Congressional Elections GOVT 2305, Module 10

Congress is Really unpopular

People say that most members of Congress deserve defeat Throw the bums out!

But not my congressman People like their own representative better than most members of Congress, but the “like” percentage is dropping. Will that impact 2014 election results?

Incumbents usually win The overwhelming majority of House incumbents seeking reelection win. In 2014, for example, the reelection rate for House incumbents was 95 percent.

Incumbency advantages Incumbents are better known than most challengers Incumbents can usually raise more money than their opponents. * Incumbents have money for trips home * Incumbents have staff to generate press releases * Incumbents can take credit for bringing spending projects to the district

House races are local races House incumbents benefit from the tendency of voters to regard House races as local contests. House members running for reelection stress personal qualities and the services they provide their districts. Even though polls show that a majority of Americans often disapprove of the job that Congress as a whole is doing, many incumbent members of Congress enjoy strong approval ratings in their districts. Who is this? U.S. Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee

Safe districts and Swing Districts Most districts are safe for one party on the other because of districting or because of residential patterns. Relatively few districts can be described as swing district. A swing district can potentially be won by either political party.

Safe Districts Most congressional districts are safe for one party or the other. Consider the 18th congressional district in Texas, which is represented by Sheila Jackson Lee. Representative Lee was reelected in 2012 with 75 percent of the vote. In 2012, Obama won 76 percent of the vote in the district. The 18th is a safe Democratic district.

The cartoon refers to the 2010 midterm election, a Republican sweep. Midterm elections Historically, the political party holding the White House loses seats in the House of Representatives in midterm elections. On average, the president’s party loses 30 House seats in the midterm. In 2010, Democrats lost 63 seats, the most since 1938. The cartoon refers to the 2010 midterm election, a Republican sweep.

Just say no Many voters participating in the 2010 election wanted to send a message to President Obama and for most of them the message was negative. Only a fourth told polltakers that they were voting to support the president compared with 37 percent who said they were voting to oppose him.

Senate elections are more competitive Senate constituencies are more diverse than House districts Incumbent senators typically face stronger challengers than House members Research has found that voters tend to perceive Senate races as national election contests.

Crystal Ball for 2016

What You Have Learned * Why are incumbent members of Congress running for reelection usually successful? * Are most congressional districts competitive between the parties or safe for one party or the other? * Why does the president’s party usually lose seats in a midterm election? * How are Senate elections different from House elections?