POPULATION & DEMOGRAPHIC PYRAMIDS TRANSITION

Demographic Transition Model Demographic Transition - the change in population characteristics of a country to reflect medical technology or economic and social development. Stage 1 Very high CBR Very High CDR Very Low NIR Stage 2 Still high CBR Rapidly declining CDR Very high NIR Stage 3 Rapidly declining CBR Moderately declining CDR Moderate NIR Stage 4 Very low CBR Low, slightly increasing CDR 0 or negative NIR

Demographic Transition

Demographic Transition Model STAGE 1 (8000 BCE to 1750 CE) RECAP Characteristics: -food supply & farming unpredictable, thus CBR and CDR fluctuated frequently (ex. Hunters & gatherers) CBR: High 40-50 / 1,000 CDR: High 40-50 / 1,000 NIR: little to none; less than 0.05%, Long doubling times of the order of 1-5,000 yrs. Today, no country in the world is in Stage 1. Stage One is sometimes referred to as the "High Stationary Stage" of population growth

Demographic Transition- STAGE 2 “Population Explosion” Characteristics: 2nd agricultural revolution takes places & the beginning of the Industrial Revolution N. America & Europe entered Stage 2 after 1750 w/ IR Medical Revolution Medical tech. invented in Europe & N. America diffused into LDC such as penicillin, vaccines, & insecticides; therefore pop. lives longer Africa, Asia, & Latin America entered around 1950 CBR: High 40+ / 1,000 Crude Death Rate: Lower 15 / 1,000 Natural Increase Rate: Very High 25+/1,000 Doubling Time: 18-20 yrs.

STAGE 2 “Population Explosion” Change in the age structure of the pop. The decline in death rates in Stage 2 entails the increasing survival of children. Population becomes increasingly youthful, b/c takes time for culture to change and due to religious beliefs

Demographic Transition - STAGE 3 RECAP As the wealth and education of a country increases, social norms, and use of contraception dictate the birth of fewer children per woman. Many people live in cities that are not accommodating to large families Crude Birth Rate: Lower 20 / 1,000 Crude Death Rate: Low 10 / 1,000 Natural Increase Rate: Low 10 / 1000 Pop. Continues to grow b/c CBR is higher than CDR Doubling Time: about 65 yrs.

Demographic Transition - STAGE 4 4th stage sees the population increase rate again at 0. This stage reflects a highly industrialized, educated society. More women in workforce, birth control methods, later marriages, better healthcare Crude Birth Rate: Low 10 / 1,000 Crude Death Rate: Low 10 / 1,000 Natural Increase Rate: virtually None 0 / 1,000 Zero Population Growth is defined at the TRF that results in a lack of change in the total pop. Over a long term TRF of about 2.1 produces ZPG

Population Population Terms Population Growth Population Distribution Population Density Population Characteristics Population Pyramids Demographic Transition Solutions to Population Growth

Solutions to Population Growth Education Birth Control Socialization Abortion Sterilization Government mandate Population redistribution

Solutions to Population Growth Migration to resource rich areas Empowerment of Women $ for contraception & education Improving farming techniques in poor areas Sterilization Educating men w/ responsibility for birth control Changing cultural norms to value girls

Solutions to Population Growth Addressing traditional religious values that may encourage gender preference and large families Starvation Medical technology - costs of maintaining vulnerable populations (old & young) Disease Biological Warfare

Solutions to Population Growth Redistribution of wealth - improve standard of living for poor so that children aren’t as necessary Addressing government policies to deal with their growing populations Environmental pollution causing higher death rates

Population Futures: China, India, Japan Declining pop. Discourages immigration Faces a labor shortage With more women in workforce can lead to even lower birth rate and lower NIR

Population Futures: China, India, Japan After independence in 1947 CDR sharply declined, but CBR remained high Due to lg. pop. growth the gov’t enacted a national family- planning program (ex. birth control distribution, abortions, sterilizations) Programs went away due to opposition to the sterilization Current gov’t programs have emphasized education but w/ limited success Sterilization is still #1 birth control method

Population Futures: China, India, Japan One Child Policy: adopted in 1980 has been success in reducing growth rates Pros: couples get financial subsidies, long maternity leave, better houses, land Other ways China has decreased growth rates: free contraceptives, abortions, & sterilizations Policy has been relaxed more in urban areas, and couples can pay to have an additional child