Odds vs. Probabilities Odds ratio in SPSS (Exp(B)) is an odds rather than a probability Odds = success/failure Probability = Likelihood of success for.

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Presentation transcript:

Odds vs. Probabilities Odds ratio in SPSS (Exp(B)) is an odds rather than a probability Odds = success/failure Probability = Likelihood of success for any one person

Null vs. Specified Model Null model Odds Ratio = 26/24 = 1.0833 Specified Model Odds Ratio = 1.7313 (e .549 where e = 2.718) What are a single person’s odds of passing given a one unit change in Aptitude? = Prior odds of passing x increase due to 1 point aptitude = 1.0833 x 1.7313 = 1.8758

Probability Odds = x/(1-x) where x = probability of occurrence of event (i.e., passing) 1.8758 = x/(1-x) Solve for x, x = .652 Conclusion: A one unit increase in aptitude, increases the probability of being successful from 52% to 65.2%