NAG Directors Meeting May

Ressource estimates o IEA, USGS Geological potential for shale gas in Denmark o Alun shale studies Present exploration in Denmark o Total in northern Jutland and in northern Zeeland, drilling postponed from 2013 to 2014 Political situation o Parliament discussions and questions, Government internally (Environment versus Energy) versus local authorities, NGOs International collaboration o EuroGeoSurveys GeoEnergy Expert Group, continuation from conventional assessments with USGS, new Baltic study, new EERA, future NAG??

3 Drilling activity UK The Netherlands Germany Sweden Poland / Baltic Poland / Podlasie Poland / Lublin France Denmark Bulgaria

o No discoveries in Alun shale o Ressources estimated by U.S. Energy Information Administration in o 23 Tcf !!! o Totally unrealistic, poor work compared to e.g. USGS assessments Map and Table from EIA, 2011

5 GIS model baseret på: Korlægning (Lassen & Tybo 2012), algoritmer (Petersen, Schovsbo, Nielsen 2013), geologiske modeller (Nielsen & Schovsbo 2013; Buchardt, Schovsbo, Nielsen 1997) © GEUS Km2 large prospectivie onshore area with Alun shale 50% with high expectations 32% in optimal depht range between 1.5 and 5 km Potential for shale gas in Denmark

High chance for some potential in the Alun shale, but no drilling yet Potential is restricted to relatively small areas in Denmark An assessment will be completed in 2013, and most likely updated after the first wells No numbers yet, but likely to be much lower than the 2011 EIA study General comments on shale gas in Denmark 6

Understand processes critical to formation, accumulation, occurrence, and alteration of shale gas resources o GEUS: traditional petroleum-related research Conduct scientifically robust assessments of those resources o GEUS: collaboration and data input Study impact of shale gas resource occurrence, production and use on environmental and human health o GEUS: groundwater, surface, seismicity 7

Licensing rounds Open Door

Pilot study of gas potential of the Lower Paleozoic Shales in the Baltic Basin together with USGS. The overall goal with this pilot study is get an independent, scientific based, assessment of the shale gas resources in the Baltic Basin. It includes on- and offshore areas in the following countries: Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Germany. The European geological surveys has the data and knowledge on the specific shale stratigraphy, sedimentology, petrography etc. By combining the knowledge from each survey into a basin wide synthesis, knowledge is shared and the end product improved. USGS has built up, through their work in the US, a vast experience in assessing the shale gas potential. It is hoped that the pilot will develop into a study, that covers the entire Europe, financed by the Horizon

10 NGU PGI SGU GEUS BGR EGK LEGMA ?? LGT

EERA Shale Gas Awareness Event ENEA EU Liaison Office Brussels, February 28th 2013 The Joint Programme on Shale Gas has been unanimously approved by the EERA Executive Committee during their meeting 17 th April

Assessment of shale gas potential Technology for safe exploitation Environmental impact & footprint Energy and carbon emissions Regulations, market and policy issues Public perception Basin Scale Architecture Micro-scale characterisation Methods for Shale Gas reserves estimation Subtask 1 Subtask 2 Subtask 3 Subtask 1 Subtask 2 Subtask 3 Subtask 1 Subtask 2 Subtask 3 Subtask 1 Subtask 2 Subtask 3 Subtask 1 Subtask 2 Subtask 3 GEUS Peter Britze SINTEF Maria Barrio TNO Jan ter Heege LNEG Machado Leite ECN Jeroen de Joode UKERC John Loughhead ukerc.ac.uk TNO, Rene Peters,