SMALL (and simple) Is USEFUL Simple Models as aids for Higher Level Military Decision Making 21st ISMOR Moshe Sharvit Thinkware Ltd. hgrtmr@zahav.net.il 7/15/2019

Examples of H.L. Issues Force structure Relating operational means to strategic ends Force sizing Acquisition of major w/s 7/15/2019

Main Points “Interacting with DM” and “The use and abuse of simple models” – not mutually exclusive Simple models have some important uses as aids to H.L. decision making 7/15/2019

The “socio-analytic” situation Analytic community Analyst DM Problem Model Methodology in general and models in particular are functions not only of the problem at hand but also of the DM and the “organizational culture” within which the analysis is conducted. 7/15/2019

The “socio-analytic” situation Analytic community Analyst DM Problem Model Methodology in general and models in particular are functions not only of the problem at hand but also of the DM and the “organizational culture” within which the analysis is conducted. “Organizational culture” 7/15/2019

Problem Characteristics Squishy; ill defined problems Undefined goals – no clear “objective function” Complex relation of operational means to strategic goals Uncertainty – cannot be reduced to a probability distribution Multi-criteria “Soft” criteria - unquantifiable Paucity of reliable data 7/15/2019

Implications What is it all about? Optimization is rarely sought Robustness is of the essence Value judgments 7/15/2019

Perceptions of Analyst’s Expertise Technical Expert* Systems analysis expert *e.g.: munitions effectiveness, search theory, logistics etc. 7/15/2019

Analyst & DM: Domains of Expertise Technical expert vis-à-vis the DM – Little or no overlap - analyst possesses “professional authority” Sys. Analyst vis-à-vis the DM - Significant overlap. Interaction: not authority but Persuasion in this case Analyst’s parlance, models and other tools of trade should be communicable to non-members of the analytic community 7/15/2019

The Analyst’s Role & the Complexity of Models Opaque vs. Transparent models Complex, mathematically sophisticated models tend to place the Analyst in the “Surrogate DM” position Disregard of soft, unquantifiable variables leads to the “bean-counter” trap 7/15/2019

“Utilization Success” (Goeller) Main uses of Simple Models Problem formulation Generation of alternatives Estimation of consequences Rejection of alternatives Selection of preferred alternative Promotion of preferred alternative Implementation 7/15/2019

In Conclusion “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler”. Albert Einstein 7/15/2019

The End 7/15/2019

Problem formulation: The Role of the Model (after E. Quade) Provide a depiction of reality Provide a perspective of reality At the higher operational and strategic levels it is difficult to achieve a reasonably accurate depiction of reality using quantitative models 7/15/2019

Model needs to be relevant to a variety of particular situations Model need not encompass the whole issue; elucidate an aspect of the problem Model needs to be relevant to a variety of particular situations “validation by consent” 7/15/2019

Problem formulation: Uses of simple models Gain understanding through: identification of system elements identification of interplays and interdependencies (synergy, etc.) Outline basic dilemmas An aid to the establishment of criteria Outline basic alternatives 7/15/2019

Example - Countering SSM’s: Interception & counter-attack Impacts c.a. only No response Int. only Vertical axis – number of warhead impacts in own territory per day; White graph – assuming no response; constant enemy effort. Yellow graph – assuming interception only; Pink – counter attack, no interception (showing delayed effect); Green – combined effect. c.a. + int. Time 7/15/2019

Some issues raised Mix proportions Temporal differences: early period vs. later period # of interceptors Operational (systemic) effect of each weapon system mop 7/15/2019

Rejection of alternatives Example: replacement of old weapon systems Limited budgets but plenty of w/s acquisition opportunities. To pass the test the candidate w/s needs to have a decisive overall advantage over the incumbent w/s otherwise There is probably a better opportunity A simple model may provide a bound on cost/effectiveness ratios 7/15/2019

An example: Selection of Fighter A/C Cost (LCC): f1 /f2 = approx. 2 Effectiveness: f1 selected if either: f1 has unique, extremely important, capabilities; or f1 clearly outperforms f2 in almost every major category by at least 2:1. 7/15/2019