Climate change and European water policy Robert Wilby Climate Change Science Manager Environment Agency of England and Wales

EU Water Framework Directive: climate sensitive, yet means of adaptation 2004 2006 2015 2012 2007 2008 2009 Source: Adapted from EA (2004)

Projected regional climate change by the 2020s Temperature: ‘Early bird’ European summer temperature anomalies under medium-high emissions. Source: Hadley Centre 2020s Precipitation: ‘Noisy bird’ Summer precipitation anomalies downscaled for the Thames Basin. Source: Diaz-Nieto and Wilby (2005) 2020s

Example impacts of climate change: good ecological status

UK Presidency Workshop on Adaptation London 9th November 2005 Recommended actions: Monitoring and risk assessment Integrated sectoral policies Clearly defined roles Effective communication Tools for integrated assessment Research key knowledge gaps Changes in summer precipitation by the 2080s under SRES A2 emissions projected by four RCMs Source: Frei (pers. comm.)

UK Presidency Workshop on Adaptation London 9th November 2005 Two key questions emerge: What steps can be taken to factor climate change into the first RBMP cycle? What longer-term strategies would enable Europe to evolve a more coherent framework for water adaptation? Summer 1995 Derwent Reservoir, UK Source: Nick Jacoby

options to incorporate climate change First RBMP cycle (2009-2015): options to incorporate climate change Possible actions include: Set up a preparatory group to review MS adaptation activities Examine adaptation opportunities through the WFD Share best practice amongst MS Undertake a Pan-European risk assessment of all RBDs Develop seasonal forecasting capability for Europe West-Wide Seasonal Hydrologic Forecast System: April-July 2006 outlook. Source: University of Washington

2nd and 3rd RBMP cycles (2015+): towards a more coherent framework Possible actions include: Shift emphasis from supply- to demand-side measures Link adaptation to payments Harness EU research by involvement of end-users Integrated assessments of adaptation options Projected peak nitrate concentrations in the River Kennet for different adaptation measures under climate change

Concluding remarks: next steps Possible outcomes include: Review of strategies for adapting to climate change (monitoring, intercalibration) Preparatory group on water policy and climate change Pan-European assessment of RBDs most at risk Workshop on research links ahead of FP7