Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist Crop Market Outlook Grundy County Fair Grundy Center, Iowa July 20, 2016 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Area Planted (mil. acres) 97.3 95.4 90.6 88.0 94.1 Yield (bu./acre) 123.1 158.1 171.0 168.4 168.0 Production (mil. bu.) 10,755 13,829 14,216 13,601 14,540 Beg. Stocks 989 821 1,232 1,731 1,701 Imports 160 36 32 60 40 Total Supply 11,904 14,686 15,479 15,392 16,281 Feed & Residual 4,315 5,040 5,324 5,200 5,500 Ethanol 4,641 5,124 5,225 5,275 Food, Seed, & Other 1,397 1,369 1,360 1,367 1,375 Exports 730 1,920 1,864 1,900 2,050 Total Use 11,083 13,454 13,748 13,692 14,200 Ending Stocks 2,081 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 6.89 4.46 3.70 3.65 3.40 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Area Planted (mil. acres) 77.2 76.8 83.3 82.7 83.7 Yield (bu./acre) 40.0 44.0 47.5 48.0 46.7 Production (mil. bu.) 3,042 3,358 3,927 3,929 3,880 Beg. Stocks 169 141 92 191 350 Imports 41 72 33 25 30 Total Supply 3,252 3,570 4,052 4,145 4,260 Crush 1,689 1,734 1,873 1,890 1,925 Seed & Residual 105 107 145 109 125 Exports 1,317 1,638 1,843 1,795 1,920 Total Use 3,111 3,478 3,862 3,794 3,970 Ending Stocks 290 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 14.40 13.00 10.10 9.05 9.50 Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

Corn Plantings Top: 2016 Plantings Bottom: Change from last year Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

Soy Plantings Top: 2016 Plantings Bottom: Change from last year Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

Corn Crop Conditions Sum of Good to Excellent Ratings Source: USDA-NASS

Soybean Crop Conditions Sum of Good to Excellent Ratings Source: USDA-NASS

Early Corn Yield Estimate

Early Soy Yield Estimate

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 14 14

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Strength of the U.S. Dollar Source: Federal Reserve

Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA and CME

Corn Grind for Ethanol

Ethanol Stocks

Current Corn Futures 3.56 3.28 Source: CME Group, 7/19/2016

Current Soybean Futures 9.73 9.00 Source: CME Group, 7/19/2016

2015/16 Crop Margins

2016/17 Crop Margins

Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/