Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock. Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock.

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Presentation transcript:

Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock

Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock

Current situation Inputs Outlook for 2011

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

Input situation and outlook

INPUTS Demand for fertilizers Fuel costs Equipment costs PRICES RECEIVED Number of hay consuming units. Economy Acres of hay

Tightening Supplies Increasing demand Political unrest Steady to higher prices for 2011 and 2012

More corn acres Increasing South American demand Strength of US dollar Price of natural gas = Steady to higher fertilizer prices in

Source: University of Georgia

Projected Supply and Demand

ALL HAY PRODUCTION 2010 (1000 Tons)

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

High beef cattle prices are good for at least two reasons: Suggests herd expansion is coming soon Makes it more economical to feed cows hay Dairy herd continues to consolidate Larger farms tend to be more specialized and willing to contract with local or regional growers. Increasing emphasis on forage-based systems increases demand for hay or baleage. Rapidly expanding goat and sheep market provides another often overlooked target market.

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

ItemU.S. All Hay Southeastern All Hay Stocks May Total Production Total Supply Disappearance Ending Stocks Season Average Price$131 per ton $125-$135 per ton Good quality Bermuda Hay

Source: University of Georgia

2011 could be a very interesting one for hay producers. Tight supplies and an improving economy will likely increase demand. However, higher input prices could reduce costs enough to lower profits.

Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock