewater in pipe at least ½ of the year Seasonal High Water = Tidewater in pipe for ~ 1 month Annual High Water = Tidewater in pipe for ~ 1 day

Stormwater Tidewater Inflow Assessment 2070 Water Levels Mean Water Level = Tidewater in pipe at least ½ of the year Seasonal High Water = Tidewater in pipe for ~ 1 month Annual High Water = Tidewater in pipe for ~ 1 day

Problems with flood-mapping FEMA regulatory 100-year flood zone

100-Year Depth Grid Using HAZUS-MH software (A FEMA Product!) Feet Above Ground

Problems with flood-mapping FEMA regulatory 100-year flood zone Satellite Beach, FL

100-Year Depth Grid Using FEMA HAZUS-MH software Satellite Beach, FL

Satellite Beach Fire Station Site-level flood assessment requested by city officials in July 2017

Nothing pictured is currently in a flood zone

LIDAR Elevations with survey control points and OPUS GPS

HAZUS results (current sea level)

When presenting to Satellite Beach City Council

Satellite Beach Fire Chief had just returned from Harvey response in Houston… http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/59a364da79bbfd2b008b53ae-2400/rtx3dkue.jpg

Alternative fire station site…

Alternative fire station site…

http://veronews.com/2017/11/09/satellite-beachs-new-firehouse-will-higher-drier/

New Smyrna Beach, FL

HAZUS 100-Year Coastal Flood (Current)

Facilities Assessment THE GOOD NEWS: No assessed facilities show SLR inundation vulnerability until 2070, and these 2070 vulnerabilities are only under the NOAA Extreme scenario Two essential public facilities showed vulnerability under the current HAZUS 100-Year Coastal Flood model: Fire station #50, @ 1400 State Road 44 Fire station # 52, @500 E 3rd Ave Five health facilities and five schools also show current vulnerability under the HAZUS Coastal Flood model

Fire Station #50 1400 SR 44 (Not located in the FEMA 100-Year Floodplain)

Fire Station #50 1400 SR 44 HAZUS 100-Year Coastal Flood Model Projects ~2’ of Flood Depth

Fire Station #52 500 E 3rd Ave (Not located in the FEMA 100-Year Floodplain)

Fire Station #52 500 E 3rd Ave HAZUS 100-Year Coastal Flood Model Projects ~4’ of Flood Depth

Recommendations from New Smyrna Beach Vulnerability Assessment Develop site-level assessments for critical infrastructure and essential facilities that HAZUS identifies as having potential vulnerability to a 100-Year Coastal Flood event Integrate sea-level rise scenarios into future updates of the City’s Stormwater Master Plan and roadway improvement projects Consider development of Adaptation Action Areas within built areas of the City at-risk from 2’ or less of sea-level rise (which is approximately the bounds of the 2040 NOAA Extreme SLR scenario)

Questions? Jason Evans, PhD Faculty Director and Associate Professor Institute for Water and Environmental Resilience Stetson University jevans1@stetson.edu